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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | August 30, 2023 |
*N-type wafer prices and TOPCon cell prices in dollar terms will be available from September onwards.
Polysilicon
Polysilicon manufacturers are taking new orders while delivering some previous orders at the end of this August. Though individual Tier-1 manufacturer has yet to announce the price quote, new price range of some Tier-1 and Tier-2 falls at RMB 83-89/kg, within which more orders were sealed. The new price range rises 6.7% month-on-month, a rather noticeable increase.
As for previously signed orders, some of them include pricing adjustment terms and pricing revisions may occur accordingly, while some orders are delayed or unfinished due to the unsatisfactory shipment arrangements and frequency, which may allow orders to be delivered at the price agreed previously. Given the polysilicon output during July and August is lower than expected, commissioning and manufacturing progress of new production capacity fail expectation. Coupled with the revisions of manufacturers’ output ratio, the tight supply in polysilicon sector remains, stimulating the energy for negotiating and signing orders for this September.
Manufacturers’ price quotes of polysilicon for n-type ingot segment rose to RMB 89-96/kg. If factoring in price quotes from trading sectors, prices could be higher.
Wafer
Despite rallying polysilicon prices, wafer manufacturers’ room for profit is recovering given the price increases caused by the mismatch between n-type and p-type formats.
Trading prices stabilize this week. Prices come in at RMB 3.33-3.35/piece for p-type M10 wafers and RMB 4.35/piece for G12 wafers, for which some manufacturers continue negotiating. Prices for n-type M10 and G12 wafers with a thickness of 130μm reach RMB 3.47/piece and RMB 4.47/piece, respectively. G12 wafers in both n-type and p-type format maintain a superior price-performance ratio per watt.
Manufacturers are focusing more on the supply-demand relationship in downstream sectors in September. If the planned cell production output stays high and progress of n-type cell capacity commissioning gets faster, wafer supply, led by n-type wafers, will stay low, which may cause prices to rise further.
Cell
The cell sector is in a passive position presently. Despite the room for profit has been enlarged much in recent months, the profit of the cell sector has started to decline due to that the momentum of price hike is obstructed by upstream price rises and the weak acceptance of the module sector.
Cell prices have stayed stable toward the end of the month, sitting at RMB 0.75/W for M10 cells and RMB 0.73/W for G12 cells. Prices for M10 TOPCon cells come in at RMB 0.79-0.81/W. N-type cell prices sustain RMB 0.05-0.06/W higher than p-type ones. G12 HJT cells, with few suppliers, see prices come in at RMB 0.85/W.
Cell manufacturers are expected to maintain the efficient production plans in the September, and the n-type capacity is coming online. Demand for cells hinges on module makers’ production plans. As cell prices are relatively high, Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers curtailed the purchase quantity and decided to sit on the fence, making the scale of Tier-1 module makers’ production plans the key factor of the cell price trend.
Module
Module prices remain stable this week, with average prices stagnating at RMB 1.21-1.25/W. For ground-mounted projects, module prices mostly come in at RMB 1.23-1.25/W, but some manufacturers have begun to deliver at prices lower than RMB 1.2/W. Delivery prices for previous orders come in at RMB 1.3-1.35/W.
Prices for distributed generation projects stabilize at RMB 1.2-1.23/W, with the low-price range lingering at RMB 1.15-1.18/W, and the high-price range sitting at RMB 1.28/W.
Price hike is the hot topic in the module sector. While the momentum of price hike, accumulating since this August, is still not there yet, module makers get more pressure as the BOM prices rose. Though module manufacturers revise up their price quotes by RMB 0.01-0.02/W, customers’ acceptance are limited as Tier-1 module makers accept lower forward prices, many being lower than RMB 1.2/W, to vie for orders. This September, most likely, prices will stabilize, and should it rise, it will be marginal.
For n-type modules, prices stabilize this week. TOPCon modules are delivered at RMB 1.25-1.38/W and USD 0.17-0.22/W, with the premium against PERC ones sustaining at USD 0.01/W overseas. For HJT modules, prices remain at RMB 1.5-1.6/W in China, but prices for the spot inventory come in at RMB 1.45/W. In non-China markets, HJT module prices sit at USD 0.195-0.2/W.
Chinese exporters deliver products at USD 0.16-0.18/W (FOB) this week. In Asia-Pacific, module makers deliver at USD 0.16-0.17/W. Prices for local modules in India, affected by prices of modules imported from China and Southeast Asia, come in at USD 0.25-0.26/W. In Europe, spot prices drop to EUR 0.15-0.165/W, with modules with black backsheets possessing a premium of EUR 0.02-0.025/W. Some module makers keep selling off inventory. With orders signed prior to deliveries, modules for ground-mounted projects in the U.S. see a steady price trend. Meanwhile, for distributed generation projects, module prices are subject to market demand and thus more volatile. Presently, the price disparity between the two is rather huge, sitting at USD 0.3-0.42/W (DDP).