Pricing sentiment reverses; wafer and cell prices come under pressure

*Notice: Polysilicon market conditions remain volatile, with the market still awaiting greater policy clarity. No large-volume spot transactions have been concluded this week, with activity mainly driven by dual-distribution arrangements and futures trading. Given current market conditions, the polysilicon price ranges presented this week are for reference only and should not be taken as representative of actual spot delivery prices.

Polysilicon

Polysilicon quotes have remained largely stable this week, with recycled mono-grade polysilicon at approximately RMB 43/kg and granular polysilicon at RMB 40–41/kg. In terms of actual transactions, market activity remains relatively scattered, mainly driven by dual-distribution demand and in futures-spot trades, while major downstream buyers remain cautious about procurement.

Overall, although polysilicon quotes remain elevated this week, actual transactions are still dominated by small-volume deals, select channels, and futures-spot trading. Large-scale direct purchases by mainstream wafer manufacturers have yet to materialize, leaving a gap between quoted prices and actual transaction levels. Going forward, it remains necessary to monitor downstream acceptance of current prices and the pace of inventory replenishment.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have shown signs of retreating this week. Weak cell demand outside China has reduced cell manufacturers’ willingness to replenish inventories. Falling cell prices have also led buyers to believe that previous wafer increases were too rapid, leaving room for further price correction in the near term. Spot procurement remains cautious, and direct procurement demand for 210RN and 210N wafers has weakened notably.

By format:

• 183N: Prices have fallen to RMB 1.10–1.12/piece this week, averaging RMB 1.10/piece, representing a short-term decline from last week. Demand remains stronger than for the other two formats, supporting prices and giving the format greater resilience against price declines.

• 210RN: Mainstream transaction prices stand at RMB 1.10–1.13/piece this week, while some orders are still concluded at a high of RMB 1.15/piece. Notably, some dual-distribution transactions are currently being concluded above RMB 1.15/piece, but these are not included in this week’s price assessment. Buyers and sellers remain in a standoff at the low end. Although quotes below RMB 1.10/piece have emerged, transactions at these levels have yet to reach scale. Low-priced transactions may gradually become more prevalent next week.

• 210N: Overall transaction volume remains low this week, with market inquiries and procurement activity relatively subdued. As a result, prices have shown no significant change and remain at RMB 1.20–1.25/piece. With month-end approaching, some manufacturers have begun cutting prices to clear inventories. Combined with weakening demand, prices are coming under increasing pressure.

In the near term, after this round of rapid price increases and earlier concentrated procurement, some pent-up demand has already been released. Without support from additional demand, wafer prices may still decline further. Among all wafer formats, 183N continues to show stronger demand. The market also expects some production lines to shift toward 183N next month, though whether the additional supply will align with subsequent demand remains to be seen. Although the market recently expects another industry meeting to be held, several previous rounds of meetings have already provided some support to market sentiment. As a result, the price-supportive effect of subsequent meetings is expected to be limited.
 

Cell prices in China

Average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.32-0.34/W 

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.32/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.31-0.33/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.32/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.31-0.32/W

After two weeks of price increases, with quotes reaching a peak last week and expectations for further gains narrowing, market sentiment has completely reversed this week. Reports of U.S. customs clearance issues and inventory buildup outside China have disrupted stockpiling demand related to Section 232, bringing forward the timing of price declines that the market had widely expected for September to October. Latest quotes for all formats have moved lower this week. Combined with low-priced offers from Chinese manufacturers clearing inventories at month-end, expectations for cell price declines in September have strengthened significantly.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has remained at USD 0.047/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.045-0.050/W. As was the case last week, demand outside China remains concentrated in n-type products, making end-market demand for 182P subdued. Although some manufacturers raised tolling fees this week, downstream customers have shown little willingness to place orders, leaving prices temporarily stable.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has declined to USD 0.05/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.049-0.053/W. Disruptions to demand outside China have driven prices down rapidly. Indian customers had already shown limited acceptance of earlier price increases, and non-Chinese buyers have now shifted to the sidelines while continuing to push for lower prices. Cell quotes may therefore decline at a faster pace.
 

Module

Driven by the pre-implementation window under the latest U.S. Section 232 measures and rising wafer, cell, and silver prices, module quotes in China have trended upward. Module quotes for ground-mounted projects have increased this week, supported by some order demand. However, the distributed-generation market remains under pressure to hold prices steady, with no clear increase in actual delivery prices this week.

Actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.68-0.76/W for distributed projects.

For BC modules, the average prices in China have stayed at RMB 0.79/W this week. Actual delivery prices for BC modules are currently around RMB 0.75–0.77/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.78–0.81/W for distributed projects.

Looking ahead, as the U.S. detains some imported cells intended for stockpiling and the rush to import during policy window approaches saturation, wafer and cell prices are expected to lose further upside momentum. Module prices are also unlikely to sustain recent gains, with overall prices gradually returning to a downward trend.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has remained at USD 0.114/W this week.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has declined to USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

In Europe, prices for ground-mounted and residential modules have been revised slightly downward this week. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

In the U.S. market, the latest Section 232 announcement on August 6 is expected to bring a new shock to price trends. With the minimum import price (MIP) acting as a price floor, both imported and domestically manufactured module prices are expected to rise. For now, market participants remain in wait-and-see mode on U.S.-assembled module prices, which remain at around USD 0.30–0.33/W.