Supply Chain Price and Cost Forecast Report — Now includes:
Price forecast for ⦁ 306 Ah cell in international markets ⦁ 4-hour liquid-cooled DC container ｜Request Sample 👇
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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | December 22, 2025 |
Lithium ore and lithium salt
Lithium carbonate prices have remained elevated and moved higher recently.
Updates as of December 22:
- Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)
Price range: USD 1,250–1,330/MT
Average price: USD 1,290/MT
Up 17.3% from the previous period - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot):
Price range: RMB 95,000–102,000/MT
Average price: RMB 98,000/MT
Up 8% from the previous period
Lithium carbonate prices have continued to strengthen recently, driven primarily by two sets of expectations. First, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau in Jiangxi Province released a Public Notice on the Proposed Cancellation of 27 Mining Rights, planning to revoke 27 mining licenses. This has not only raised market concerns over the pace of regional lithium ore supply releases and regulatory compliance risks, but also led to a downward revision in expectations of effective supply. Second, while the first environmental impact assessment (EIA) disclosure for the Jianxiawo lithium mine project has been formally released, the market broadly expects that subsequent approvals and construction will still require a prolonged timeline. Meanwhile, expectations of continued inventory drawdowns during the off-season have strengthened, further reinforcing bullish sentiment.
In the imported spodumene market, while overall lithium concentrate arrivals have remained broadly stable, downstream players have locked in a substantial share of supply through long-term contracts. This has tightened spot market liquidity, significantly strengthening miners’ price-holding stance and directly driving a sharp increase in spodumene prices.
Overall, current prices of lithium ore and lithium salt have moved well beyond the typical cost-absorption capacity of downstream material segments. Capital-driven sentiment in the futures market continues to amplify upward price momentum. In the short term, a tug-of-war between bulls and bears is likely to persist at elevated levels.
Looking ahead, as the market enters the traditional off-season for power battery demand in 1Q26, lithium carbonate prices may face cyclical correction pressure should some mining projects resume production or incremental supply be gradually released.
Energy storage cells in China
Recent price quotes for energy storage cells have maintained their upward momentum. According to the latest data, prices for LFP prismatic cells are as follows:
- 100 Ah: RMB 0.365-0.425/Wh, averaging RMB 0.395/Wh (up RMB 0.01/Wh from the previous period)
- 280 Ah: RMB 0.285–0.350/Wh, averaging RMB 0.318/Wh (up RMB 0.008/Wh from the previous period)
- 314 Ah: RMB 0.285–0.350/Wh, averaging RMB 0.310/Wh (up RMB 0.008/Wh from the previous period)
Recent price increases have been underpinned by both cost pressures and supply–demand dynamics. On the upstream side, lithium carbonate prices have continued to climb to a new cyclical high, with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials moving higher in tandem. Meanwhile, prices of key electrolyte materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆) and vinylene carbonate (VC), as well as critical auxiliary materials including copper foil and aluminum foil, have remained elevated, significantly pushing up cell production costs.
From the supply perspective, leading cell manufacturers have maintained highly saturated production schedules in Q1. Utilization rates at some producers remain high, while a large volume of orders has already been locked in with fixed delivery timelines, leaving the industry with limited supply-side flexibility. On the demand side, momentum remains strong, particularly as tendering activity in non-China regions stays active and order volumes continue to grow, further reinforcing market support. Until a clear slowdown in demand or signs of easing upstream costs emerge, storage cell prices are expected to remain firm in the near term.
Energy storage system (ESS) in China
Winning bid price for ESS have seen increases in China. Prices are as follows, based on the latest data:
- DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.40-0.49/Wh, averaging RMB 0.45/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.76-0.82/Wh, averaging RMB 0.79/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.45-0.58/Wh, averaging RMB 0.52/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.43-0.52/Wh, averaging RMB 0.48/Wh
The primary driver behind the current price rebound is the pronounced upward pressure from rising costs. Grid-forming storage projects have maintained an average premium of RMB 0.10-0.20/Wh over grid-following systems.
Toward year-end, the number and scale of China’s ESS tenders have generally moderated, while qualification thresholds for system integrators have risen significantly.
More projects are now setting proven operating performance, dispatch records, and grid-connection compatibility and safety compliance as mandatory criteria, shifting the focus away from lowest-price bidding. Meanwhile, tightening requirements on warranty duration, availability performance, O&M response times, and spare-parts support are effectively limiting the scope for low-price competition through configuration reductions.
On December 15, the 2026 National Energy Work Conference was held in Beijing, focusing on the development of new-type energy and power systems and setting enhancing system flexibility as the central theme for the year’s key tasks. This direction not only aligns with the energy transition but also strengthens the role of new-type energy storage as a stabilizing backbone for power supply security, renewable integration, and system regulation, providing a clear and stable policy anchor for grid-side and standalone storage projects.
At the same time, the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10–11 explicitly called for intensified efforts to curb “involutionary” competition (often manifested in aggressive price competition), setting the overarching tone for industry governance in the year ahead.
Policy measures are expected to target segments under the greatest margin pressure, particularly cell materials and system integration. By tightening capacity monitoring, quality and consistency supervision, and tendering and contract enforcement, the scope for below-cost bidding and volume-driven price competition will be constrained. As a result, processing fees and pricing for cells and materials—including cathodes, separators, and electrolytes—are likely to become more rational. Price floors will become more resilient, with supply-chain price volatility expected to moderate and converge toward a cost-plus reasonable margin levels.
