Lithium prices remain rangebound at elevated levels; average cell and system prices edge up

Lithium ore and lithium salt

Lithium carbonate prices have remained rangebound at elevated levels recently, with the price range narrowing from the previous period.

Updates as of April 7:

• Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)

Price range: USD 2,200-2,260/MT

Average price: USD 2,230/MT

Up 8.3% from the previous periods

• Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot)

Price range: RMB 150,000–160,000/MT

Average price: RMB 155,000/MT

Up 4.0% from the previous period

On the supply-side, disruptions remain concentrated mainly on the mining segment. Recent market chatter suggests that progress has been made toward restoring exports from Zimbabwe, with a prevailing view that the government may ease restrictions in phases through mechanisms such as export taxes, requirements linked to lithium sulfate capacity buildout, and quota management, although the timing and pace of implementation remain uncertain. In Australia, the current relative tightness in diesel supply and declining diesel inventories have so far remained an operational and cost issue, without materially affecting output. In addition, Australian spodumene shipments have generally remained at elevated levels in recent weeks, while miners can still mitigate fuel-related shutdown risks through external procurement. Overall, although supply on the mining side has not contracted across the board, its marginal easing is now clearly weaker than that of lithium salts against the backdrop of low inventories, ongoing destocking, and recurring supply disruptions.

On the demand side, demand from the energy storage segment has remained relatively stable, while that from the EV segment has generally come in below market expectations. According to the data from China’s Passenger Car Association (CPCA), China’s retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 784,000 units in March 2026, down 21% YoY and below prior market expectations. Over the same period, wholesale sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 1.126 million units, flat YoY and notably stronger than retail performance. This suggests that automakers have maintained a solid pace of production and exports, while the recovery in end-market retail demand remains weak, leaving dealers under more visible pressure. Tensions in the Middle East and persistently high oil prices have also, to some extent, supported exports of NEVs to non-China markets. Overall, the power battery supply chain is not uniformly bearish, but the recovery in demand in China remains relatively weak.

Market inventories have continued to decline in recent weeks, although the pace of destocking has slowed compared with the previous period, mainly due to slower arrivals at port, weaker purchasing appetite after earlier restocking by enterprises, and tight supply on the mining side. Taken together, the market remains caught between bullish and bearish factors. Tightness on the mining side has not yet fully translated into broad-based tightness in the lithium salt segment, suggesting that lithium carbonate prices are still likely to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the short term, while the current supply-demand structure points to limited further upside. If mining-side disruptions ease and supply-side releases unfold as expected, prices may still face some room for correction.
 

Energy storage cells in China

Transaction price levels for energy storage cells continued to edge slightly higher in recent weeks.

According to the latest data, prices for LFP prismatic cells are as follows:

• 100 Ah: RMB 0.420-0.475/Wh, averaging RMB 0.448/Wh; up 1.1% from the previous period.

• 280 Ah: RMB 0.340-0.400/Wh, averaging RMB 0.370/Wh; up 1.4% from the previous period.

• 314 Ah: RMB 0.335-0.395/Wh, averaging RMB 0.365/Wh; up 0.7% from the previous period.

Mainstream newly signed orders are generally concluded at prices above RMB 0.350/Wh.

By format, 280 Ah cells are priced slightly higher than 314 Ah cells, primarily due to relatively limited available capacity and a narrower range of compatible downstream projects compared with 314 Ah cells. Meanwhile, supported by improved expectations for residential storage orders outside China, smaller-capacity models such as 100 Ah, 72 Ah, and 50 Ah have continued to command a premium, and overall supply may remain relatively tight throughout the year. According to market checks, some manufacturers that have already started mass production of the next-generation 500+ Ah large-format cells, which were a key focus among major suppliers at the energy storage expo (ESIE) in Beijing in early April are currently quoting slightly above 314 Ah cells.

Currently, cell prices are still supported primarily by the cost side: lithium salt prices remain elevated; while prices for some materials such as copper, aluminum, and electrolyte have eased from earlier highs, the decline has not been enough to materially pull down the overall cost base. Demand still lends support to prices, but its role has shifted from actively pushing prices higher to providing a floor. On the one hand, order books across the industry remain full, and short-term supply-demand conditions have not yet loosened materially. On the other hand, system integrators are becoming less able to absorb high-priced cells, while buyers’ willingness to bargain has notably increased.

Overall, energy storage cell prices in China have entered a phase of high-level bargaining, with limited room for further upside. The current core price level is still mainly sustained by tightness in upstream resources and cost rigidity. Once lithium carbonate and cathode material prices begin to trend downward, however, cell prices may see some marginal easing. In the short term, this could show up in the form of longer price negotiations and slower actual deal flow.
 

Energy storage system (ESS) in China

Quoted prices for energy storage systems (ESS) in China have continued to rise moderately in recent weeks, as the cost pass-through from earlier cell price increases has gradually materialized at the system level.

Prices are as follows, based on the latest data:

• DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.45-0.53/Wh, averaging RMB 0.49/Wh, up 2.1% from the previous period.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.81-0.87/Wh, averaging RMB 0.84/Wh, up 1.2% from the previous period.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.51-0.64/Wh, averaging RMB 0.58/Wh, up 1.8% from the previous period.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.48-0.55/Wh, averaging RMB 0.51/Wh, up 2.0% from the previous period.

Judging from recent tender results, the price level for four-hour ESS has largely stabilized above RMB 0.50/Wh, while the earlier phase of excessive price suppression in long-duration systems is gradually being corrected. Meanwhile, tender-side screening criteria for integrators continue to tighten. Evaluation criteria have shifted from simple price comparison to a more comprehensive assessment covering pricing, qualifications, execution capability, operational performance, and delivery experience. A company’s ability to win bids increasingly depends on its project track record, grid-connection compatibility, safety and regulatory compliance, product certification, and full-lifecycle service capabilities, rather than simply relying on stripped-down configurations, low prices, or short warranty terms. If elevated cell prices persist, system price quotes will still face upward pass-through pressure, although room for further increases will remain constrained by the pace of tender releases, bidding intensity, and integrators’ own profit tolerance.

On March 24, 2026, the General Office of China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the Guidelines for the Establishment of Energy Industry Standards Plan in 2026, which identifies new energy storage as a dedicated priority area. The document explicitly calls for advancing standards development in areas including electrochemical energy storage, energy storage equipment, and the intelligent operation of ESS. Meanwhile, within the power sector, it highlights key directions such as grid-forming technology, technical specifications for the functions of the power ancillary services market, technical requirements for market access by new types of participants including new energy storage, and source-grid-load-storage (SGLS) integration.

The core significance of this policy lies in bringing key industry pillars—including equipment, system operation, grid-forming capability, market access, and trading interfaces—into a unified standardization framework. This marks a shift away from the previous fragmented approach, in which these areas were advanced separately, toward a more unified, executable, and verifiable system. As implementation progresses, the policy is expected to improve predictability across the full project cycle, reduce delivery and execution risks arising from inconsistent technical standards, and further raise the importance of system integration, product certification, and O&M capabilities across the industry.

Against the backdrop of rising requirements for safety, grid connection, grid-forming capability, and market-based returns in China’s energy storage projects in 2026, this standards upgrade will continue to benefit leading companies with strengths in product consistency, project delivery, and long-term O&M capabilities. It will also provide strong support for the rollout of grid-side projects, standalone energy storage, and high-quality C&I energy storage projects.