Fierce market competition leads to supply-chain-wide hemorrhages

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices have been declining for several weeks and show no sign of stopping amid bearish market sentiment. The mainstream market prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stood at RMB 38-42/kg; average prices fell to around RMB 41/kg, down 2.4%. Granular polysilicon prices came in at RMB 36.5-38/kg; average prices dropped to RMB 37/kg, down 5.1%. In overseas markets, polysilicon prices stabilized at USD 18-23.5/kg for now. Given there are very few polysilicon makers outside of China and have a large share of long-term orders, the average prices stayed at USD 21.5/kg. The USD prices reflect the mainstream price trends instead of translating from RMB directly.

Overall supply of polysilicon is still abundant. Some manufacturers have started cutting production and conducted maintenance ahead of time, but a larger scale of production cut won’t occur until the third quarter.

As of now, the mainstream prices are coming close to fall below RMB 40/kg. The range of price decline is narrowing and gradually stabilizing, but if the current prices have reached the cash cost level of all manufacturers while supply still remains high, polysilicon stock may reach a level of nearly three months at the end of the second quarter.
 

Wafer

Note: Wafer prices for 182mm wafers includes 182-183.75mm formats. Weekly spot price table will be adjusted to reflect this starting in June.

Manufacturers offered lower and lower quotes amid fierce price wars, especially for n-type 182mm wafers. Apart from Tier-1 manufacturers, the lowest quote from Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers purportedly reached below RMB 1.1/piece.

Wafer price continued collapsing this week, reaching RMB 1.2-1.3/piece and RMB 1.8/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers; RMB 1.1-1.15/piece, RMB 1.8/piece, and RMB 1.45-1.5/piece for n-type M10, G12, and G12R, respectively. Some formats experienced declines over 10%.

Current prices and inventory levels reflect the severe wafer oversupply. Manufacturers have been planning on production reduction, but the effect hinges on inventory depletion progress.

Cell

Note: Cell prices for 182mm include 182-183.75mm formats. Weekly spot price table will be adjusted to reflect this starting in June.

Cell prices continued to decrease this week, reaching RMB 0.31/W for p-type M10 cells and RMB 0.32/W for G12 ones. Given declines in wafer prices, prices kept falling to RMB 0.31/W for M10 TOPCon cells and RMB 0.55-0.6/W for G12 HJT high-efficiency cells. Given increasing transactions, InfoLink begins weekly spot price report for G12 TOPCon cells, which came in at RMB 0.36-0.38/W this week.

The price gap between M10 TOPCon and PERC cells diminished. Considering the historical trend of product phase-outs, prices for n-type and p-type M10 cells will undergo a reversal in the second half of 2024, with n-type ones becoming less expensive and p-type becoming more expensive.

Module makers have been pressuring cell prices in recent months through dual distribution and OEM businesses. The low-price range of the OEM fee of n-type M10 cells has reached RMB 1.4/piece.
 

Module

As prices dropped rapidly across the supply chain, projects are increasingly sitting on the fence. At present, the Chinese market mainly saw execution of auction and C&I projects, whereas demand in overseas markets is weak. In Europe, demand has been sluggish recently, with some module inventories rising slightly. Overall utilization rate may fall below expectation in May and such situation may continue into June.

TOPCon module prices came in RMB 0.88-0.90/W this week. Prices for projects are moving toward below RMB 0.9/W. Spot prices this week declined along with cell prices, with a significant large price gap, ranging from RMB 0.83/W to RMB 0.93/W. Manufacturers are grabbing orders by cutting prices recently, resulting in a rapid price decline in low-efficiency products, with prices ranging from RMB 0.74 to RMB 0.78/W. However, the low-range price this week does not reflect such prices as these projects are not of regular efficiency and the order model rules out the spot price reference.

Regarding other formats, prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.78-0.88/W. As China saw reduction in projects, prices start shifting to RMB 0.8-0.83/W. Prices for low-efficiency products fell rapidly, sitting at RMB 0.71-0.75/W. Yet, as these projects are not of regular efficiency and the order model rules out spot price reference, the low-price range this week does not reflect such prices. HJT modules, on the other hand, saw few projects being delivered recently. Prices hovered at RMB 0.97-1.18/W; average prices edged toward RMB 1.1/W, and the low-price range saw prices lower than RMB 1/W.

In overseas markets, PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.1-0.105/W.

TOPCon modules saw notable regional price divergence. Some are delivered at EUR 0.10-0.13/W in Europe and USD 0.12-0.13/W in Australia. However, the market prices stood at USD 0.10-0/12/W in Brazil and the Middle East. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.105-0.115/W and even declined to USD 0.09/W as some manufacturers are cutting prices to grab orders.

For HJT, prices stayed at USD 0.13-0.15/W for now.

Order volumes declined in the second quarter in the U.S., with market prices becoming more diverse recently. PERC modules for ground-mounted projects are delivered at USD 0.22-0.23/W while TOPCon modules at USD 0.23-0.36/W in DDP terms. Local manufacturers delivered modules for distributed generation projects at around USD 0.2-0.25/W in DDP terms.