SNEC 2025 – solar PV focus: Prisoner’s dilemma among manufacturers remains unresolved

The 18th SNEC International Photovoltaic Power Generation and Smart Energy Conference & Exhibition (SNEC PV+ Expo) was held from June 11 to 13, 2025 at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, China. At this year’s expo, crowds were noticeably thinner, as many manufacturers had scaled back spending after two years of losses. In the broader PV industry, demand in 1H25 remained stronger than expected, largely driven by China’s installation rush. However, demand has started to weaken for 2H25, with short-term orders for July and August appearing uncertain, prompting increased focus on how to address persistent challenges.
 

China: Policy changes are driving a shift in business models in 2025

In February 2025, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly issued the Notice on Deepening the Market-Based Reform of Feed-in Tariffs for New Energy and Promoting High-Quality Development of the Sector (Document No. 136). The policy mandates that the full output of renewable energy projects participate in electricity market trading, with prices determined through market-based mechanisms to support high-quality industry development. It also requires each province to issue supporting implementation guidelines by the end of 2025.

Provinces across China have gradually responded to Document No. 136 by soliciting public feedback and initiating consultations. Some regions have already released draft or finalized supporting policies, with strategies varying slightly by locality. As of now, only a few provinces have issued complete implementation guidelines, while most remain in the stages of internal consultation or drafting. Despite regional differences, current provincial responses share several common principles:

• Upholding the core spirit of Document No. 136 by fully shifting renewable energy feed-in tariffs to market-based pricing and establishing a sustainable pricing and settlement mechanism for renewable energy (referred to as "mechanism-based pricing").

• Differentiating policy application for existing and new projects, with May 31, 2025, set as the dividing line for policy application.

• Strengthening policy coordination, including cancelling “mandatory energy storage requirements” and the prevention of double-counting of green certificate (REC) benefits for volumes already covered by mechanism-based pricing.

Given the current project construction timelines, the slow rollout of supporting policies introduces significant uncertainty for demand in 2H25. Although implementation guidelines must be released by year-end, reforms to pricing and market mechanisms will take time to yield practical results. Preliminary estimates suggest that, under current policy drafts, average project returns for PV could decline by around 30%, prompting end users to shift development focus this year toward wind power and other energy sources.
 

Supply chain pricing: Prisoner’s dilemma persists amid downward pressure 

Due to the prisoner’s dilemma effect among manufacturers, and under the combined influence of strategic maneuvering and self-preservation, overall production has yet to show a significant decline—similar to last year. Most manufacturers remain cautious, waiting to observe market conditions in July and August, while prices continue to hover near the bottom range.

Prices of each segment during the SNEC are as follows.

Polysilicon: mainstream prices remained at RMB 35–36/kg, with signed orders from a few manufacturers priced even below RMB 35/kg.

Wafer: Prices of 183N, 210RN, and 210N wafers were RMB 0.91-0.93/piece, 1.05-1.08/piece, and 1.28-1.3/piece, respectively.

Cell: Prices of 183N, 210RN, and 210N cells were RMB 0.24-0.25/W, 0.265-0.27/W, and 0.255-0.265/W, respectively.

Module:

TOPCon glass-glass module prices: 

• RMB 0.60-0.72/W 

• Bulk orders: RMB 0.65-0.68/W 

• Many manufacturers are anticipating further price reductions as demand nears bottom.

HJT: recent prices have been less volatile due to reduced order volumes, ranging from RMB 0.72-0.83/W.

N-TBC:  

• Distributed projects: RMB 0.78-0.85/W 

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.74-0.78/W 

Inventory pressure remains severe. Polysilicon pileups alone have surpassed 300,000 MT, with buyers reportedly holding an additional 100,000 MT or more. Wafer inventories have also edged up to 20–23 GW. While cell inventories remain tightly controlled at 3–5 days, weakening demand poses a risk of accumulation. Module inventories have also increased slightly, now reaching 1.5 to 1.8 months. As forecast last year, inventory buildup is becoming a structural norm in the market.

Ahead of the SNEC, some manufacturers had called for output control to manage output from the source. However, major players remain trapped in a prisoner’s dilemma, maintaining production despite losses in order to preserve market share. The strategy of stabilizing prices by curbing output at the upstream level remains highly precarious. InfoLink predicts that prices are unlikely to see a meaningful rebound in 2H25.

During the expo, leading industry players also called for consolidation. Integration, however, cannot be achieved overnight but requires substantial financial and human resources, along with time for negotiation. Factors such as cash flow resilience and debt ratio must be carefully evaluated. As a result, the prevailing wait-and-see sentiment may persist until late next year.
 

Exhibits at SNEC 2025: Breakthroughs and high-barrier innovations take center stage, with a surge in efficiency-enhancing technologies such as tandem and multi-cut cells.

InfoLink’s survey of 17 module manufacturers at this year’s SNEC covered a total of 103 module exhibits. In terms of cell technology, 14 companies showcased TOPCon modules, 5 presented HJT modules, and 9 exhibited xBC modules.

One of the key highlights of this year’s expo was the growing presence of perovskite-on-silicon tandem cells, particularly among leading silicon-based manufacturers. More companies are now integrating TOPCon or BC technologies with perovskite to push module efficiencies close to 27%, marking a notable advancement in high-efficiency module development.

Over 80% of modules on display used rectangular wafers larger than 188 mm, with more than half adopting the 182*210 format. Module power ratings continued to climb, with 700 W+ modules widely displayed and 800 W+ modules also emerging. Efficiency-enhancing technologies such as tandem and multi-cut designs were featured across several exhibits.

 

Homogeneous competition drives search for breakthroughs: diverse applications emerge

• Lightweight modules are gaining attention due to the limited load-bearing capacity of rooftop distributed projects and the additional reinforcement costs involved. Current offerings are mainly divided into two types: lightweight rigid and lightweight flexible. As cell technologies advance, more products are adopting TOPCon and BC high-efficiency cells, though some manufacturers continue to opt for PERC cells based on overall reliability considerations.

• Floating PV faces fewer issues related to land ownership compared with land-based PV. Market interest, however, has declined this year due to recent policy fluctuations. Higher manufacturing and project costs—stemming from water resistance and reliability requirements—also limit broader adoption.

• Desert PV projects in China are primarily concentrated in the second and third phases of the “Desert and Gobi” large-scale bases in the northwest. These projects benefit from easier land acquisition and the added value of contributing to desertification control, driving growing interest in PV desert control initiatives. However, in some regions like Inner Mongolia, factors such as local production capacity, grid flexibility, and energy-storage self-use requirements have hindered large-scale deployment in 2025.

• Vertical modules have seen limited adoption in China in the past. However, with the release of Document No. 136 and the shift toward electricity market liberalization, midday electricity prices have dropped to valley levels in some provinces. In response, manufacturers are developing new solutions and business models—one of which involves east–west vertical installation of bifacial modules. Unlike conventional vertical setups, these modules face east or west, helping to adjust the timing of power generation peaks to better match high-value time slots.