Regional power-supply disruptions are taking their toll. In hydropower hubs, low water levels limit generation. Meantime, scorching heat and electricity demand sustain, tightening supply, affecting power distribution of industries across China. Industrial power rationing disrupts the PV supply chains in Sichuan and some other regions, causing declines in production volume to varying extents.
Given current climate, the polysilicon sector will see power cuts extend by 12-15 days in Sichuan, affecting monthly production volume by 4,500-5,500 MT, posing adverse impacts on polysilicon supply in the second half of August and the first half of September.
The increase in real polysilicon supply remains slow in September. For now, tightness in polysilicon supply persists. Trading prices for sporadic orders keep advancing, exceeding RMB 311/kg. Still, mainstream prices plateau, with price hikes reaching a limit. Buyer-seller negotiations intensify. Marked price decline is not likely in the short term.
Prices slightly pick up to RMB 301/kg for mono-grade polysilicon. Major manufacturers focus on delivering orders this week. Negotiations and signing activities for new orders in September will gradually begin. Overall, there will not be significant price hikes.
* Investigation of InfoLink covers polysilicon prices at which orders have been delivered from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday and have been signed recently. We track mainstream prices and provide feedback for the industry. Therefore, changes and future price trend will gradually emerge during periods of higher order volume. Prices for sporadic orders are to be heeded.
Real wafer production volume will be limited throughout August and September, as the wafer sector keeps lower utilization rates due to polysilicon shortage. Meantime, industrial power rationing directly affects utilization rates of the ingot segment. In certain regions, productions almost halt entirely. Manufacturers can do nothing but wait for power supply to improve to resume production. That said, authorities extend power rationing. Real production volume in the latter part of August will drop. Manufacturers may stanch the loss by rearranging distribution of in-house raw materials.
As of this Wednesday, mainstream prices for mono-Si wafers sustain, coming in at RMB 9.91/piece for 210mm mono-Si wafers with a thickness of 155μm, and RMB 7.52/piece for the 182mm-155μm format. Prices for M6 mono-Si wafers slip, with low-price level going down. This can be attributed to power cuts and waning demand of the cell sector, as the product reaches its end of life.
Summer heat and power crunch strangle and affect industrial power supply to different degrees in regions across China. All attention is on whether power cuts will impact wafer demand.
Given limited wafer supply, upstream price trend remains rather domineering. Therefore, wafer prices are not likely to drop in the short term. Wafer manufacturers will publish new pricings according to situation at the end of the month.
Cell prices stay elevated as power cuts strangle supply. Prices for M10 cells creep higher on short supply. For large-format cells, manufacturers are poised to raise price quotes to RMB 1.28-1.29/W, even RMB 1.3/W, for G12 cells.
Presently, M6, M10, and G12 cells are traded at RMB 1.28/W, RMB 1.29-1.31/W, and RMB 1.27-1.29. In overseas markets, prices fluctuate along with exchange rates. M6 and G12 cell prices marginally decline in the U.S. term. M10 prices sustain in overseas markets as prices rise in China.
Cell prices will stay elevated next week, with no sign of dropping as demand persists.
Module prices stagnate as demand wanes, and trading volume gradually declines in August. Few ground-mounted projects are initiated. Deliveries for orders of distributed projects continue. This week, glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered primarily at RMB 1.95-2/W, RMB 1.95-1.97/W for ground-mounted projects, with smaller order volumes, and RMB 1.98-2/W for distributed projects (inland transport costs excluded).
Both module makers and end users stand firm amid of great production costs.
However, inventories piling up in the module sector are harmful to module makers. Recent tenders see module makers offer lower price quotes to secure orders. In the fourth quarter, low-price range will come in at RMB 1.9/W for glass-backsheet modules.
Prices fluctuate along with exchange rates in overseas markets. Module makers want to adjust prices, but end users seem unwilling to give in. Overall, prices sustain at last week’s level, with low-price range slightly losing ground.
Prices stay at last week’s level at USD 0.265-0.275/W (FOB) in the Asia-Pacific region, and USD 0.27-0.285/W in Australia. In the U.S., prices sustain at USD 0.34-0.38/W, and USD 0.55-0.58/W for locally made modules. In Europe, labor issues and inverter shortage delay projects. Presently, glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at USD 0.263-0.285/W, and slightly lower at USD 0.275-0.285/W on the spot market.
N-type cell and module
The market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. This week, prices remain at last week’s level. N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with few external sales. G12 HJT modules may be available by the end of the third quarter. We will decide whether we should post the spot price of G12 HJT products in the fourth quarter of the year, considering mass production activities of all manufacturers.
N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with not many external sales by far. Prices sustain at RMB 1.39-1.5/W for M6 HJT cells and sit at RMB 1.32-1.41/W for M10 and G12 TOPCon cells.
Module prices temporarily sustain this week, coming in at RMB 2.07-2.3/W for M6 HJT modules, and USD 0.29-0.33/W in overseas markets.
M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 2.07-2.12/W for monofacial ones, RMB 2.1-2.17/W for bifacial ones, and around USD 0.28-0.31/W in overseas markets.