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Updated October 17, 2019

Poly Price

This week, polysilicon prices in China maintained their previous levels at RMB 75/kg for mono-Si wafers and RMB 60/kg for multi-Si wafers. The entire market is watching the movement of wafer prices closely; if wafer prices fall at the end of October, it may exert pressure on polysilicon prices.

As Chinese polysilicon makers are not going to maintain their equipment in November, polysilicon supply in China will increase. However, there could be ramifications for the upstream sector unless domestic demand come back strong. On the whole, polysilicon prices may decline somewhat in November along with falling wafer prices.
 
Chinese manufacturers are still busy with foreign trade transactions, and polysilicon prices remained constant. Since exchange rates are stable, how foreign polysilicon prices will vary for overseas markets depends on supply-and-demand conditions in China.
 

Wafer Price

Shipments of multi-Si cells subsided this week, amplifying market expectations for multi-Si wafer prices to decrease—indeed, some wafer makers have started to reduce their multi-Si wafer prices although most wafer makers are in the midst of filling orders from the previous period. There was not much change in wafer prices this week; yet, historical records suggest that wafer prices may decline considerably in response to decreased cell prices. Demand for multi-Si cells may remain weak next month because some cell makers have switched their production lines from multi-Si to mono-Si cells.
 
The leading wafer makers, Longi and Zhonghuan Solar, could reduce their mono-Si wafer prices—but this remains a moot point until they announce their wafer prices at the end of this month. Prices for mono-Si and multi-Si wafers are forecast to decrease next month.
 

Cell Price

The overall demand for cells appears to be picking up in October, although at a slower pace than expected. Mono-Si cell prices have achieved a small increase this month. Low-priced mono-Si cells, despite being traded in decreased volumes, recently fetched a price of RMB 0.91–0.95/W, with their average market price having increased a bit.
 
Low demand for multi-Si products from the end market caused demand for multi-Si cells to cool again in late September. With multi-Si cell stocks bulging during China’s National Day holiday, multi-Si cell prices trended significantly downward this week to a historically new low of RMB 0.795–0.81/W in China and USD 0.1–0.103/W overseas. Despite this price drop, demand from the end market is not likely to pick up, and the multi-Si cell market will remain sluggish for the short term.
 

Module Price

Although Chinese demand is recovering, a disproportional number of large orders are being handled by a handful of producers, leaving many other producers underbooked for Q4 and mono-Si module prices going further down. Consequently, the market price for mono PERC modules has dropped to RMB 1.78–1.86/W and may remain persistently low for the short term.
 
The price difference has widened between mono-Si modules sold in China and those shipped to overseas markets since the former was hit by the price drop. Yet, unless China’s installation rush in Q4 is as strong as predicted, mono-Si module prices may not look any good in overseas markets.