Downstream prices keep falling amid ceaseless wafer price drops

Polysilicon

Polysilicon price declines continued in Chinea, reaching RMB 39-44/kg for mono-grade polysilicon, a 4.5% decrease. As of this Wednesday, orders below RMB 40/kg remained few for Tier-1 manufacturers, while their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers saw wider price ranges. For granular polysilicon, mainstream prices fell to RMB 37-39/kg, a 4.9% decrease. Similar to mono-grade polysilicon prices, the declines have been losing momentum.

Although at a slower pace, further decreases are still likely, given the increasing E&O and sales pressures, sluggish demand, and collapsing wafer prices. The overall supply is still considerable, despite some manufacturers reducing production and bringing forward maintenance. More significant reductions are likely in the third quarter.

Non-China polysilicon prices stabilized at USD 18-23.5/kg. While long-term orders still dominated the market, there have been some small-volume sporadic orders at higher price ranges. Recently, non-China polysilicon has seen weaker demand and less active shipments, as manufacturers in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are cautious due to uncertainties regarding U.S. measures against cell and module exports from the four countries.
 

Wafer

Note: Wafer prices for 182mm wafers includes 182-183.75mm formats. Weekly spot price table will be adjusted to reflect this starting in June.

Manufacturers offered lower and lower quotes amid fierce price wars, especially for n-type 183mm wafers. Apart from Tier-1 manufacturers, the lowest quote from Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers reached below RMB 1.2/piece. The irrational competition resulted in significant losses. Based on RMB 42/kg of average polysilicon price this week, wafer manufacturers still faced gross margins as low as -30%.

Wafer price continued collapsing this week, reaching RMB 1.3-1.4/piece and RMB 1.9-2/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers; RMB 1.2-1.25/piece, RMB 1.9-2/piece, and RMB 1.6-1.7/piece for n-type M10, G12, and G12R, respectively. Each format declined by 5-11%. N-type 183mm wafers only sustained prices at RMB 0.15/W, with a gap of RMB 0.03-0.04/W from p-type 182mm, p-type 210mm, and n-type 210mm wafers (RMB 0.18-0.19/W).

Current prices and inventory levels reflect the severe wafer oversupply. Risks will escalate, challenging business operations, if manufacturers continue to maintain high utilization rates.

Cell

Note: Cell prices for 182mm include 182-183.75mm formats. Weekly spot price table will be adjusted to reflect this starting in June.

Cell prices continued to decrease this week, reaching RMB 0.31-0.32/W for p-type M10 cells and RMB 0.33-0.34/W for G12 ones. Given declines in wafer prices, prices kept falling to RMB 0.32-0.34/W for M10 TOPCon cells and  RMB 0.55-0.6/W for G12 HJT high-efficiency cells. Given increasing transactions, InfoLink begins weekly spot price report for G12 TOPCon cells, which came in at RMB 0.37-0.39/W this week.

The price gap between M10 TOPCon and PERC cells has narrowed to RMB 0.02/W and will continue shrinking. Considering the historical trend of product phase-outs, prices for n-type and p-type M10 cells will undergo a reversal in the second half of 2024, with n-type ones becoming less expensive and p-type becoming more expensive.
 

Module

The Chinese market sustained order volumes in May, with centralized procurement projects accounting for most deliveries. Cautiousness pervaded due to price fluctuations across the supply chain. Non-China markets posted weaker demand and slightly increasing inventory levels.

Prices for TOPCon modules came in at RMB 0.88-0.92/W this week, mostly below RMB 0.9/W. For distributed-generation projects, prices slipped to RMB 0.85-0.93/W due to price declines across the supply chain.

For 182mm PERC glass-glass modules, prices sat at RMB 0.78-0.90/W this week, with projects in China experiencing a more noticeable decrease towards RMB 0.83-0.85/W. For HJT modules, prices fell to RMB 0.97-1.18/W, averaging RMB 1.1/W, with the low-price range reportedly reaching below RMB 1/W.

In non-China markets, PERC module prices slightly decreased to USD 0.1-0.105/W.

TOPCon module prices varied significantly by region, sitting at EUR 0.10-0.13/W in Europe, USD 0.12-0.13/W in Australia, and USD 0.10-0.12/W in Brazil and the Middle East, with module makers offering quotes below USD 0.09/W to secure orders.

As for HJT modules, prices stabilized at USD 0.13-0.15/W.

The U.S. placed fewer orders for the second quarter. Prices have varied more recently. For centralized-generation projects, prices (DDP) came in at USD 0.22-0.35/W for PERC modules and USD 0.23-0.36/W for TOPCon ones. For distributed-generation projects, local module makers delivered at USD 0.2-0.25/W (DDP).