Supply Chain Price and Cost Forecast Report — Now includes:
Price forecast for ⦁ 306 Ah cell in international markets ⦁ 4-hour liquid-cooled DC container ｜Request Sample 👇
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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | November 20, 2025 |
Lithium ore and lithium salt
Lithium carbonate prices have surged sharply in recent weeks. On November 19, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 briefly exceeded RMB 100,000/MT, the highest level since June 2024.
Updates as of November 20, 2025:
- Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF):
Price range: USD 1,080-1,090/MT
Average price: USD 1,085/MT
Up 17.9% MoM - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot):
Price range: RMB 85,000–92,000/MT
Average price: RMB 89,000/MT
Up 10.5% MoM
The recent sharp surge in lithium carbonate prices reflects a significant improvement in year-end supply–demand fundamentals and a strong resonance between futures market capital flows and sentiment. Market consensus suggests that key projects such as Jianxiawo are unlikely to resume production in the near term, resulting in limited expectations for incremental supply toward year-end.
On the demand side, activity in both the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors remains elevated, supporting continued inventory drawdowns for lithium carbonate. However, following the substantial price increase, the basis has weakened, with most downstream buyers continuing to procure only as needed.
Looking ahead, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax policy will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction from 2026 onwards. As a result, EV demand is expected to drop noticeably in 1Q26, while energy storage demand should remain comparatively stable. The current supply–demand tightness in the lithium carbonate market is likely to persist through December before gradually easing. With prices already at elevated levels, further upside momentum appears limited.
Energy storage cells in China
Recent price quotes for energy storage cells have continued to trend upward.
According to the latest data, prices for LFP prismatic cells are as follows:
- 100 Ah: RMB 0.350–0.420/Wh, averaging RMB 0.385/Wh
- 280 Ah: RMB 0.270–0.350/Wh, averaging RMB 0.310/Wh
- 314 Ah: RMB 0.270–0.350/Wh, averaging RMB 0.310/Wh
Since early November, leading manufacturers have secured order backlogs extending into 1Q26. Coupled with tight capacity and rising raw material costs, cell quotes have continued to increase.
According to market data:
- Lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆): Prices rose from RMB 79,000/MT in late October to RMB 149,000/MT in late November, up 90% MoM.
- Electrolytes used in LFP energy storage cells: Prices increased from RMB 17,500/MT in late October to RMB 24,500/MT in late November, up 40% MoM.
After two years of industry consolidation, the electrolyte sector has experienced a marked contraction in available capacity. The recent surge in demand has further exacerbated supply shortages. In the near term, energy storage cell prices are expected to remain elevated until upstream raw material prices ease and end-market demand begins to moderate.
Energy storage system (ESS) in China
ESS tender volumes and project sizes have temporarily contracted in China. With cell prices continuing to rise and leading suppliers of power conversion systems (PCS)p increasing prices in Q4, winning bid prices have seen a modest uptick.
Prices are as follows, based on the latest data:
- DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.37-0.48/Wh, averaging RMB 0.43/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.74–0.80/Wh, averaging RMB 0.77/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.44-0.56/Wh, averaging RMB 0.50/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.42-0.50/Wh, averaging RMB 0.46/Wh
Utility-scale tenders have declined noticeably in recent weeks, and winning bid prices have risen compared with September and October. Grid-forming storage projects have maintained an average premium of RMB 0.10-0.15/Wh over grid-following systems.
On November 10, China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration issued the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Consumption and Regulation of New Energy, further defining the future direction of China’s power system. The document targets establishing a coordinated, multi-level renewable-energy consumption regulation framework by 2030, with most incremental electricity demand met by new renewable generation and building a new-type power system by 2035 that supports high renewable penetration, smooth grid connection, diversified utilization, and efficient operation.
The policy sets out differentiated regional planning:
- Desert and Gobi bases will combine power export with local consumption, with clearer responsibilities for sending and receiving provinces.
- Southwest regions will advance integrated hydro–wind–solar development to improve outbound transmission utilization.
- Offshore wind projects will adopt a coordinated near-shore and deep-water far-offshore deployment, supported by a consolidated transmission network and focused on coastal-area consumption.
The document also highlights strengthening industry coordination to enhance renewable consumption and accelerating the development of a unified national power market.
Overall, the Guiding Opinions provide system-wide support for energy storage, from demand, market transactions, to dispatch, clarifying its future role and revenue pathways, and accelerating the sector’s shift toward higher efficiency, greater value, and deeper participation in system regulation.
