Wafer prices soften first at the low end; support for cell prices weakens

Polysilicon

Polysilicon quotes have remained largely stable this week, with recycled mono-grade polysilicon at approximately RMB 43/kg and granular polysilicon at RMB 40–41/kg.  Market participants have yet to reach a consensus on prices. Actual transactions remain relatively scattered, mainly driven by tolling and dual-distribution demand, along with futures-spot trades, while major downstream buyers remain cautious about procurement.

Overall, although polysilicon quotes remain elevated this week, actual transactions are still dominated by small-volume deals, select channels, and futures-spot trading. Direct procurement by mainstream wafer manufacturers has yet to materialize on a broad scale, leaving a gap between quoted prices and actual transaction prices. Going forward, it remains necessary to monitor downstream acceptance of current prices and the pace of restocking. The picture may become clearer after an industry meeting expected this weekend.
 

Wafer

Although wafer prices have seen only limited fluctuations this week, the market is gradually showing signs of weakening. On the offer side, some producers have begun selling at prices below their previous quotes, though transaction volumes remain limited and these lower-priced deals have yet to become mainstream. The weakness is expected to be reflected more clearly in average prices next week.

On the procurement side, buyers are generally still waiting for prices to fall further. Many have also begun negotiating with wafer manufacturers, with target prices for some sizes even falling below RMB 1/piece. As a result, wafer prices may remain under pressure going forward.

By format, overall transaction volumes have remained limited recently, with most manufacturers still taking a wait-and-see approach. For 183N wafers, as demand for corresponding cells outside China has declined, transactions at RMB 1.08/piece have begun to emerge this week, indicating further price softening from previous levels.

Price divergence has become more pronounced for 210RN wafers. Although most manufacturers are still quoting RMB 1.10/piece, some transactions have slipped to RMB 1.08/piece. Given continued shipment pressure, tier-1 manufacturers may also gradually adjust their prices accordingly, while lower asking prices have begun to emerge in the market, though they have yet to be validated by actual transactions.

As for 210N wafers, relatively weak demand has kept both inquiries and transactions limited. Most prices remain at RMB 1.20/piece for now, while some orders are negotiable down to RMB 1.18/piece. Still lower prices have yet to gain traction in the market.

Overall, upstream polysilicon prices have remained relatively stable recently, with some expectations of a slight increase. However, wafer pull-in buying activity previously driven by demand outside China has gradually cooled, putting renewed pressure on wafer prices. Lower-priced transactions may increase further next week.
 

Cell prices in China

Average prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.31/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.31–0.32/W 

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.31/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.31–0.33/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.30/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.295-0.310/W

Cell prices have continued to decline this week, mainly because stocking demand outside China, particularly for 183N and 210RN cells, has cooled. Meanwhile, lower wafer prices and a pullback in silver prices have further weakened cost support for cell prices. On the supply side, preliminary estimates indicate that cell production schedules for September are higher than in August. Against a backdrop of somewhat weak demand and recovering supply, market expectations for cell prices to decline further in September are relatively strong. Overall, the cell market may return to trading around the cost line in September.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has remained flat at USD 0.047/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.045–0.050/W. Demand for 182P cells outside China for September has partially recovered. However, relatively tight supply and easing wafer and silver costs have kept the overall quote range stable for now, with no significant changes.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has fallen further this week to USD 0.048/W, with prices ranging from USD 0.047–0.049/W. As stocking demand outside China driven by the U.S. Section 232 measures has gradually cooled, previously elevated cell quotes in China and Southeast Asia have both declined, with premiums narrowing significantly. Meanwhile, weaker wafer and silver prices in China have also dragged prices outside China lower.
 

Module

Driven by the pre-implementation window under the latest U.S. Section 232 measures and rising wafer, cell, and silver prices, module quotes in China have trended upward. Most manufacturers, however, are still primarily fulfilling earlier orders, with very limited new orders being signed. Meanwhile, as upstream raw material prices begin to soften, market response to this price-increase narrative remains relatively muted.

In China, actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.68–0.76/W for distributed projects.

For BC modules, the average price in China has stayed at RMB 0.79/W this week. Actual delivery prices for BC modules are currently around RMB 0.75–0.77/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.78–0.81/W for distributed projects.

Looking ahead, as the U.S. detains some imported cells intended for stockpiling and the rush to import during the policy window approaches saturation, wafer and cell prices are expected to lack further upside momentum. Module prices are also unlikely to sustain recent gains, with overall prices gradually returning to a downward trend.

Outside China, the average TOPCon module price has remained at USD 0.114/W.

In the Middle East, regional conflict continues to disrupt shipments and cause logistics delays for most projects. Market transactions remain limited for now, and the latest prices have yet to become clear.

In Europe, prices for ground-mounted and residential modules have been revised slightly downward this week. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

In the U.S. market, the latest Section 232 announcement on August 6 is expected to bring a new shock to price trends. With the minimum import price (MIP) acting as a price floor, both imported and domestically manufactured module prices are expected to rise. For now, market participants remain in wait-and-see mode on U.S.-assembled module prices, which remain at around USD 0.30–0.33/W.

In India, prices for a small number of recent orders have also edged higher, mainly driven by advance stocking amid the impact of the U.S. Section 232 measures. Price increases have been more pronounced for projects not subject to the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR), while changes for DCR projects have remained relatively limited, as demand is primarily driven by the domestic market.