Policy-driven price hikes are spreading, pushing up quotes across all segments

Polysilicon

Recent market developments show that Chinese polysilicon manufacturers are responding to the government’s call to “discourage price wars”. Several manufacturers plan to adjust quotes based on costs. Buyers remain cautious, with only small-volume purchases by firms with low inventories and no large-scale transactions this week.

Prices vary widely this week, ranging RMB 35-40/kg. Quotes have risen to high levels at RMB 49–50/kg, driven by recent market sentiment, with some offers to key clients at RMB 46-47/kg; however, no deals have been concluded at that level. Mainstream prices for China-made granular polysilicon stand at RMB 34-40/kg, with possible further fluctuation in line with prices of polysilicon chunks. Non-China suppliers continue to face shipment disruptions and lower utilization rates. While the average price holds at USD 19/kg, some suppliers, under sales pressure, have cut prices to USD 16–17/kg.

The key challenges remain funding constraints, polysilicon inventory clearance, and weak demand. While sales pressure persists, strong policy enforcement provides room for recovery. However, upside momentum may be limited, with actual transaction prices potentially seeing modest increases as buyers and sellers negotiate.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have stabilized this week, with mainstream formats holding steady at last week’s levels.

Transaction prices this week:

• 183N: RMB 0.85–0.88/piece. RMB 0.88/piece remains the dominant transaction price.

• 210RN: RMB 1.00–1.01/piece, with most bulk transactions trading at RMB 1.00/piece.

• 210N: RMB 1.18-1.20/piece. Large-volume transactions are trading at RMB 1.18/piece, indicating a temporary stabilization in the market.

Although end-market demand has yet to recover, polysilicon quotes have increased. High-priced transactions have emerged, gradually passing through to the wafer segment and providing support to the market. This week, some wafer manufacturers have raised their quotes, with 183N at RMB 1.00/piece, 210RN at RMB 1.15/piece, and 210N at RMB 1.35/piece. If actual transaction prices follow, it could help reduce long-term losses for wafer manufacturers.

Wafer manufacturers have continued production cuts this month. Coupled with rising polysilicon transaction prices, expectations for price stabilization or even a rebound are building. Notably, Chinese officials have emphasized the policy direction of “anti-price wars” and regulating polysilicon capacity, further reinforcing market expectations for a potential price recovery. Overall, downward pressure on wafer prices may ease, with sentiment showing signs of improvement, though it remains uncertain if quoted prices will lead to actual deals.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:

• Average price: RMB 0.23/W (flat)

• Price range: RMB 0.225–0.23/W

210RN & 210N:

• Average price: RMB 0.24/W (down)

• Price range: RMB 0.24–0.245/W

Policy-driven upstream price hikes are cascading through the supply chain amid improved market sentiment. Cell manufacturers are actively planning to raise quotes this week, though the scale and timing will hinge on ongoing price negotiations. Over the longer term, these policy shifts may help lift cell prices from their current cash-cost-level lows and support a return to healthier, more sustainable margins for manufacturers.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China has slipped to USD 0.034/W this week. Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has slipped to USD 0.030/W this week. Due to shipping lead time, this week’s prices reflect previous low-priced orders, resulting in continued price declines. However, once Chinese cell price hikes take effect, prices in USD are expected to rise accordingly. For higher-end Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices stay at USD 0.11–0.12/W, averaging USD 0.12/W.

The implementation of the U.S. reciprocal tariff has been postponed again to August 1. While recent preliminary rates for Southeast Asian production hubs such as Indonesia appear unfavorable, final policy details have yet to be confirmed. Prices for Southeast Asian cells exported to the U.S. have remained largely unchanged. InfoLink will continue to monitor U.S. policy developments and provide a comprehensive analysis once they are finalized.
 

Module prices in China

Module prices have remained flat this week. June deliveries in China were mostly for earlier replenishment projects. While demand has weakened, the impact has yet to be reflected in prices. For ground-mounted projects, TOPCon module deliveries are mainly priced at RMB 0.60–0.68/W, with some low-priced orders still being fulfilled.

Notably, distributed project prices have shown signs of stabilization this week after the previous week’s decline, with some Tier-1 manufacturers even raising quotes by RMB 0.01–0.02/W. New orders that had fallen to RMB 0.62–0.65/W are now being negotiated at RMB 0.65–0.67/W. Most manufacturers continue to prioritize price stability while monitoring whether upstream price hikes will materialize as expected.

Module prices this week:

TOPCon glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60-0.72/W

• Bulk delivery: RMB 0.64-0.68/W

Ground-mounted projects:

• Prices stay at RMB 0.64–0.68/W amid falling demand.

• Lower-end prices (from previous deliveries): RMB 0.60–0.63/W

Distributed spot market: 

• Price drops have driven recent changes, as weak demand has prompted some manufacturers to lower their quotes.

• Some July orders under negotiation: RMB 0.62–0.65/W

Outlook:

• Module prices may dip further in July.

PERC glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

• RMB 0.70–0.83/W

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.70–0.78/W

• Distributed projects: RMB 0.70–0.75/W

N-TBC:

• Delivery volume: Fewer this week

• Price trend: Flat from the previous week due to insufficient volume

• Recent transaction prices: RMB 0.73–0.80/W

• Current quotes: RMB 0.73–0.79/W

• Note: Prices exclude distributor and inventory-based sales.
   

Module prices in non-China markets

TOPCon module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.16/W in India. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have been buying cells from Southeast Asia.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.083–0.085/W. Manufacturers are gradually shifting more shipments to non-Europe markets. For Q4 orders, price negotiations are trending downward, approaching USD 0.08/W. BC module prices vary significantly by application, leading to wider price gaps. Due to low transaction volumes this week, prices have been flat from the previous week.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.09/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. tariff policies, suppliers and project developers are still negotiating new quotes. Current trading prices are approaching USD 0.27–0.30/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally-made modules are also trending upward.