Price negotiations across the supply chain persist amid unclear end-user acceptance

Polysilicon

Polysilicon makers have held their quotes steady this week, generally following prices from Tier-1 manufacturers and adhering to a pricing strategy anchored on the principle of “not selling below full production cost.” Sellers have quoted mono-grade polysilicon at RMB 49–55/kg, with spot prices reaching RMB 55/kg and some key buyers receiving quotes at RMB 49–50/kg. For granular polysilicon, prices sit at RMB 43–46/kg, with new orders mostly quoted at RMB 46/kg.

On the demand side, polysilicon buyers continue to purchase in small batches this week. Some mainstream manufacturers have started inquiring and negotiating prices, with some new orders delivered alongside earlier ones. No large-volume transactions have been finalized so far. As previous deliveries conclude, prices are based on new orders. Overall delivery volumes have yet to pick up, and most buyers remain cautious. Price gaps still vary widely this week, with price range diverging further amid cautious sentiment, reflecting unresolved negotiations.

Mainstream polysilicon prices this week:

• Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 42–47/kg
• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 45–50/kg
•  Granular polysilicon: RMB 43–46/kg

As previous orders near completion, average prices this week are more closely aligned with newly signed contracts. The sharp price increase has prompted some manufacturers to consider resuming or expanding production. Despite ongoing maintenance at a few facilities, August polysilicon output is expected to exceed 110,000 MT, possibly nearing 120,000 MT.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 19/kg, some suppliers have cut prices to USD 16–17/kg. However, with U.S.-bound suppliers adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a mild price rebound in August is likely.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have risen across the board this week, with average prices increasing by around RMB 0.10/piece. The market has continued its price recovery, and trading activity has picked up.

Mainstream transaction prices:

• 183N: RMB 1.20/piece (up)
• 210RN: RMB 1.35/piece (up)
• 210N: RMB 1.55/piece (up)

While demand for 183N wafers is shrinking due to the shift toward larger-format cells, tighter wafer supply and recovering cell demand from non-China markets—spurred by recent policy changes—have kept prices on a steady upward trend.

Wafer price hikes this week are mainly supported by two factors:

1. Policy-driven optimism has boosted market confidence.
2. Rising polysilicon prices are pushing up costs across the supply chain, with the impact starting to show in cell and module segments.

Wafer makers are firmly holding their prices, with major suppliers adopting a unified quoting strategy. This has reinforced a short-term optimistic outlook.

Notably, the current price hikes are largely driven by market expectations and short-term policy effects. However, if end-market acceptance weakens, the ability to pass rising prices downstream will become limited. As a result, any sustained upward trend in the medium to long term will still depend on actual demand recovery. In the short term, with polysilicon prices still rising and wafer utilization rates yet to see a significant recovery, wafer prices are likely to remain flat next week, with a chance of slight further increases.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

•  Average price: RMB 0.29/W (up)
• Price range: RMB 0.29-0.30/W

210RN & 210N:

• Average price: RMB 0.285/W (up)
• Price range: RMB 0.28-0.29/W

Rising wafer prices, anticipated cancellation of export tax rebates, and evolving policy dynamics in non-China markets have driven up transaction prices across all cell formats. 183N cells, primarily for export, have seen sharper price increases than larger formats, driven by price hike expectations in China and policy shifts in Türkiye (Turkey), which have boosted short-term procurement demand.

Cell prices are expected to rise next week in line with wafer price increases to offset cost pressures. However, ongoing uncertainty over end-market acceptance suggests continued price negotiations between the cell and module segments. Looking ahead, policy-driven momentum may help lift cell prices out of their current cash-cost-level lows, paving the way for manufacturers to return to sustainable profitability.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China has risen to USD 0.040/W this week, in line with price hikes for n-type cells. Quotes have continued to climb.

Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has risen to USD 0.038/W this week. Short-term demand driven by Turkish policy changes, along with other positive factors, has pushed up 183N cell prices.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices have widened to USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average price holding steady at USD 0.12/W. The implementation of the U.S. reciprocal tariff has been postponed to August 1, and tariff rates by country may still vary. InfoLink will continue to monitor U.S. policy developments and provide a comprehensive analysis once they are finalized.
 

Module prices in China

With projects gradually ramping up in H2, demand in China has slightly recovered. Considering the expected growth in demand and restocking in non-China markets, manufacturers have yet to significantly reduce production plans.

Amid supply chain fluctuation and anti-price war policies, second- and third-tier manufacturers have followed recent price increases, with Tier-1 manufacturers further reducing shipments priced below RMB 0.70/W. Small-volume TOPCon spot orders are signed at RMB 0.68–0.72/W, though overall transactions remain limited.

Prices for distributed generation projects have edged up; given the mix of the previous and new orders—especially with some July-end deliveries wrapping up—the average price has only seen a mild adjustment.

Prices for ground-mounted projects have remained flat. Most TOPCon modules have been delivered at RMB 0.61–0.68/W, with slight price increases at the lower end due to recent market shifts.

Module prices this week:

TOPCon glass-glass:

• RMB 0.61-0.72/W
•  Bulk delivery: RMB 0.64-0.70/W
• Ground-mounted projects:
  • Prices stay at RMB 0.64–0.68/W amid falling demand.
  • Lower-end prices (from previous deliveries): RMB 0.61-0.63/W
• Distributed spot market:
  • Prices slightly recover, reaching RMB 0.70-0.72/W.

PERC glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

• RMB 0.70–0.83/W
• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.70–0.78/W
•  Distributed projects: RMB 0.70–0.75/W

N-TBC:

• Prices have remained flat this week.
• Recent transaction prices: RMB 0.73–0.80/W
• Note: Prices exclude distributor and inventory-based sales.
   

Module prices in non-China markets

• Asia-Pacific:

1. Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.
2. Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.
3. Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.16/W in India. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have been buying cells from Southeast Asia.

• Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.083–0.085/W. Notably, manufacturers have recently started factoring potential changes to export tax rebates into contracts, which could lead to further price hikes in Europe.

• Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

• Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

• The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. reciprocal tariffs and compliance requirements under the OBBBA, suppliers and project developers are still negotiating adjustments. Some projects have reportedly been put on hold, and price updates have yet to be finalized. Current trading prices are approaching USD 0.27–0.28/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally-made modules are also trending upward.