Global PV Customs Data Analysis Report
Uncover country-level insights and supply chain dynamics across six key markets.
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| Author | Jenny Lin |
| Updated | August 06, 2025 |
Background
On July 17, 2025, the Ministry of Trade of Türkiye (Turkey) announced an increase in the reference import price for PV cells from USD 85/kg to USD 170/kg, signaling a 100% adjustment. The new regulation will take effect 60 days after its publication. This change follows a prior revision in 2024, when the reference price was raised from USD 60/kg to USD 85/kg.
Possible VAT scenarios under the PV cell minimum import price (MIP) regime
Taking current exports of 183N cells from China to Turkey as an example, the CIF price stands at approximately USD 0.041/W, which is significantly lower than Turkey’s MIP threshold.
As the Turkish authorities have yet to clarify how the 20% VAT will be applied under the MIP regime, InfoLink outlines three possible scenarios for reference. The calculations are based on 183N cells, assuming a weight of 10.14 g/piece and 1.197 g/W.
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Scenario 1: The 20% VAT is applied based on the CIF import price
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Scenario 2: The 20% VAT is applied based on the official MIP
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Scenario 3: The 20% VAT is applied based on the difference between the MIP and CIF price
In practice, gross weights declared by different manufacturers vary, as the total shipment weight includes not only the cells but also packaging materials. As the increase in total weight affects the gap between the MIP and CIF price, the actual taxable amount may generally be around USD 0.003–0.005/W higher than the estimate presented in this scenario.
InfoLink’s analysis
According to InfoLink’s research, compared with directly applying VAT based on the MIP, the third scenario—where VAT is levied based on the price gap between the MIP and the CIF price—is more consistent with current customs declaration practices. It also better reflects the actual differences in tax burden resulting from variations in packaging configuration and gross weight among manufacturers. Given the significant gap between the MIP and the prevailing import prices, manufacturers are less likely to raise their prices to meet the MIP threshold.
Considering the three VAT scenarios discussed above, even under the strictest second scenario 2—namely, adopting USD 170/kg MIP as the taxable base—the post-tax prices of Chinese cells exported to Turkey remain significantly lower than those of domestic products, underscoring a strong cost advantage. With the new MIP taking effect in 60 days, the market may see a short-term surge in stockpiling, likely driving up both import prices and demand.
Beyond pricing, Turkey’s tight domestic cell supply further drives demand for imports. The country has been promoting PV supply chain localization, requiring a share of domestic wafers, cells, and modules in tender projects. However, cell capacity is projected to reach only 5.7 GW by the end of 2025 and up to 14.2 GW in 2026 at best, falling significantly short of the country’s projected module capacity, which is expected to exceed 20 GW during the same period. Given the slower cell capacity expansion, some module producers are expected to rely on imported cells in the near term. Additionally, many non-tender C&I distributed projects are exempt from localization policies, leaving room for imports of Chinese and other foreign cells.
Overall, Turkey is gradually building a more protectionist market framework through anti-dumping duties, import price thresholds, and localization policies. However, given the country’s limited domestic cell manufacturing capacity, Chinese cells are expected to continue serving as a crucial stopgap in the short term, leveraging their cost advantage. Moving forward, policy implementation and the pace of domestic capacity build-out will remain key variables shaping future market dynamics.
