Polysilicon prices slump amid gloomy module demand

Polysilicon

As in the previous week, buyers resumed negotiations, putting an end to a frozen polysilicon market. As of this Wednesday, prices fell below RMB 54/kg. For polysilicon of Tier-1 manufacturers, prices dropped to RMB 47-54/kg. For those of their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers, prices declined to RMB 44-47/kg. The price gap among manufacturers of different tiers remained but continued to shrink. For granular polysilicon, prices kept plunging to RMB 41-44/kg.

For many orders, prices were still up in the air as manufacturers resorted to more diverse and flexible forms of cooperation, such as price revisions for previous orders, amid price slumps.

With China’s Labor Day holiday approaching, polysilicon price declines will slow down significantly in the mid-to-late second quarter, remaining continued yet limited as prices have fallen below the production cost level. Future price trend in this quarter depends on manufacturers' utilization rates and production shutdowns.
 

Wafer

Many manufacturers have transitioned production from n-type M10 247mm-diagonal to 256mm-diagonal wafers. The price gap between the two diminished this week, with prices of the two both coming in at RMB 1.5/piece this week and the low-price range reaching RMB 1.4x/piece.

Trading prices for wafers of all formats continued decreasing this week, reaching RMB 1.65/piece and RMB 2.1/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers; RMB 1.5/piece and RMB 2.3/piece for n-type M10 and G12 ones, respectively. Each format saw a decline of 2-6%. Manufacturers have been purchasing n-type G12R wafers in bulk at RMB 1.9-2/piece. InfoLink’s weekly spot price update will include prices for n-type G12R wafers in May once the number of buyers stabilizes.

With no production cuts lately, inventory levels began to rise again amid higher utilization rates, returning above 4 billion pieces this week. Some manufacturers were reportedly raising production. Prices are not likely to stabilize before Labor Day and will continue falling, given the unsolved supply-demand mismatch and polysilicon price declines.
 

Cell

Cell prices continued to decrease slowly this week except for PERC G12 cells, for which trading prices increased slightly to RMB 0.36-0.37/W due to end users taking PERC G12 modules.

Trading prices this week slightly dropped to RMB 0.33-0.34/W for p-type M10 cells, while increasing by RMB 0.01 to RMB 0.36/W for p-type G12 cells. Prices for n-type M10 cells slipped to RMB 0.39-0.4/W, sustaining the price gap between TOPCon and PERC M10 cells at RMB 0.05-0.07/W. HJT G12 high-efficiency cells saw prices at RMB 0.55-0.65/W.

The profitability of PERC cells improved as wafer prices continued decreasing. Despite price hikes driven by tight supply, some non-vertically integrated manufacturers started re-evaluating the cost-effectiveness of PERC G12 cell production, considering the ending premiums of the product and the inconsistency with the technology transition to TOPCon. So far, manufacturers keep lines previously scheduled for shutdowns operating but commission no new capacity for this format.
 

Module

Price fluctuations across the supply chain affected distributed projects this week. In China, centralized generation projects accounted for most deliveries. Deliveries for new projects were few. While module price hikes are unlikely, Tier-1 manufacturers still delivered above RMB 0.88/W in late April, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers delivered at prices below break-even points.

Fluctuations also affected prices for May orders. Recent tenders saw prices continue to decline. Some module makers plan to reduce production in May to regulate price drops.

This week, prices sat at RMB 0.78-0.90/W for 182mm PERC glass-glass modules, with projects in China experiencing a more noticeable decrease towards RMB 0.83-0.85/W. Module makers delivered TOPCon modules at RMB 0.82-0.98/W, with a wide gap between the high and the low-price range due to price adjustments before and after deliveries. The gap between prices for centralized and distributed generation projects also remained. The former took TOPCon deliveries at RMB 0.82-0.9/W (excluding prices not being delivered now). For the latter, orders were delivered at RMB 0.85-0.93/W, although some low-priced orders existed.

As for HJT modules, prices fell to RMB 0.97-1.18/W, averaging RMB 1.1-1.15/W, with the low-price range reportedly reaching below RMB 1/W.

In non-China markets, PERC module prices stabilized at USD 0.1-0.11/W. Meanwhile, prices for TOPCon modules varied significantly by region, sitting at EUR 0.12-0.13/W in Europe and USD 0.12-0.13/W in Australia, while decreasing to USD 0.11-0.12/W in Brazil and the Middle East, with price quotes for 2025 and late 2024 falling below USD 0.10/W reportedly. The U.S. placed fewer orders for the second quarter. Prices remained at USD 0.33-0.35/W, the delivery prices for centralized generation projects last week. Due to policy, manufacturers tried to raise prices for Southeast Asian modules. As for HJT modules, prices stabilized at USD 0.13-0.15/W.