Global PV Customs Data Analysis Report
Uncover country-level insights and supply chain dynamics across six key markets.
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| Author | Amy Fang |
| Updated | September 07, 2026 |
According to customs data compiled by InfoLink, China exported 15.23 GW of PV modules in July, down 13% MoM from 17.44 GW and 28% YoY from 21.25 GW. From January to July 2026, China exported 143.45 GW of modules in total, down 3% YoY from 148.60 GW. The cumulative YoY change turned negative in July for the first time this year. The cumulative YoY change was +5% for January–May and +1% for January–June.
This confirms InfoLink’s earlier assessment of the June rebound: the upturn was event-driven rather than demand-driven, and did not reverse the broader weakening trend in export momentum following the cancellation of export tax rebates.
As for cells, China exported 5.65 GW in July, down 5% MoM to another record low this year and down 39% YoY from 9.26 GW. From January to July this year, China exported 65.40 GW of cells, up 24% YoY, with cumulative growth narrowing further from around 37% in January–June.
Unlike in June, the total export volume of cells saw only limited fluctuation in July, but the regional structure underwent its most drastic reorganization of the year, with all three shifts corresponding to specific trade policy milestones.
The top five destinations for Chinese module exports in July, in descending order, were the Netherlands, Pakistan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Slovenia. The five countries together imported 5.55 GW, accounting for 36% of the total export volume. Europe remained the biggest regional market for Chinese modules, importing 6.87 GW in July, with its share rising to around 45% of total module exports. The Asia-Pacific region came in second, importing 3.64 GW, followed by the Americas (1.68 GW), the Middle East (1.59 GW), and Africa (1.46 GW). Unlike in June, when all five regions saw MoM increases, only the Americas grew in July, rising by around 10%, while the other four regions declined: Asia-Pacific by around 34%, Africa by 11%, the Middle East by 5%, and Europe by just 3%.
A breakdown of the approximately 2.20 GW decline in July compared to June reveals that the Asia-Pacific accounted for about 1.88 GW, representing over 80% of the total monthly drop, with Pakistan alone contributing a reduction of approximately 0.94 GW. In other words, this month's pullback does not reflect a global downturn, but a market correction following the shipping rush in June.
Europe
China exported 6.87 GW of modules to Europe in July, down merely 3% MoM. Europe experienced the smallest MoM decrease but saw a 31% YoY decline. From January to July, China exported 58.93 GW of modules to Europe, down 2% YoY.
In July, the Netherlands remained the largest European entry point for Chinese modules, sourcing 2.73 GW, followed by Slovenia (0.58 GW), Italy (0.49 GW), Belgium (0.49 GW), and France (0.48 GW).
Import volumes across markets continued to show divergent trends: figures rose for France (from 0.37 GW to 0.48 GW), Slovenia (from 0.47 GW to 0.58 GW), and Greece (from 0.36 GW to 0.42 GW), while declining for Germany (from 0.40 GW to 0.31 GW) and continuing to fall for Spain (from 0.42 GW to 0.31 GW).
Although the European market did not sustain June’s restocking-driven rebound, the decline in July was relatively limited, indicating the market’s rather stable absorption capacity. Looking ahead, the pace of imports will be increasingly influenced by the hosting capacity of power systems and policy compliance requirements. Key variables to watch include negative electricity prices and grid integration constraints in markets with high renewable penetration, the progress of energy storage deployment, and the pace of implementation of EU requirements regarding local manufacturing and procurement.
Asia-Pacific
China exported 3.64 GW of modules to the Asia-Pacific market in July, down sharply by 34% MoM and 25% YoY. From January to July, China exported 44.74 GW of modules to the Asia-Pacific. Among major markets, Pakistan imported 0.81 GW, down 54% MoM from 1.76 GW. Australia ranked second at 0.50 GW, followed by the Philippines (0.39 GW), Japan (0.31 GW), and Thailand (0.27 GW).
The pullback in Pakistan aligns with InfoLink’s earlier interpretation of the unusually high shipment volumes recorded in June. Ultimately, Pakistan’s Finance Act for the 2026-2027 fiscal year left the General Sales Tax (GST) on modules unchanged at 10%, effective July 1, 2026. Consequently, the surge in customs declarations seen in June, driven by efforts to avoid an anticipated 18% tax rate, translated into physical inventory pressure at the distribution-channel level in July, immediately dampening distributors' willingness to restock modules.
InfoLink expects Pakistan to continue destocking throughout Q3, making it unlikely, in the short term, for its import volume to return to the monthly average seen in the first half of the year. Any stabilization will hinge on future developments regarding local electricity prices and net metering policies.
Australia’s figures retreated from 0.79 GW to 0.50 GW, and the Philippines from 0.67 GW to 0.39 GW, both representing normal corrections following the high baseline of June, with no signs yet of structural weakening in demand. Meanwhile, module imports to India rose from 0.006 GW in June to approximately 0.07 GW, though volumes remain extremely low. Southeast Asian markets, including Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, continued to consolidate at low levels following disruptions to their export channels to the U.S., with July volumes recorded at approximately 0.27 GW, 0.13 GW, 0.12 GW, and 0.14 GW, respectively.
The Americas
China exported 1.68 GW of modules to the Americas in July, up 10% from June, making the Americas the only region witnessing an increased import volume, despite a 25% YoY decrease. From January to July, China exported 14.37 GW of modules to the Americas. Among major markets, Brazil imported 0.77 GW, continuing to rise from 0.67 GW in June. Following that were Mexico (0.24 GW), Colombia (0.12 GW), Panama (0.11 GW), and Chile (0.08 GW).
Brazil’s second consecutive monthly increase likely reflects timing adjustments driven by tax policies and import quotas rather than a fundamental shift in demand from the distributed segment. Starting in 2025, Brazil has secured a quota allowing import tariffs to be reduced from 25% to 9.6% for utility-scale projects exceeding 5 MW. This measure will be valid until July 2027.
Meanwhile, inverter import duties were raised from 12.6% to 20% in 2026. Combined with higher landed costs resulting from the cancellation of China’s export tax rebates, this has kept overall system cost under pressure.
The distributed segment continued to be constrained by grid connection limitations and uncertainties surrounding compensation mechanisms.
The Middle East
China exported 1.59 GW of modules to the Middle East in July, down 5% MoM and 39% YoY, the largest YoY decline among the five regions. From January to July, China exported 11.42 GW of modules to the Middle East. Major importing countries include Saudi Arabia (0.65 GW), Israel (0.25 GW), the UAE (0.16 GW), Oman (0.14 GW), and Iraq (0.07 GW).
Saudi Arabia’s import volume rose from 0.58 GW in June to 0.65 GW, overtaking the UAE as the most consistent source of demand in the Middle East. Oman saw a significant increase from 0.05 GW to 0.14 GW, while the UAE’s volume fell from 0.28 GW to 0.16 GW. The Middle East market is dominated by large ground-mounted PV plants and Independent Power Producer (IPP) projects, with monthly fluctuations primarily driven by delivery schedules and customs clearance timing.
Regarding policy, the Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) announced the list of qualified developers for the 5.3-GW Round 7 of the National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) in July, indicating that the tendering process has not stalled. However, actual procurement and delivery for these Round 7 projects will only be reflected in customs data after the power purchase agreements (PPAs) are signed, meaning their contribution to import volumes in the second half of 2026 will be limited.
Africa
China exported 1.46 GW of modules to Africa in July, down 11% MoM and 10% YoY. From January to July, Chinese module exports to Africa totaled 13.99 GW, up 57% YoY from 8.89 GW, making Africa the region with the strongest YoY growth this year. Major importing countries include South Africa (0.38 GW), Nigeria (0.30 GW), Egypt (0.30 GW), Sudan (0.08 GW), and Morocco (0.07 GW).
The driving forces behind the African module market remain unchanged. Factors including the electrification gap, off-grid and microgrid projects, and the need for backup power alongside energy cost pressures continue to serve as structural growth drivers over the medium to long term.
For Africa, the market shift this month occurred in the cell sector, which witnessed a trend diametrically opposed to that of June. As an emerging assembly hub, Africa faced the direct impact of U.S. trade remedy measures for the first time in July.
Cell exports
China exported 5.65 GW of cells in July, a record low of the year. The shift in the regional export mix was far more pronounced than the change in total volume. The Asia-Pacific imported 2.39 GW, with its share falling further from around 56% in June to around 42%. Africa imported 1.83 GW, with its share rising to around 32%. The Americas imported 0.88 GW, expanding its share from almost zero in June to 16%. The Middle East imported 0.52 GW of Chinese cells, whilst Europe only sourced 0.03 GW.
The U.S. jumped to first place at around 0.88 GW, followed by Indonesia (0.81 GW), Kenya (0.70 GW), Nigeria (0.65 GW), and the Philippines (0.62 GW). Other markets included Turkey (0.43 GW), Ghana (0.27 GW), Uzbekistan (0.25 GW), while Malaysia rebounded from 0.03 GW to around 0.21 GW.
Three structural shifts to watch
1. Near-zero imports to Ethiopia and Djibouti directly constrained Africa’s assembly route.
Ethiopia’s cell imports fell from 0.33 GW in June to virtually zero in July (with a cumulative total of approximately 3.23 GW for the January–July period), while Djibouti’s imports dropped from 0.23 GW to zero.
This sudden halt aligns closely with the U.S. Department of Commerce’s administrative timeline. The Department initiated a nationwide anti-circumvention investigation on July 13, 2026, with a preliminary determination expected by December 10, 2026 (within 150 days of initiation) and a final determination by around May 10, 2027 (within 300 days of initiation), with any resulting duties potentially applying retroactively to the date of initiation. This retroactivity is the primary reason for the immediate suspension of shipments. Continuing shipments before the preliminary determination would effectively mean assuming contingent tariff liabilities that cannot be priced in advance.
2. Increases in Kenya and Nigeria signal a shift in assembly nodes within Africa.
Kenya’s import volume rose from 0.32 GW to 0.70 GW, up 120% MoM, whilst Nigeria’s climbed from 0.21 GW to 0.65 GW, up 217% MoM. The two markets combined recorded an approximately 0.83 GW MoM increase, almost entirely offsetting the declines seen in Ethiopia and Djibouti.
Overall, Africa imported approximately 13.41 GW of Chinese cells from January to July, more than ten times the 1.24 GW recorded a year earlier, bringing the volume of cell imports on par with that of modules in the same period (13.99 GW).
This cannot be attributed to local end-market demand. Instead, it reflects an ongoing shift of module assembly capacity. Notably, this relocation is occurring within the region rather than reverting to Southeast Asia, indicating that the logic of the “assemble in Africa, export to the U.S.” route has not broken down; rather, specific country nodes are being constrained. However, given the pace at which the U.S. has initiated trade cases over the past two years against the four Southeast Asian countries, India, Indonesia, Laos, Ethiopia, and South Korea, Kenya and Nigeria are also accumulating exposure to the next wave of anti-circumvention investigations as they absorb these volumes.
3. U.S. imports of Chinese cells returned to high levels, but the data should be viewed on a quarterly rather than a monthly basis.
The U.S. imported around 0.88 GW of Chinese cells in July, marking a significant recovery from the near-zero level in June. Two policy-related factors underpin this volume. First, Section 201 safeguard measures, which included a 12.5 GW tariff-free quota for cells, expired on February 7, 2026, meaning the quota cap no longer acts as a constraint. Second, domestic U.S. module assembly capacity remains substantially larger than domestic PV cell production capacity, necessitating imports to bridge the gap.
The most significant variable going forward stems from the U.S. announcement on August 6 to impose an additional 15% tariff on imported polysilicon and its derivatives under Section 232, alongside the establishment of minimum import prices (USD 21/kg for polysilicon, USD 100/kg for wafers, USD 0.22/W for cells, and USD 0.38/W for modules). Formal implementation is expected on December 4. When combined with existing Section 301 tariffs (currently 50%) and prevailing anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) orders, the aggregate tax burden on Chinese-origin PV derivative products could exceed 65%.
Given the gap between the August announcement and the December implementation, some market players rushed to place overseas orders for cells during this pre-implementation window. However, as of early September, InfoLink has observed that as stockpiling demand driven by Section 232 wanes, the previously high price quotes for cells in both China and Southeast Asia have retreated, and price premiums have narrowed significantly. Meanwhile, wafer and silver prices in China have weakened, while prices in non-China markets have also declined.
For India, China’s module export volumes remained low in July, and cell exports to the country showed no significant recovery. On July 18, India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) announced that the ALMM List-II requirement for cells would not be broadly deferred. However, it granted a limited exemption window, extending to the end of 2026, for net-metering and "Open Access" renewable energy projects. On July 22, the MNRE also issued the eighth revision to the ALMM List-II for cells. These developments indicate that India’s policy direction has not reversed and that only a grace period has been allowed for specific projects. Therefore, the export channel for Chinese cells to India remains constrained.
Policy and market developments in July
Overall, China's PV exports in July exhibited three key characteristics.
First, the rebound in module exports failed to sustain momentum, with the cumulative YoY growth rate turning negative. Monthly exports in July totaled approximately 15.23 GW, a decline from June. The cumulative volume for January through July fell by about 3% YoY, indicating that price renegotiations and inventory corrections following the cancellation of export tax rebates have not yet fully run their course.
Second, regional demand divergence deepened. Europe was still the primary driver and the Americas saw a slight recovery. The Asia-Pacific market cooled significantly after the conclusion of restocking in Pakistan. The Middle East and Africa continued to fluctuate at low levels.
Third, the route restructuring for cell exports has entered a phase of active compression. While the assessment in June pointed to a time gap between the closure of old routes and the establishment of new ones, data from July reveals that this gap has been compressed by the pace of U.S. case initiations. The Ethiopia route faced an investigation less than a year after its establishment, while Kenya and Nigeria absorbed significant volumes of exports during the month. For Chinese cell manufacturers, this implies a much faster change in customer composition than in the past. The effective operating window for each new node may be only 12 to 18 months. This will materially change the logic of order acceptance: payment term risk, prepayment ratios, and the reconfiguration of logistics routes will become more important than price competition alone.
