Polysilicon supply shrank in August due to maintenance, and two poly makers were forced to partially cease production due to accidents. As a result, with a tight supply, the prices did not take a downfall despite weakened demand.
Polysilicon prices stayed flat this week, and major fluctuations are only likely to happen in late-September, as there are no inventories in both polysilicon and wafer sectors as of now. The next month will be a tug-of-war situation for the polysilicon and wafer segments. On another note, non-Chinese markets did not witness further price increase; some sellers were even willing to settle for prices lower than the bottom price. However, no deals were made due to the fact that the offered prices were still higher than the buyers’ expectation. Therefore, the prices remain at the same level as last week.
Wafer prices stayed consistent with the last week. Although downstream cells witnessed an apparent recession, and the prices went down at a fast pace, the wafer segment stayed unaffected. Non-Chinese multi-Si wafers went down as due to US dollar currency rates; other products like China’s mono-Si, multi-Si and non-Chinese mono-Si wafers all stayed consistent.
For overall future development of the wafer segment, apparent fluctuations will happen in mid or late August. As previously estimated, demand for multi-Si wafers will decrease, and the mono-Si have not received support so far, but demand will bounce back in late August. In September, mono-Si wafers are likely to regain support, while multi-Si wafer makers will need to consider another round of price battle, or to stay competitive by changing wafer sizes.
As India has paused its safeguard duty, its demands for cells and modules from different countries currently stay conservative. Turkey’s demands have been low as well due to economic factors. With the downturns of the two major demanding countries for multi-Si cells, multi-Si cells have been unpopular in non-Chinese markets, and top Chinese module makers currently stay low in demand for cells, resulting in pressure hovering over the cell inventory. Subsequently, prices started to go down this week, as multi-Si cells fell to RMB 0.97 – 1/W, and prices averaging US$ 0.13/W have shown in non-Chinese markets.
Conventional multi-Si cells did not receive ample new orders, leading to a steady average price of RMB 1 – 1.02/W. Mono-Si PERC cells will have apparent growth only in September, when the Top Runner Program launches. The buying force has been unpromising so far this month, leading to a constantly decreasing price. Mono-Si PERC cells recently fell to RMB 1.1/W, and US$ 0.15-0.165/W in non-Chinese markets.
Demand from India remains to be observed, and Europe’s MIP stays unclear in terms of future movements; further, the Top Runner Program is the only certain support for the Chinese market as of now. Therefore, global module demand will stay low in Q3 and Q4. It is expected that the module segment will continue its downtrend in the future.