Prices are flat amid lackluster post-holiday trading

Polysilicon

Polysilicon demand increased, thanks to steady and even higher utilization rates of the ingot segment throughout February, including during the Lunar New Year holiday, and pre-holiday stockpiling activities.

The polysilicon sector was still recovering from the holiday. Prices and supply were little changed. Nevertheless, uncertainty loomed as to whether prices can continue to rebound in March. Given current price levels, profitability of downstream sectors, and high utilization rates of the ingot segment, the polysilicon buyers and manufacturers will remain in standoffs in March. Whether the wafer sector will allow further increases in polysilicon prices hinges on the dynamics between wafer production costs and sales prices.
 

Wafer

N-type wafers have expanded market penetration faster since early this year. With manufacturers allocating larger portions of capacities to n-type production, n-type wafer production volume will reach 43 GW in February, translating to an impressive 73% n-type penetration rate. Meanwhile, the substantial transitions to n-type production affected the supply and demand of p-type wafers. Market prices vary significantly among different formats. N-type M10 wafers, making up most of the inventory, will see prices remaining low. P-type M10 wafers, on the other hand, will experience marginal price hikes due to a tight balance amid technology transition.

Trading prices held steady this week, coming in at RMB 2-2.05/piece and RMB 2.8-2.9/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers, respectively. For n-type wafers, trading prices stabilized at RMB 2/piece and RMB 3.08-3.1/piece for M10 and G12 ones, respectively.

After the holiday, the wafer sector kept high utilization rates. Inventory piles up gradually. The market heeds chain effects wafer production plans may trigger in March.
 

Cell

Cell prices saw signs of rebound after the significant production reduction. Buyers and sellers engaged in ongoing negotiations, with cell makers eyeing for higher price quotes at RMB 0.4/W for p-type 182mm cells. Whether they can raise prices successfully depends on the affordability of module makers.

Trading prices for p-type cells sustained, coming in at RMB 0.38-0.40/W and RMB 0.37-0.38/W for M10 and G12 cells, respectively. Meanwhile, leading, non-vertically integrated cell manufacturers maintained price premiums, with prices for high-efficiency products reaching RMB 0.39-0.4/W.

This week, mainstream trading prices for n-type M10 cells were relatively stable, averaging RMB 0.46-0.47/W. The price gap between TOPCon and PERC cells stabilized at RMB 0.08-0.09/W. G12 HJT cells saw prices coming in at RMB 0.6-0.7/W for high-efficiency ones.
 

Module

Module demand remained sluggish after the holiday. This week saw few deliveries and prices stabilizing temporarily. Average prices came in at RMB 0.88-0.9/W for PERC modules, with the low-price range reaching RMB 0.78-0.84/W. Average prices for TOPCon modules sat at RMB 0.95-0.98/W, with increasing medium-scale manufacturers offering price quotes at RMB 0.9-0.92/W and the low-price range reaching RMB 0.85-0.9/W.

Due to sales pressure, some manufacturers offered discounts to attract more orders. HJT module prices came in at RMB 1.04-1.25/W in China and lingering at USD 0.140-0.170/W in non-China markets.

In February, module makers planned 37-38 GW of production globally. The outlook for March is obscure, given still _ order intake and the undetermined timing of demand recovery.