This week, polysilicon prices for mono-Si wafers remained stable at RMB 58–60/kg and RMB 59/kg on average, as most producers are filling previous orders and fewer deals were clinched. The prices have declined further than expected because of a demand lull in Q2 and consecutive mono-Si wafer price cuts. It appears that polysilicon producers hold a strong intention to test the market waters by raising prices—and some of them will go for an RMB 1–2/kg increase in their quotes.
However, producers will limit their stocks to meet their fiscal targets for the quarter as Q2 is coming to an end, trading prices for polysilicon may not improve much.
This week’s polysilicon prices for multi-Si wafers stabilized at RMB 29–31/kg and RMB 30/kg on average, as end-market demand for multi products is slowly recovering and multi-Si wafer producers are operating at low capacity and so have low demand for polysilicon. Overseas polysilicon prices did not change much this week because only a handful of deals were signed. The polysilicon prices averaged USD 6.8/kg for mono-Si wafers and USD 4.7/kg for multi-Si wafers.
With several Chinese makers maintaining their production lines and two overseas producers respectively undergoing equipment maintenance and running at low capacity, polysilicon supply will shrink further in China and overseas markets. As end-market demand is picking up, polysilicon prices for mono-Si wafers will start to increase steadily for the short term.
While mono-Si wafer maker cut prices again last week, there’s not much room for multi-Si wafer prices to decline further. Multi-Si wafer supply has shrunk further since producers are running at low capacity. But as vertically integrated companies continued to receive orders for multi products and the Indian market showed some signs of recovery, multi-Si wafer prices sustained less decline this week, coming in at RMB 1.05–1.15/piece in the market and RMB 1.1/piece on average.
Overseas multi-Si wafer prices stayed at USD 0.15–0.154/piece and averaged USD 0.152/piece this week, as Indian customers started making requests for quotes, although no orders have been placed so far.
Chinese mono-Si wafer prices hovered this week at RMB 2.36–2.52/piece for G1 and RMB 2.52–2.61/piece for M6, mainly because Tier-1 makers held up their prices. With prices coming increasingly closer to the break-even point of Tier-2 and 3 makers, the price gaps narrow between Tier-1 smaller producers. So, Tier-1 makers will be able to reduce their stocks.
As new production lines are coming online as scheduled and will continue to go smoothly in Q3, while producers are operating with a utilization rate of 90%, mono-Si wafer supply will continue to outstrip demand. In this case, mono-Si wafer prices may be cut a second time this month—but by a smaller degree than before.
Mono-Si cell prices for G1 and M6 were consistent this week with their previous levels, coming in at RMB 0.79–0.8/W in China and averaging USD 0.1/W in overseas markets. The prices look set to remain stable in the first half of June thanks to the June 30 installation boom in China and the gradual recovery of some overseas markets, but they may resume their slow decline as the installation boom winds down in mid-June.
On the supply side, prices for M6-sized mono-Si cells will be relatively stable and show slower decline than those for G1 ones, largely because there’s only a small number of producers make M6-sized mono-Si cells now. Although some producers are shifting to manufacture M6-sized cells, how the mainstream cell size changes over time remains to be seen.
Prices for M2-sized mono-Si cells—which were recently consistent with those for G1 ones because of the June 30 installation boom and diminished production capacity—sat at RMB 0.79–0.8/W this week. A handful of deals were even clinched at RMB 0.8–0.82/W. However, when the installation boom ends, M2 mono-Si cells will stop rising and begin to fall.
Multi-Si cell prices stayed at an average of RMB 2.3/piece. The prices will remain stable for a short period of time—considering that businesses in some regions of India, the largest market of multi products, had reopened despite an extended lockdown until the end of June, allowing some multi-Si cell producers to negotiate orders and make deliveries to their Indian customers.
The June 30 installation boom is drawing to a close. After the boom ends, the Chinese module market will again hit by a slack. Moreover, the bid prices unveiled recently showed that module makers offered increasingly lower quotes to secure orders. These aggressive low quotes can also be ascribed to rising module power output and falling costs per wattage.
The market prices for modules to be delivered in Q3 are RMB 1.5–1.55/W. Yet, Q4 will see a growing number of modules delivered at a market price lower than RMB 1.5/W, pushing down overseas module prices to as low as USD 0.19/W at the end of this year.