| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | January 24, 2024 |
Polysilicon
The polysilicon sector has intended to raise prices since last week. Leading polysilicon companies negotiated with ingot manufacturers. Whether the expected price increase will come to pass remains uncertain.
As of this week, delivery prices stabilized at RMB 63-68/kg for polysilicon chunk. For polysilicon not qualified for n-type ingot production, prices came in at RMB 56-62/kg. On the other hand, delivery prices for granular polysilicon were around RMB 55-60/kg. Similarly, prices for non-China polysilicon stayed at last week’s level at USD 18-24/kg, excluding rare and extreme prices.
The supply of high-quality polysilicon remains flat month-on-month. Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers, including new entrants, contributed to most of the growth in the total polysilicon supply. The price trend in February looks still unclear.
Wafer
With manufacturers cutting production, wafer inventory declined slowly to 1.4-1.7 billion pieces this week, a healthier level compared with the past.
Trading prices held steady this week, staying at RMB 2/piece and RMB 2.8/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers, respectively. N-type wafer prices saw a slight decline, with M10 and G12 wafers reaching RMB 2/piece and RMB 3.1/piece, respectively. M10 wafer saw an upward price trend this week. With manufacturers allocating substantially more capacity for n-type production, p-type M10 wafer prices bottomed out after weeks of declines as manufacturers raised price quotes amid tight supply. For n-type ones, some manufacturers aimed for price hikes after last week’s decrease. For both n-type and p-type wafers, price quotes come in at RMB 2-2.05/piece.
The wafer sector now sees evident inventory depletion and manufacturers raising prices. However, given their current utilization rates, surplus and inventory accumulation are likely, provided that cell manufacturers take down time as scheduled during the Lunar New Year holiday.
Cell
The supply of high-efficiency PERC cells seemed tight as the number of PERC cell manufacturers decreased sharply. With an oligopolistic advantage in efficiency, leading manufacturers attempted to raise prices.
Trading prices for p-type cells sustained, coming in at RMB 0.38/W for both M10 and G12 cells. The two prices sat at the same level for four consecutive weeks. Moreover, leading, non-vertically integrated cell manufacturers raised prices to RMB 0.39/W and a few to RMB 0.4/W.
This week, mainstream trading prices for n-type M10 cells were relatively stable. The severe divergence in efficiency resulted in price disparity. For high-efficiency n-type cells with an efficiency above 24.5%, the average price stabilized at RMB 0.47/W. The price gap between TOPCon and PERC cells reached RMB 0.08-0.09/W. G12 HJT cells, primarily for in-house use and less for external sales, saw prices vary significantly among manufacturers, coming in at RMB 0.6-0.7/W for high-efficiency ones.
Cell prices have held steady recently. Despite slight increases for PERC cells, manufacturers are still facing losses in production. Therefore, prices will remain low, old capacities will continue retiring, and n-type production expansion will encounter challenges.
Module
With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, some module makers extended production halts. Unlike upstream sectors set to raise prices, the module sector saw prices lingering at a lower range.
As the cost and orders decreased, average prices for PERC modules stabilized at RMB 0.88-0.9/W this week. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules narrowed to RMB 0.05-0.08/W due to the delivery of new orders of the latter, for which prices came in at RMB 0.95-0.98/W, with downward momentum for mainstream prices in the future.
Module makers have taken fewer orders recently, focusing on delivering orders for utility-scale projects. Delivery prices for PERC and TOPCon modules dropped below RMB 0.8/W and RMB 0.9/W, respectively, with the low-price range reaching RMB 0.7/W and RMB 0.85/W.
Subject to lofty production costs, an undetermined market, and higher delivery prices for previous orders than new ones, HJT module prices came in at RMB 1.15-1.25/W in China and lingering at USD 0.150-0.170/W in non-China markets.
In non-China markets, module prices have stabilized for the moment. India has seen increasing stockpiling activities in the first quarter, given the ALMM taking effect in the second quarter. For India-made modules, prices are temporarily stable.
With its product cycle approaching the end, 182mm PERC modules saw an upward trend in short-term demand. Given this, faster inventory depletion in Europe, and shipping risks, some manufacturers planned to adjust prices after the holiday.
In the U.S. distributed market, prices sit at USD 0.2-0.25/W, with some module makers offering price quotes lower than USD 0.2/W. For utility-scale projects, module makers sustained delivery prices above USD 0.3/W for modules comprising non-China materials. The market still awaits signs of recovery.