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Updated March 10, 2021


Orders for mono-grade polysilicon were pretty much signed last week, only rush orders and small orders are left to this week, resulting in higher trading prices, sitting mostly above RMB110/kg. Although price range expanded, trading activity was low, as polysilicon makers had no inventory left for sell. In overseas markets, polysilicon prices also rose as that in China.

For now, polysilicon prices have surged 25% from pre-Lunar New Year level of RMB 88/kg. However, as its supply remaining tight, polysilicon prices are expected to hold ground. The outcome of a new round of negotiation in the end of this month will depend on the price trend of mono-Si wafers.    


Wafer prices were mostly settled last week and remained stable this week. M6 (166mm) with the thickness of 175um in China and non-China markets were traded at RMB 3.68-3.7/piece and USD 0.5-0.505/piece, respectively; prices for M10 (182mm) and G12 (210mm), with the thickness of 175um, each ranged around RMB 4.44/piece and RMB 6.16/piece. Multi-Si wafer prices also stayed between RMB 1.25-1.35/piece in China and above USD 0.185/piece overseas.  

The upward trend for wafer prices is likely to continue next week, as polysilicon shortage persists and demand for mono-Si wafers remains strong, driven by mono-Si cell manufacturers that did not cut production as much as module makers did.  


The standoff between cell and module manufacturers has not been looking up. With vertically integrated companies reducing utilization rates of their in-house module lines and in turn rising cell capacity, some of them suspended purchases for cells this week; OEM and dual distribution model orders increased. In the face of stiff wafer prices, the cost of production has overwhelmed cell makers, and as wafer prices may go up further, some of them may modify lines or conduct equipment maintenance ahead of time to cut production.  
Overall G1 cell supply slightly shrunk. As demand persists in March, trading prices for G1 cells rose marginally to RMB 0.91-0.05/W. The volume of orders signed at RMB 0.93/W increased. The high price range sat at USD 0.94-0.95/W, in response to price hikes over the upstream supply chain. In overseas markets, trading prices also increase to USD 0.117-0.128/W, slightly higher that that is in China.  

Trading prices for M6 cells remain at RMB 0.82-0.86/W, averaging RMB 0.84-0.85/W. As most module manufacturers are bidding their time, March saw a relatively low order volume; M6 prices are expected to stay flat in the near term. Foreign markets saw higher volume of orders, some of which were signed at prices RMB 0.01-0.02/W higher than those in China. 

Larger cells still rely on OEM and dual distribution model, overall direct purchasing prices saw mild fluctuations. This week, trading prices for M10 remain at RMB 0.88-0.9/W, while the average price for G12 sitting at around RMB 0.89-0.91/W.   

As multi-Si cell supply is shrinking and high prices linger for wafers resulted in the disequilibrium of supply and demand, cell prices increase to RMB 2.6-2.7/piece. 


The polysilicon price surge after the Lunar New Year urged major module makers to raise price quotes for new orders and renegotiate orders previously signed at lower prices. Major module makers are set to secure their profits, as can be seen from bid prices published recently. Tier-1 manufacturers’ larger format modules were mostly traded at RMB 1.67-1.72/W, prices higher than which were seen more commonly in the recent time. IRR of systems saw contractions amid obstinately high module prices and end users’ tending to reach targeted installation capacity.   

Presently, June 30 installation rush seems likely to lose its touch; distinct price deviations were consequently seen between Tier-1 and Tier-2 module manufacturers. In the meantime, Tier-1 module makers further brought down their utilization rates, in an attempt to limit inventory level on the one hand, and restraining rising prices for polysilicon and wafers on the other.

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