Polysilicon, wafer, and cell makers have mostly completed the negotiation for orders in early-July, and thus the average trading price of multi-Si products didn’t fluctuate much, while that of mono-Si continued to reflect a downtrend this week. For modules, manufacturers have been pulling out products aggressively due to the “Section 201”, leading to higher prices in the US market.
Polysilicon orders for early-August have mostly been confirmed. The average trading price of polysilicon still reached RMB 120-122/kg like previously. As wafer demand remains stable in July, the polysilicon market is expected to witness steady prices recently.
There were barely any transactions for multi-Si wafers this week, prices stayed flat in China. But prices slightly increased in Taiwan due to the continuous short supply of multi-Si wafers and strong cell demand from Europe.
Mono-Si wafer prices have slightly declined this week. Following the lower conventional mono-Si cell prices, mono-Si wafer prices will be adjusted again next week.
Multi-Si cell prices have peaked, reaching RMB 1.8-1.83/W in China and US$ 0.230-0.233/W in Taiwan. Despite the strong multi-Si demand, demand may slowly weaken in late-July. By then, prices will be difficult to be maintained.
Demand of conventional mono-Si cells has plummeted in China. The average trading price has dropped from RMB 1.92-1.95/W last week to RMB 1.9-1.93/W this week. Since Chinese demand will keep declining after mid-July, prices may not start to drop significantly until next week, resulting in a price gap of only RMB 0.1/W between mono & multi-Si cells in China. Conventional mono-Si prices outside of China mostly stayed flat owing to the demand support from the overseas markets.
The module market will see complete different situations between China and the overseas in Q3. The short supply of mono-Si modules has been alleviated in China, with the spot price dropping to RMB 2.9-3.05/W. In addition, the order visibility is low for August.
The US market continued to witness higher prices due to the serious supply shortage. Currently, most of the demand comes from conventional multi-Si and high-efficiency mono-Si modules in the US. The price of conventional multi-Si has returned to US$ 0.38/W recently. 300W mono-Si PERC module is priced at above US$ 0.45/W as well. That’s why top-tier manufacturers that were imposed an anti-dumping and countervailing duty around 30% have begun to re-evaluate for the possibility of shipping local products to the US. Therefore, if the US prices keep increasing, it’s more likely for Chinese manufacturers to ship more products to the US.
Under the circumstances where overseas module makers are rushing to supply to the US market, supply shortage has started to appear in the European market too. Aside from the Southeast Asian manufacturers that originally suffered from tight supply, top-tier Indian manufacturers have been benefitted from it too. It’s estimated that the strong demand in the US and Europe will make module prices more stable in the overseas compare to Chinese local price in Q3.