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| Author | Jonathan Chou |
| Updated | April 25, 2025 |
On April 21, 2025 (U.S. Eastern Time), the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) issued its final determinations in the Antidumping Duty (AD) and Countervailing Duty (CVD) investigations on cells exported from the four Southeast Asian countries—Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam—as well as modules assembled using cells from these countries.
The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) is scheduled to determine in June 2025 whether PV product imports from these four Southeast Asian countries have damaged the US domestic industry.
If the USITC issues an affirmative ruling, the final AD/CVD rates will be imposed as scheduled. If the USITC instead issues a negative ruling, the duties will be withdrawn. However, based on precedents from previous U.S. AD/CVD investigations on PV products from various countries, a negative ruling from the USITC will be unlikely. Accordingly, the final AD/CVD rates are highly likely to be implemented.
Comparison of preliminary and final AD/CVD rates for major manufacturers in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam
In summary, based on the final AD/CVD rates, only Hanwha Q Cells Malaysia saw a slight reduction from its preliminary rate. All other major PV manufacturers across the four Southeast Asian countries faced significant increases in duty rates. Considering only the AD/CVD rates—excluding other applicable U.S. import duties—Malaysia remains the only country with limited potential to continue exporting to the U.S., while Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam have effectively lost economic viability for U.S.-bound PV products.
U.S.-bound tariff rates on solar cells and modules from major manufacturing countries
Based on the final rulings of AD/CVD, Section 201 tariffs, and the 10% reciprocal tariff, products exported to the U.S. that are subject to AD/CVD have effectively lost economic viability for Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. Although most final rates for Malaysia have also increased, given the continued shortage of solar cell supply in the U.S., some manufacturers in Malaysia may still absorb additional costs and continue exporting.
As local policy requirements in India and Turkey (officially Tükiye) mandate the use of domestically produced cells in certain projects—and given the relatively limited cell capacity in both countries—solar cells manufactured there cannot fully meet U.S. market demand. Taking all factors into account, Indonesia and Laos, with their lower overall tariff rates and well-established cell capacity, are likely to remain the primary suppliers of U.S. cells in the short term, assuming no major policy changes.
U.S. PV supply chain and market outlook
According to InfoLink’s forecast, U.S. PV demand may reach 42 GWdc in 2025. Assuming that overall demand remains unchanged and that prices of imported products from the four Southeast Asian countries have not sharply declined to offset various tariffs, the U.S. is likely to face a shortage of cell supply in 2025. However, the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. in early April has pushed up the cost of raw material imports and projects, while increasing uncertainty surrounding PV-related policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could further weaken market demand in Q2. Nevertheless, since the full impact of the AD/CVD and reciprocal tariffs has yet to be realized, InfoLink will continue monitoring policy developments and changes across the supply chain. Adjustments to U.S. PV installation and demand forecasts remain possible.
In the current landscape of rising policy risks and intensifying market competition, exporters must closely follow global political and economic trends, expand overseas sales channels, and strengthen brand value to keep competitive.
InfoLink continuously monitors the impacts of U.S. tariffs and offers the following services:
• Updates on US supply chain construction plans and progress
• Breaking news analysis of US policy changes and updates
• Insights into alternative markets through global PV market assessments
Contact us for customized consulting services to find new business opportunities amid risks.