Lithium prices retreat from premium amid volatility; storage cell prices continue to rise

Lithium mine and lithium salt

With supply-side disruptions easing recently, lithium spodumene and lithium carbonate prices have been volatile . Updates as of September 19:

• Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF):
  Price range: USD 835-849/MT
  Average price: USD 842/MT
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot):
  Price range: RMB 73,000–74,000/MT
  Average price: RMB 73,000/MT
  Both spot and average price are slightly lower than in early September.

Over the past two weeks, lithium carbonate prices initially fell and then edged up. On September 9, CATL convened a meeting in Yichun to accelerate the resumption of the lithium mine at Jianxiawo, with resume expectations briefly weighing on market sentiment. However, before substantial resumption occurs in Yichun, short-term prices are unlikely to see a sharp decline. Recent pre-holiday restocking and resilient demand have driven a modest rebound.

On the supply side, disruptions in China have temporarily subsided, with higher expectations of resumption. Non-Chinese supply remains broadly stable.

On the demand side, seasonal strength persists, with robust demand for both passenger EVs and energy storage, supporting growth in cathode materials and cell production.

In the near term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain range-bound.
 

Energy storage cells in China

Recent energy storage cell price quotes have continued to edge up slightly.

According to the latest data, prices for LFP prismatic cells are as follows:

• 100 Ah: RMB 0.340–0.405/Wh, averaging RMB 0.373/Wh.
• 280 Ah: RMB 0.260–0.335/Wh, averaging RMB 0.298/Wh.
• 314 Ah: RMB 0.258–0.340/Wh, averaging RMB 0.299/Wh.
• Price quotes for 280 Ah cells have remained flat MoM, while the prevailing transaction levels for 100 Ah and 314 Ah cells have moved slightly higher.

Recent price gains are primarily driven by strong demand, with second- and third-tier manufacturers increasing transaction prices by RMB 0.003–0.005/Wh. In Q3, costs remain supported by strong energy storage demand, high utilization rates at major cell makers, and lithium carbonate prices above RMB 70,000/MT.

Chinese companies are accelerating the deployment of projects in the Middle East and Australia. In China, utility-scale projects in Inner Mongolia and other regions, though launched before the end of June, are expected to be completed and grid-connected by late October, providing support to ESS cell demand in the coming one to two months.
 

Energy storage system (ESS) in China

ESS prices have seen limited changes recently. Prices are as follows, based on the latest data:

• DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.37-0.43/Wh, averaging RMB 0.40/Wh.
• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.74–0.79/Wh, averaging RMB 0.77/Wh.
• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.42–0.54/Wh, averaging RMB 0.48/Wh
• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.40-0.48/Wh, averaging RMB 0.44/Wh.

Some manufacturers have raised DC-side quotes amid rising cell prices, but the impact on China’s AC-side bidding remains limited. The lowest 4h ESS bids remain at RMB 0.39–0.40/Wh.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Agency (NEA) have recently issued the “Special Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027) .” China is projected to add over 100 GW of new capacity within three years, surpassing 180 GW by the end of 2027 and driving RMB 250 billion in direct project investment. The plan establishes the pricing mechanisms and introduces improvements to capacity pricing mechanisms for regulating resources, such as new energy storage. This provides clear guidance for lithium-ion-based new energy storage in 2026-2027. In the short term, with many participants and low market concentration in ESS integration, ESS prices remain at low levels.