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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | June 21, 2023 |
Polysilicon
Upstream prices gradually reach the lowest point, but whether they will bottom out requires further observation. The outlook looks gloomier than the industry expects.
Polysilicon price decline extends this week. Tier-1 manufacturers see prices sitting at RMB 65-70/kg, while their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers cut prices to RMB 60-65/kg involuntarily. Average polysilicon prices drop to RMB 68/kg, a 12.8% week-on-week decrease, milder than the past two weeks. Overall, prices are in the bottom range, with the low-price range dipping lower, even below RMB 60/kg. Still, factoring out low-quality polysilicon, prices have yet to reach RMB 60/kg.
As prices keep closing in on the overall production cost, challenging the profitability of existing capacities and returns in cash of the new ones, which become unprofitable right after commissioning. As competition intensifies, the room for further price declines in the third quarter is contracting.
There are heated discussions on whether to stockpile and buy the dip or not. For now, buyers with increasing production capacity engage more actively to meet their inelastic demand, while some remain cautious towards future price trend.
Wafer
Wafer prices continue falling before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Traders and cell manufacturers start buying the dip as prices come in at favorable levels, depleting wafer inventory. There are currently 8-10 GW of wafer inventory, most of which are p-type wafers. With a healthier inventory level, wafer prices stabilize. As in the polysilicon sector, prices sustain less decrease when approaching production costs.
Prices come in at RMB 2.8/piece and RMB 4.2/piece for M10 and G12 wafers, decreasing by 8-10% this week. G12 wafers lose their advantage in price-performance ratio per watt to M10 ones.
Buyers buy the dip in a rational manner, only purchasing for production. As prices approach the lowest point, the room for further declines is limited. Next week, wafer prices will stay on a slow downward trend. With less inventory pressure, some manufacturers plan to raise production plans in July. Inventory level and price trend in the future hinge on changes in utilization rates.
Cell
Cell prices drop due to wafer price declines, despite fair demand and monthly production output increasing to 46 GW.
Cell prices continue falling this week, coming in at RMB 0.71-0.72/W and RMB 0.75/W for M10 and G12 cells, decreasing by 7-8%.
For M10 TOPCon cells, prices drop in line with wafer prices, coming in at RMB 0.79/W. N-type cell prices sustain RMB 0.07/W higher than p-type ones. Also affected by wafer price declines, the few suppliers of G12 HJT cells see prices drop to RMB 1/W.
Thanks to sustained demand, cell prices drop slower than wafer prices. Large-format cells still have fair profitability. As forecast last week, cells shed value when profits in upstream and downstream sectors distribute unevenly. Module makers keep pressuring cell manufacturers, hoping to reach agreements on new price quotes before the holiday. The target price for M10 PERC cells is no higher than RMB 0.7/W. In the future, cell prices will continue falling slowly in line with wafer prices. The sector will sustain fair profits in June.
The gap between prices for n-type and p-type cells narrows as TOPCon manufacturers promote products by reducing their premiums against PERC ones.
Module
Price declines across the supply chain slow down. Some module makers plan to raise prices. Module makers strive to keep production costs in check, shifting pressures to the cell sector.
Few module makers deliver new orders this week, with most of them focusing on selling inventory at RMB 1.3/W this week. As inventory gradually returns to a healthy level, module prices pare declines, sustaining at RMB 1.4-1.45/W. However, current negotiations show module makers to seal new orders for the third quarter at RMB 1.35-1.4/W. Pricing strategies vary hugely among module makers. Some manage to deliver previous orders above RMB 1.5-1.6/W, while most seal new orders at much lower prices of RMB 1.35-1.4/W. The low-price range on the spot market now sits at RMB 1.3-1.35/W. Overall, prices display a large disparity.
Negotiations between and the cautious attitude of buyers and sellers affect the progress of projects in China. Deliveries of some new orders in July are delayed, of which the resumption hinges on whether supply chain prices will stabilize. Production plans in July remain obscure.
The cautious market sentiment ripples across markets outside of China, where module makers deliver at USD 0.195-0.21/W (FOB) in June. In Europe, prices drop to USD 0.19-0.2/W due to inventory concerns. Some module makers seal new orders at USD 0.17-0.19/W for the second half of the year.
For G12 HJT modules, average prices lose ground to RMB 1.74-1.75/W. Module makers deliver at RMB 1.69-1.78/W recently. Some module makers stop offering price quotes due to supply chain disruptions. In non-China markets, prices sit at USD 0.21-0.25/W for the time being.
M10 TOPCon module prices remain at RMB 1.5-1.66/W this week, with average prices dropping marginally to RMB 1.55/W. Module makers will deliver at RMB 1.4/W in the third quarter. In non-China markets, prices hold steady at USD 0.2-0.23/W, with a premium of USD 0.005-0.01/W against prices for PERC modules.