Wafer shipments under pressure amid frequent low-price signals

Polysilicon

This week, the polysilicon market activity primarily centers on fulfilling previously placed orders. Mainstream prices this week are as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 31-33/kg

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 30-32/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 32-33/kg

In terms of transactions, buyers are responding cautiously, some mainly making small-volume purchases, while others are primarily drawing down their own inventories. As midstream remains under pressure and expectations for further polysilicon price declines persist, the overall transaction price range has narrowed. Looking ahead to the wet season, with leading producers resuming production and some producers raising output, monthly polysilicon output has been revised upward. This makes it difficult for the market to support current transaction prices. We still expect polysilicon prices to fluctuate at low levels in July and August. Prices for recycled mono-grade polysilicon may fall back to RMB 30–32/kg, while the overall average price may break below RMB 30/kg, with the possibility of an overshoot.
 

Wafer 

Wafer prices continued to soften this week as expected, with low-price signals frequently emerging in the market. Although tier-1 producers maintain stable external quotes, weak shipment momentum and limited downstream demand have pulled the overall market average down to RMB 0.87/piece for 183N, RMB 0.97/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.17/piece for 210N.

As the effect of declining average prices in boosting market transactions remains limited, recent price adjustments have mainly been concentrated among tier-2 and tier-3 producers, which have focused on lowering prices to boost shipments. Mainstream low-price transactions have now settled at RMB 0.85/piece for 183N, RMB 0.95/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.15/piece for 210N. Among these, 210N prices have remained more resilient than the other two formats, with more limited price dispersion. By contrast, low-price transactions for 210RN have continued to increase, and its subsequent price trend remains to be seen.

On the supply-demand side, most producers are still maintaining output expansion strategies, with overall wafer output expected to reach 57–58 GW in July. Against the backdrop of continued inventory buildup, rising supply, and no clear improvement in demand, some producers may continue to accelerate shipments through price adjustments. In the short term, wafer prices remain under further downward pressure.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.265-0.27/W (down)

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.26-0.27/W (down)

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.275/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.27-0.28/W (down)

As silver prices have rebounded, price-cutting sentiment in the cell market has temporarily eased this week. Meanwhile, as expected last week, some cell producers have begun reducing production schedules in July. Overall, however, current prices have already fallen into producers’ cash-cost range, while transaction volumes remain sluggish and inventory pressure has yet to be resolved. Going forward, producers may be forced to ship at low prices to stimulate demand. From a cost-calculation perspective, however, prices for high-efficiency cells across all formats are unlikely to fall below RMB 0.26/W.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has remained unchanged at USD 0.049/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.047-0.050/W. Chinese manufacturers remain primarily engaged in tolling, with tolling fees showing no notable changes recently. With supply-demand conditions more favorable than those for n-type cells, prices have been able to hold steady.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has held steady at USD 0.041/W this week, but the price range has moved down to USD 0.040–0.042/W. The market is currently centered on low-price sales and inventory drawdown, yet order volumes have still shown no notable pickup. As a result, export prices still have room to decline this month.
 

Module

Module prices in the Chinese market have continued to soften this week. TOPCon module prices for distributed projects in China have fallen by RMB 0.01/W this week to RMB 0.745/W, while prices for ground-mounted projects have temporarily held at RMB 0.71/W. The overall average price has moved down to RMB 0.728/W. Current actual delivery prices for TOPCon module are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.70–0.76/W for distributed projects.

On the supply-demand side, as July begins, demand from ground-mounted projects in China has started to pick up gradually, driving a corresponding increase in module production schedules. China’s monthly module output is estimated to reach 37–38 GW this month, up about 4–5 GW from last month, while global module production plans have been raised accordingly to 48–49 GW.

In the short term, module prices may decline further. Volatile silver prices since the start of the year have significantly impacted module costs. The decline in China’s module prices in recent months reflects persistently weak end-market demand and a lack of meaningful support for market prices. Compared with the beginning of the year, end buyers have also begun mirroring the earlier narrative previously used by manufacturers—that cost increases justify price hikes—and are now asking module makers to lower their price quotes accordingly, further intensifying bargaining pressure in the market.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has remained at USD 0.116/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

For Europe-bound shipments, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since early June, now approaching USD 5,000 per 40-foot high-cube container. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up ocean freight costs and lifted spot market prices in Europe. However, for ground-mounted projects in Europe supplied directly from China, recent transaction prices have still adjusted somewhat in line with softening prices in the Chinese market. This week’s prices reflect current delivery status.

U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from USD 0.30-0.33/W. For detailed real-time prices in each region, please see Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.