Date June 19, 2024
Chief analyst Corrine Lin of InfoLink spoke at the conference organized by ees Europe on June 18 in Munich, offering insights into the energy storage industrial chain’s current state and prospects.

Capacity across the energy storage supply chain has become excessive, and looking by segments, the lithium carbonate sector has turned from tight supply in 2023 to surplus this year, according to Lin.

Lithium prices are expected to hover at 1.25-1.65 million dollars per metric ton this year, said Lin, adding that when lithium prices near 1.7 million dollars per metric ton, approximately at 1.67 million dollars, the market will be increasingly sitting at the fence, with purchase volume reducing and a greater opportunity for lithium prices to decline.

Underpinned by generous subsidies and over-optimistic demand anticipated by cell makers, cell capacities have been expanding rapidly, reaching nearly 550 GWh this year, while shipment has hit 270 GWh.

In the system sector, InfoLink estimates that around 50,000 system integrators entered the industry in 2023 due to lower entry threshold (lower than 300 million dollar per GWh for investment and less than 3 months of construction cycle), resulting in serious oversupply, said Lin.

Against the backdrop of oversupply, cell utilization rates remain below 50%. To stimulate demand, cell makers are expected to offer lower prices on the premise of securing profits.


280 Ah energy storage cell prices in China, Unit: USD/kWh

280 Ah energy storage cell prices in China,

From a price perspective, 280ah cell prices continue to decline this year, hitting USD 48.3/kWh now, according to InfoLink’s statistics. The price war is still escalating, driving down prices for energy storage systems. For now, system prices in Europe have dropped by 30% compared to the level at the end of 2023, according to Lin.

Meanwhile, growth potentials are emerging in overseas markets. Last year, cell shipments outside of China have surpassed that from China, with the market share expecting to rise continuously, from 2023's 54% to 57% this year.

Chief analyst Corrine Lin exchanged insights with industry leaders during a panel discussion (Photo: ees Europe)

Lin concluded the presentation with the impact of localization policies introduced by Europe and the U.S., such as the Net Zero Industry Act, which will drive Chinese cell makers to expand capacity overseas. 

InfoLink is launching the Energy Storage Cost and Price Trend Forecast Quarterly Report in the second half of the year, contact [email protected] to learn more.

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