This week, polysilicon and wafer makers have begun negotiating on the poly orders in September. Although the inventory is rather low, it is expected that the poly supply production will significantly increase in September compared to August. The volume and price negotiation of polysilicon will be rather easier.
However, with few poly inventory in both poly and wafer segment, it is unlikely that the poly price will take a downfall in early September. It is more likely that acceptable purchase prices will have difficulties maintaining at high levels because mono-Si wafer use will slightly increase in supply and multi-Si wafer price will continue to decrease. In September, productions of TBEA, OCI, Sino-Si, and HKS will all increase, while Daqo New Energy and Dunan will start the maintenance stage.
For oversea prices, selling side wants to sell higher price but buyers can’t accept it, so the dealing volumes were few, and basically the poly prices stayed consistent. Fluctuations did not show significant meaning.
This week, the multi-Si wafer price showed signs of lower quotes. Although the average price came to RMB 2.45/pc before the quote for spot price were released, it is expected that the common strike price will fall to RMB 2.35/pc by this Thursday and Friday. Apart from the fact that the downstream have seen lower demand for multi-Si products, bricks fell to RMB 105 to 110/kg, and the wafering price averaged between RMB 0.45 to 0.5/pc. As a result, multi-Si wafers had difficulties remaining high price, and both the highest price and average price will have apparent adjustments next week.
On another note, Longi’s quote for next month appears consistent with this month, so the price gap between mono-Si and multi-Si wafers will be determined by the decrease of multi-Si wafers.
No apparent adjustments have taken place in non-Chinese wafers, and the strike prices remained at US$ 0.32/pc, with only slight fluctuations.
In May and June, because the price gap between mono-Si and multi-Si wafers became larger, leading to ample demand for multi-Si products after the end of June; wafers and cells even saw slight rebound in prices during this period. However, starting from August, with India’s major demand for multi-Si products turning conservative and Turkey being low in demand, the popularity of multi-Si products took a downturn. Top-tier Chinese module makers are currently low in demand, and multi-Si cells saw a larger decrease this week.
China’s multi-Si cell prices went from RMB 0.97 – 1/W in last week to 0.95/W this week, a 5% decrease. Taiwan’s cell fell from US$ 0.13/W in last week to 0.12- 0.125/W this week. Although the prices went close to the cost line of Chinese cells, the buying force was still weak. Some multi-Si cell utilization rates have been reduced, while the inventory is still increasing, resulting in further downfall in the near future.
In addition, Thailand and Vietnam’s cells, which increased in prices following the release of India’s safeguard duty, took a downturn because of the uncertainty of the safeguard measures; the average price went down to US$ 0.13/W. It has been rumored that future trend for India’s safeguard duty will be clearer next week; Thai and Vietnamese cell trends are to be determined by the duty rate.
Conventional mono-Si cells did not see a significant amount of new orders, remaining at RMB 1 – 1.02/W. Mono-Si PERC cells were also low in demand, with the price in China maintained at RMB 1.08-1.12/W. For oversea price, a price gap has formed as Chinese manufacturers’ quotes for non-Chinese markets fell to US$ 0.14-0.15/W, between Taiwanese cell quotes remain to US$ 0.16-0.165.
Although the cell segment has felt the arrival of a low season, top-tier manufacturers with orders from non-Chinese market still have support until September. Most major companies only slightly reducing their production, with top-tier module makers averaging 80% to 90% in utilization rates.
Trends for India’s safeguard measures and Europe’s MIP will both become clearer in the next two weeks. Should India continue the 25% duty rate, India’s demand in Q4 will be extremely low, so will be the global demand in 2019 H1.
In the European market, whether the MIP will be canceled or be replaced with another form of trade barrier are still up in the air, but the EU has announced to confirm if the MIP will discontinue on September 3. Should it be suspended, the demand from Europe will be higher in the long run, but market prices will take a downfall in the short run due to the disappearance of the trade barrier. Both market price and profit levels for the European market will decrease dramatically, and top-tier manufacturers will also recess in their market shares in the region.