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Energy Taiwan 2021 Wrap-Up I: Market outlook

December 10, 2021 Alan Tu

TW EN

Energy Taiwan 2021

Energy Taiwan 2021, one of the biggest events of energy industry in Taiwan, took place on Dec. 8 through 10. Co-organized by SEMI and the Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA), the exhibition this year covered solar energy, wind energy, smart energy storage, and hydrogen energy. The PV industry, having been gloomy amid global supply chain crunch, sees a slim of light for next year. PV InfoLink provides updates and outlook for the Taiwanese PV industry. 

Updates

This year, the Taiwanese module sector sees even shorter EVA and polysilicon supply, as Chinese authorities reinforced energy-intensity control and power rationing in September. Price hikes of polysilicon and BOM, such as glass, EVA, and aluminum frames, pushed up module production costs. Against the backdrop of polysilicon prices increases and demand outstripped supply, robust end user demand and module makers’ reluctance to sell pushed module prices to year high.

In response to rising PV station installation costs, the Ministry of Economic Affairs held a meeting to determine FIT rates for renewable energies on October 21, resolving to add NTD 0.2245/kWh for solar energy’s FIT rate. Consequently, module demand appeared robust in November and December, with system integrators hoarding. Doubled with deferred projects and some utility-scale tenders connecting to the grid next year, module makers have been fully booked for the first quarter, and even the second quarter next year.

Despite great order volumes, profits shrink this year due to rising production costs. Presently, as inventories are fully booked, new trading volumes are low, allowing prices to sustain at USD 0.47-0.50/W; some offered quotes higher than USD 0.50/W. 

This year, lofty prices for Taiwanese modules set back system integrators. Should there be more than USD 0.1/W of price difference between modules from Southeast Asia and Taiwanese modules after VPC subsidy, imports of the former will increase, taking up market share, pressuring Taiwanese module sector. 

Outlooks

According to data from the Bureau of Energy, 1,297 MW of PV capacity was installed during January and October this year, a 22% YoY increase. As of this October, cumulative installed capacity reached 7,114 MW. As prices will decline in the first half of next year, Taiwan is expected to see 2 GW of solar demand, still a long way off from fulfilling goal set by the Ministry of Economic Affairs to reach 20% electricity share, namely 20 GW of installed PV capacity, by 2025.

Based on price forecast of PV InfoLink, mono-Si wafer price hike ended last month, as inventory piled up amid low module utilization rates and sagging demand from the cell sector. Wafer prices dropped significantly in the second half of this month, with prices for M6 wafers dipping lower than that of G1. In the meantime, BOM, such as EVA and glass prices, slipped. Module prices will gradually pare back in the first half of next year, considering order delivering schedule of the upstream. FIT rates are purportedly rising next year, to which, and upstream price trends, will module makers pay close attention.

At the Energy Taiwan this year, manufacturers presented novel products. For more product details, please refer to other Energy Taiwan recaps by PV InfoLink. 

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