Module utilization rates remain low, putting cell manufacturers under huge pressure

Polysilicon

As previous orders were still being fulfilled this week, only few new polysilicon orders were signed between major manufactures, with average prices stabilized at RMB 200-210/kg. Prices for sporadic orders dropped to RMB 210-215//kg from previous high points of RMB 220/kg or above.

As a result, price range narrows continually. Next week, major manufacturers will start negotiating for long-term orders. With no inventory pressures, polysilicon prices are forecast to sustain in the short term, despite mid-stream price downtrends.

In overseas markets, polysilicon prices, which had surged to levels higher than domestic trading prices before, dropped and approached to where the latter were, with trading prices sitting at USD 27.2-28.5/kg.
 

Wafer

Mono-Si wafers saw increasing inventory levels as cell manufacturers kept utilization rates low. Recently, Tier-2 manufacturers, who had abided by Zhonghuan’s pricings, cut prices marginally. M6 wafers are mostly traded at RMB 5.05-5.08/piece on the market. G1 wafers, on the other hand, will see continually decreasing production volumes next month, as demand weakens after historic orders are fulfilled. Overall, wafer prices this week stayed at last week’s level as the market awaited latest pricings from leading wafer manufacturers.

Multi-Si wafers were markedly affected by demand contractions of the cell sector. Doubled with previous bigger price hikes, some traders began underselling wafers and drove down prices. Presently, overall prices are chaotic, sitting mostly at RMB 2.3-2.4/piece, while some wafers were undersold at prices lower than RMB 2.3/piece.
 

Cell 

The market sat on the fence in mid-June, with anticipations for wafer manufacturers to announce latest pricings on June 25. As major module makers stopped purchasing this week, pressuring cell manufacturers, prices for M6/M10/G12 mono-Si cells gradually declined to RMB 1.01-1.06/W. To control cash flows, medium scale cell manufacturers were obviously cutting prices for sale, with few orders for M6 cells in the low-price range being signed at RMB 1.01-1.02/W, some even offered quotes at around RMB 1/W. Overall, the market has not seen orders signed at prices lower than RMB 1/W. With enormous production capacity, cell manufacturers were at disadvantages when negotiating with buyers and began to see downtrends in prices. However, prices are not likely to plunge significant but decline steadily, as prices in the upstream sectors stabilized.

This week, multi-Si cells saw low trading volumes and slowed inventory draws, with prices dived to RMB 3.6-3.8/piece. Given dwindling demand and less of supply afterwards, such price downtrends will gradually cease.
 

Module 

Recently, prices for monofacial modules with a power output exceeding 500 W hovered at RMB 1.75-1.8/W for utility-scale projects and above RMB 1.8/W for distributed orders or spot orders. Spot prices in overseas markets stabilized above USD 0.245-0.25/W. Before wafer and cell sectors saw more evident price decreases, module prices will remain at current levels in recent terms.

In overseas markets, high module prices, doubled with skyrocketing ocean freight rates, brought increasing cost pressures to projects. Next month is going to be dismal for module demand, as foreign demand slows during July and August, whilst Chinese utility-scale projects are not getting off the ground very soon. As a result, low utilizations rates are expected to continue into July.