| Date | May 24, 2023 |
|---|
InfoLink Consulting was invited by inverter supplier SMA Solar Technology AG to attend the Energy System Storage seminar held on May 24 in Shanghai, where Pierre Chen (陳禹碩), assistant energy storage analyst of InfoLink, presented an overview of the solar and energy storage market.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil accounted for 40.3% of global energy consumption in 2019, while electricity accounted for 19.7%. Chen estimated that by 2035, the share of electricity consumption will increase to 34.9%, while oil will decline to 25.3%.
Amid the decarbonization trend, electricity will become the main form of energy consumption of end users worldwide, with the share of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasing year by year.
Chen emphasized that the power system must be transformed, adding that electrochemical storage will play a key part and shift from its current role of auxiliary and regulation services to assisting in the transformation of the grid into a distributed grid to move towards intelligence, indicating the importance of microgrid-related solutions.
The global solar market is growing steadily, with installed capacity exceeding 200 GW in 2022 and expected to approach 300 GW in 2023. The global storage market, on the other hand, is growing rapidly, with grid connections increasing from 23 GWh in 2021 to 44 GWh in 2022, and is projected to grow 123% to 98 GWh in 2030, driven by market expansion in China and the U.S., as well as delayed demand in the U.S.
The front-of-the-meter (FTM) installations will continue to dominate the energy storage market, with an estimated share of 65% to 70% by 2030. 2026 will see another increase, with an estimated cumulative capacity of nearly 2,000 GWh by 2030.
In terms of the European residential energy storage market, Germany will see a steady annual increase to over 2 GWh, while Italy's installations are expected to decline to 1 GWh to 1.5 GWh with the end of the Superbonus 110 scheme. Greece's Photovoltaics on the Roof program, on the other hand, is expected to stimulate about 0.25 GWh of installations. It is estimated that the residential energy storage installations in Europe will reach 7 GWh to 8 GWh by 2023.
In the U.S. residential energy storage market, installations are estimated to exceed 3 GWh by 2023 due to the applicable installation volumes, Net Energy Metering (NEM) 3.0, and relaxed subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Combined with other regions, it is estimated that the global residential storage installations will come in at around 14 GWh to 15 GWh by 2023.
Regarding the trend of lithium-ion battery prices, as lithium carbonate prices fell, the average price of batteries has dropped to RMB 0.65-0.70/Wh. The rebound of the utilization rate and excess capacity of batteries will keep the prices of lithium-ion batteries and energy storage installations low. The average price of DC energy storage is expected to reach RMB 0.96/Wh in 2023, approaching RMB 0.9/Wh in the second half of the year. Such low prices will help reduce the market's reliance on government subsidies.
Speaker
Energy Storage Assistant Analyst
Pierre is an assistant analyst of the energy storage research team. Prior to this role, he served at private equity firm, analyzing lithium battery industry and EV industries. Currently, Pierre focuses on supply, demand, price trend, and market movements in the lithium battery industry. He works closely with Tier-1 energy storage companies and is closely heeding market movements of global electrochemical energy storage and relevant materials, providing reliable, real-time information.