Supply Chain Price and Cost Forecast Report — Now includes:
Price forecast for ⦁ 306 Ah cell in international markets ⦁ 4-hour liquid-cooled DC container ｜Request Sample 👇
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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | January 06, 2026 |
Lithium ore and lithium salt
Prices across the energy storage supply chain have continued to rise recently.
Updates as of January 6, 2026:
- Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)
Price range: USD 1,525–1,530/MT
Average price: USD 1,520/MT
Up 18.2% from the previous period - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot):
Price range: RMB 115,000–119,000/MT
Average price: RMB 117,000/MT
Up 19.1% from the previous period
Following New Year’s Day, prices of lithium ore and lithium carbonate rebounded sharply, driven primarily by a combination of market expectations of supply-side disruption and bullish capital sentiment. Recently, the State Council of China issued the Action Plan for Comprehensive Governance of Solid Waste, explicitly strengthening source reduction of industrial solid waste and, in principle, no longer approving beneficiation (ore processing) projects without self-owned mines or supporting tailings disposal facilities. As a result, market concerns have intensified that unresolved site-selection issues at the Jianxiawo tailings facility could further delay the resumption timeline. Over the past weekend, a U.S. strike on Venezuela heightened geopolitical risks in South America, amplifying market concerns over the potential spillover effects of “Donroeism” on the supply of key resources such as lithium, copper, and silver. This was further compounded by unverified reports of supply disruptions at Chilean lithium mines, reinforcing expectations of tightening supply condition.
On the supply side, the weekly pace of lithium carbonate destocking has continued to narrow, with no clear signs of an outright surplus emerging at this stage. On the demand side, downstream cathode material producers have successively announced plans for production cuts and maintenance. However, demand contributions from commercial vehicles and energy storage in 2026 are expected to exceed earlier expectations, potentially providing marginal support in Q1 and underpinning market confidence in downstream demand resilience.
Lithium prices having reached a new high over the past year. Looking ahead, while demand expectations remain relatively optimistic, prices are highly sensitive to capital flows and market sentiment and may therefore continue to fluctuate at elevated levels in the near term.
Energy storage cells in China
Recent price quotes for energy storage cells have maintained their upward momentum. According to the latest data, prices for LFP prismatic cells are as follows:
- 100 Ah: RMB 0.370–0.435/Wh, averaging RMB 0.403/Wh (up RMB 0.018/Wh from the previous period)
- 280 Ah: RMB 0.285–0.355/Wh, averaging RMB 0.320/Wh (up RMB 0.01/Wh from the previous period)
- 314 Ah: RMB 0.285–0.355/Wh, averaging RMB 0.320/Wh (up RMB 0.01/Wh from the previous period)
Upstream cost pressures for cells have intensified markedly in recent weeks. Effective January 1, 2026, leading lithium battery materials producers such as Lopal Tech. and Wanrun New Energy have implemented a uniform increase of RMB 3,000/MT in LFP processing fees. Currently, prices for energy-storage-grade LFP have exceeded RMB 40,000/MT, while electrolyte prices have surpassed RMB 34,000/MT, both standing at cyclical highs. Over the past two months, cumulative cost increases for energy storage cells have exceeded 10%, driving spot quotes from leading suppliers steadily higher.
Meanwhile, delivery lead times for cells have generally been pushed out beyond 1Q26. Producers remain reluctant to accept small-volume spot orders, keeping overall supply–demand conditions tight. As a result, the short-term price levels are expected to remain firm.
Energy storage system (ESS) in China
Winning bid prices for ESS have continued to rise in China. Prices are as follows, based on the latest data:
- DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.41–0.49/Wh, averaging RMB 0.45/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.76–0.83/Wh, averaging RMB 0.80/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.46-0.58/Wh, averaging RMB 0.52/Wh.
- AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.44-0.52/Wh, averaging RMB 0.48/Wh.
Bid price benchmarks across different system types edged up modestly, driven primarily by three factors. First, with the Lunar New Year approaching, the number and scale of tenders disclosed have contracted during this phase, leading suppliers to adopt a firmer pricing stance. Second, cost pass-through effects have become more pronounced, with rising cell prices combined with cost increases in certain segments directly pushing up system price quotes. Third, tender qualification thresholds have been raised, with greater weight placed on actual operational track records, grid-connection compatibility, safety and regulatory compliance, as well as warranty and availability requirements. These changes have further narrowed room for pure price competition.
On December 17, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly released the Basic Rules for the Medium- and Long-Term Power Markets, establishing medium- and long-term transactions as the foundation of a unified national power market. The rules further standardize mechanisms for cross-grid operating-area transactions and interprovincial mutual support, while enhancing the alignment across multi-year contracts, increased trading frequency, spot-market linkage, and clearer settlement standards. By strengthening the standardization of contracts and risk boundaries, the rules aim to make revenue pathways for energy storage participation more predictable and cash flows more stable, thereby improving financing accessibility for grid-side and standalone energy storage projects.
On the industry front, the CRRC Zhuzhou Institute recently released a direct procurement notice for approximately 20.06 GWh of energy storage cells from CATL, including around 8.04 GWh of 314 Ah cells and 12.02 GWh of 587 Ah cells. This move indicates that leading demand-side players are increasingly using direct procurement to lock in volumes and define supply and delivery schedules, marking a shift in procurement strategy from a sole focus on price toward greater emphasis on integrated supplier capabilities and delivery certainty. Against this backdrop, the scaled introduction of 587 Ah cells is further accelerating the penetration of large-capacity formats.
Signals from both policy and industry point to the same overarching trajectory: strengthening trading and delivery systems under high renewable penetration, and steering competition away from pure price undercutting toward capabilities centered on settlement certainty, financing readiness, and delivery execution. In 2026, room for aggressive low-price bidding in the cell materials and system integration segments is expected to continue narrowing, with price volatility moderating. Industry pricing is likely to shift more rapidly toward comprehensive competition based on execution capability, quality consistency, and full life-cycle value.
