Short supply from the upstream shows no sign of easing. Prices at which orders are signed keep rising, coming in at RMB 262-268/kg for mono-grade polysilicon, and RMB 265-271/kg for recycled polysilicon scraps. Adding to relentless price hikes, disproportionate supply-demand relationship persists. Toiled with short supply and delivery various challenges, polysilicon and wafer sectors manage to address their problems.
In China, the pandemic wanes by mid-June, whilst inland transportation logjams ease. Faced with drawn-out shortages, polysilicon buyers see pressures building, especially new ingot capacities in need of polysilicon to generate actual output by the second half of the year. Some ingot companies resort to other business models and forms of partnership with polysilicon manufacturers. As of the second quarter, inventories remain low and have yet to build up in the upstream.
Polysilicon price can hardly drop in recent terms and even the second half of the year, as end user demand sustains.
Prices for mono-Si wafers stabilize for the time being. The two leading manufacturers keep prices unchanged for mainstream format wafers, whilst their Tier-2 peers follow suit for all formats. For now, prices are expected to sustain. Provided with ceaseless polysilicon price hikes and short supply, prices for wafers in different formats may start varying.
Still suffering from polysilicon shortage, the bottlenecked wafer sector fails to raise utilization rates, bring up new production capacity, and increase production output. Inventory level of the wafer sector remains healthy, and that of downstream buyers recover. Yet, inventory risk exists. As more cell production capacities are upgraded for 182mm, the gap between both supply and demand for 182mm and 210mm wafers and the rest will widen.
Multi-Si wafer prices skyrocket amid shrinking supply, hovering above RMB 3/piece for now. Multi-Si products will retreat as India retires production lines gradually in the second half of the year.
Multi-Si wafer prices will not be posted from July onward.
Cell prices mount this week, due to ongoing short supply for cells in mainstream formats remain short this week and robust end user demand around the globe. For M10 cells, manufacturers offer price quotes as high as RMB 1.195-1.2/W, and even RMB 1.21/W purportedly. Supply for G12 cells drops marginally as production lines are modified for M10 products. Given that and steady demand, price quotes for G12 have reached RMB 1.17-1.18/W.
Trading prices for M6, M10, and G12 cells come in at RMB 1.16-1.17/W, RMB 1.19-1.2/W, and RMB 1.16-1.17/W, respectively. Multi-Si cell prices stabilize, sitting at RMB 4.25-4.45/piece, and USD 0.57-0.59/piece in overseas markets.
Prices for cells in mainstream formats may advance further to RMB 1.2/W, as supply remains short in the future. Trading prices for G12 cells may go up next week, considering higher price quotes this week.
Module prices are little change this week. Glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at RMB 1.86-1.9/W for concentrated projects, and RMB 1.92-1.96/W for distributed projects (inland shipping costs excluded). Glass-glass and glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W see RMB 0.02-0.04/W of price differences.
Some projects will be initiated during July and August. From July onward, prices are expected to advance by RMB 0.01-0.02/W for concentrated projects.
Prices stabilize in overseas markets for now. The Asia-Pacific market sees prices sitting at USD 0.26-0.27/W (FOB). In Europe, prices for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W sustain at USD 0.27-0.28/W and come in at USD 0.28-0.295/W on the spot market.
July and August used to be the low season of European market. However, this year sees unwavering demand. Prices may rise by EUR 0.01-0.02/W for distributed projects and stay at USD 0.27-0.28/W for utility-scale projects.
N-type cell and module
Prices see no evident changes as the market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. Prices for M6 HJT cells sit at around RMB 1.3-1.45/W.
M10 and G12 TOPCon cells have not seen much trading by far, with prices coming in at RMB 1.25-1.27/W for the time being.
Module prices sustain this week, coming in at RMB 2.1-2.15/W for M6 HJT modules, and USD 0.285-0.33 in overseas markets.
M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 2-2.05/W, and USD 0.28-0.3/W in overseas markets.