Prices may dip further in July as supply-demand imbalance persists

Polysilicon

Transaction volume remains sluggish, with most negotiations yet to be finalized. Buyers, still holding some polysilicon inventory, are pushing prices down to RMB 30–34/kg, with some indications of offers dipping below RMB 30/kg. However, no large-volume deals have been finalized at these levels. For sellers, this is a challenging period. 

Despite plans to increase production, weak orders and high costs make it hard to accept buyers' low prices. Leading manufacturers still sustain prices. Further declines are likely as inventory and sales pressure grow. Suppliers are adjusting their strategies. Demand for high-quality material is weak, while lower-grade material sees better demand as downstream buyers look to cut costs. Some suppliers may adopt bundled sales to manage inventory.

New orders are traded at nearly RMB 34-35/kg. Price range shows a slight downward trend, but limited transaction volumes have kept fluctuations minimal. Mainstream prices for China-made granular polysilicon land at RMB 33–35/kg. Polysilicon shipments from non-China markets remain affected by fluctuations, with the overall average price holding steady at USD 19/kg.

Large-volume deals hinge on ongoing negotiations among major producers. Final agreements may conclude in early July. Despite mixed market signals, polysilicon suppliers aim to stabilize prices. Some manufacturers have slightly increased production due to capacity reallocation in June. However, competition among suppliers is intensifying. Production cuts in July will be limited, with some manufacturers considering increasing output.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices continue to decline in late June, with mainstream formats falling further and market sentiment staying weak. 

Transaction prices:

• 183N: RMB 0.88–0.90/piece

• 210RN: RMB 1.01–1.03/piece, with most deals in the past two days closing at RMB 1.01/piece

• 210N: RMB 1.20–1.25/piece. Prices continue to soften, while bulk transactions are mostly at RMB 1.25/piece.

Price fluctuations this week suggest that, as more rapid production line shifts from 183N to 210RN, 210RN supply continues to increase, further reducing demand for 183N and 210N. Wafer prices continue to adjust, with 183N prices dropping significantly and the price gap between 210RN and other formats narrowing.

Some wafer manufacturers still have sufficient polysilicon inventory, and price negotiations remain in a stalemate. As some polysilicon suppliers plan to increase production, price fluctuations may intensify, adding more pressure to wafer prices. With end-market demand still weak, wafer prices are likely to stay under pressure in the short term, and the market outlook remains pessimistic.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

183N: 

• Average price: RMB 0.235/W (down) 
• Price range: RMB 0.23–0.24/W 

210RN: 

• Average price: RMB 0.26/W (down) 
• Price range: RMB 0.26-0.265/W 

210N: 

• Average price: RMB 0.25/W (down) 
• Price range: RMB 0.25–0.255/W

Manufacturers report a sharp decline in direct orders for July, leading to rising inventory levels. With pricing pressure from both upstream and downstream, cell prices have already fallen below average production costs—and in some cases, even below cash costs. Nonetheless, further price declines across all formats are likely next week. The overall outlook remains gloomy. Price stabilization will hinge on whether cell production sees a significant cut in July to ease the severe supply-demand imbalance driving the current price collapse.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China has slipped to USD 0.035/W. Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:  

The average export price for 183N cells from China has been flat at USD 0.031/W this week. However, as prices in China continue to drop, export premiums are narrowing, and overall price quotes for cells are still dropping. For higher-end Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices have stabilized at USD 0.11–0.12/W, averaging USD 0.12/W.

The average price of Southeast Asian cells exported to the U.S. has remained flat over time. With the 90-day window for U.S. reciprocal tariffs ending in early July, InfoLink will closely monitor upcoming policy developments.
 

Module prices in China

Module prices in China have remained at the previous week’s level, as most manufacturers continue to prioritize price stabilization amid weakening demand. In China, shipments for TOPCon modules priced below RMB 0.65–0.66/W have notably declined.

Demand remains weak heading into late June amid elevated market uncertainty. The downturn may extend through July and August, with manufacturers facing a subdued outlook for new orders. Manufacturers expect weak support for module prices and expect further declines ahead.

Module prices this week:

TOPCon glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60-0.72/W

• Bulk delivery: RMB 0.66-0.68/W

Ground-mounted projects:

• Prices stay at RMB 0.66–0.68/W amid falling demand.

• Lower-end prices (from previous deliveries): RMB 0.60–0.63/W

Distributed spot market: 

• Price drops have driven recent changes, as weak demand has prompted some manufacturers to lower their quotes.

• Spot prices this week: RMB 0.66–0.67/W (down)

• Some July orders under negotiation: RMB 0.63–0.65/W

Outlook:

• Module prices may dip further in July.

PERC glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60–0.70/W  

HJT:   

• RMB 0.71-0.83/W 

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.73-0.75/W   

• Overall deliveries may decline, mainly driven by ground-mounted projects.

N-TBC:

Distributed projects:

• Demand has weakened, causing some high-end prices to slip slightly by RMB 0.01–0.02/W.

• Current delivery prices: RMB 0.73–0.83/W

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.73–0.83/W

• Overall price quotes exclude distributor and inventory resale pricing.
   

Module prices in non-China markets

TOPCon module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W. In India, modules made with Chinese cells and assembled locally are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have recently begun sourcing cells from Southeast Asia.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.083–0.085/W. Manufacturers are gradually shifting more shipments to non-Europe markets. For Q4 orders, price negotiations are trending downward, approaching USD 0.08/W. BC module prices vary by application, with some scenarios reaching above USD 0.12/W.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.09/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. tariff policies, suppliers and project developers are still negotiating new quotes. Current trading prices are approaching USD 0.27–0.30/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally made modules are also trending upward.