Anti-price war meeting reconvenes; policy impacts pending

Polysilicon

Polysilicon manufacturers have raised price quotes this week. Driven by recent market news, sellers have quoted mono-grade polysilicon at RMB 50-55/kg, with spot prices exceeding RMB 50/kg. For granular polysilicon, prices sit at RMB 43–46/kg, with new orders mostly quoted at RMB 46/kg.

Mainstream polysilicon prices this week: 

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 42–47/kg

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 45–50/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 43–46/kg

Polysilicon buyers continue to make small-volume purchases this week, mainly via new orders mixed with earlier contract deliveries, as well as through dual distribution. No large-scale transactions have been finalized so far. Overall delivery volumes have yet to pick up, and most buyers remain cautious.

The sharp price increase has prompted some makers to consider resuming or expanding production. Despite ongoing maintenance at a few facilities, August polysilicon output is set to reach 125,000-130,000 MT. However, rising output volume has pushed up inventories, leading to planned production cuts in September. This highlights the limited pass-through of high prices, rooted in weak demand.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Overall prices in August come in at USD 18/kg.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices remain unchanged across all formats this week, with mainstream transaction levels holding steady. While a small number of low-priced deals have emerged for larger formats, the overall impact on average prices is limited, and trading sentiment remained subdued. Key trends are as follows:

•    Limited transaction volumes as manufacturers pace deliveries to avoid a rapid weakening of prices.

•    With the industry association frequently discussing anti-price war measures, market sentiment has grown more cautious, and both buyers and sellers are adopting a prudent approach.

Wafer prices remain stable for now, with potential increase yet to be seen. Current prices:

•    183N: RMB 1.20/piece (unchanged)

•    210RN: RMB 1.33–1.35/piece, with the mainstream prices averaging RMB 1.35/piece

•    210N: RMB 1.53–1.55/piece, with the mainstream average price holding at RMB 1.55/piece

Looking ahead, uncertainty around the industry association’s anti-price war measures keeps sentiment cautious, with wafer prices likely to fluctuate once policies take effect. Although policy has raised expectations for price support and even potential increases, the outcome still hinges on end-project buyers’ acceptance of higher prices. If downstream demand fails to keep pace, the sustainability of high-priced deals will be affected. For now, with limited trading volume and policy uncertainty, significant short-term price shifts appear unlikely. 
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week, with prices across all formats largely unchanged from last week: 

183N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.29/W (flat) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.29-0.295/W 

210RN & 210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (flat) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W

As mentioned last week, cell prices remain under pressure, constrained by low bargaining power and the continued transmission of cost pressures along the supply chain. End-market demand has yet to recover, and uncertainty over buyers’ acceptance of price adjustments sustains the cautious market sentiment. As a result, module makers continue to press for further cell price cuts in September.

In light of this week’s anti-price-war meeting, manufacturers are awaiting the release of specific policy measures. In the short term, significant price swings are unlikely; over the longer term, the orderly implementation of supportive policies may provide greater stability and lend support to cell prices in China.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:  

The average export price for 182P cells from China slips to USD 0.039/W this week, with further price declines likely.

Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W. These price adjustments were made earlier in response to cost pressures from reciprocal tariffs.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China remains flat at USD 0.039/W this week. However, as policy-driven demand in non-China markets has faded, short-term procurement has slowed. As a result, non-China quotes are now trending downward, with premiums narrowing.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices land at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.

Stricter supply chain compliance requirements under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the launched AD/CVD investigations targeting Indonesia and Laos—both of which could disrupt U.S. cell demand and weigh on Southeast Asian cell prices. While the policy impacts have yet to materialize, InfoLink will continue to monitor U.S. policy developments and provide comprehensive analysis as the situation evolves.
 

Module prices in China

Sluggish demand persists this week, with fewer new orders and most transactions stemming from previous contracts. Lower-priced deals continue to drag down the overall market average.

Recent meetings and policy signals have lifted tender prices to RMB 0.68–0.75/W, creating a wait-and-see attitude in the market as participants monitor the strength of policy implementation.

Prices for ground-mounted projects hold steady, with TOPCon module deliveries mainly at RMB 0.61–0.68/W. Distributed projects have seen limited execution, with prices staying firm. This week, a mix of previous and new orders has kept the overall average price temporarily stable.

Module prices this week:

TOPCon glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.61-0.71/W

•    Bulk delivery: RMB 0.64-0.68/W

Ground-mounted projects:

•    Prices slightly dip to RMB 0.62-0.68/W amid falling demand.

•    Lower-end prices (from previous deliveries): RMB 0.61-0.63/W

Distributed spot market:

•    Prices hold steady, with only a small number of transactions still concluded above RMB 0.70/W.

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

•    RMB 0.70–0.83/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.70–0.78/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.70–0.75/W

N-TBC:

•    Prices have remained flat this week.

•    Recent transaction prices: RMB 0.73–0.80/W

•    Note: Price quotes exclude distributor and inventory-based sales.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.16/W in India. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have been buying cells from Southeast Asia.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.083–0.085/W. Notably, manufacturers have recently started factoring potential changes to export tax rebates into contracts, resulting in minor spot price increases. Pricing also varies depending on power bins.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. reciprocal tariffs and compliance requirements under the OBBBA, suppliers and project developers are still negotiating adjustments. Some projects have reportedly been put on hold, and domestic spot distribution prices have seen a slight rebound. Current trading prices are approaching USD 0.27–0.28/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally-made modules are also trending upward.