Date January 22, 2022
InfoLink Consulting was invited by Jinko Solar to talk at the 2022 Solar Technology and Market Outlook Conference on January 18. InfoLink’s senior analyst Derek Zhao attended the conference, explaining TOPCon cell production capacity and market share in 2022.

Production capacity could exceed 50 GW in 2022

Debates have been heated on which of TOPCon and HJT can succeed PERC to be the next-gen mainstream cell technology. With Jinko, Jolywood, Jietai, and Runergy announcing large-scale capacity expansion plans, TOPCon production capacity is expected to exceed 50 GW in 2022. Production capacity additions per year will increase by nearly 80 GW in 2030. In the short run, TOPCon has been in the lead.

Non-silicon costs of TOPCon cells have reduced to under RMB 0.3/W, still RMB 0.18-0.22/W higher but will gradually approach to that of PERC, Zhao said, as metallization costs decline, yield rates and efficiency improve, and, just like PERC, can be used to produce large format products.

During the conference, Zhao gave detailed introduction of current TOPCon process flows, comparing their pros and cons. The talk also dealt with the much-discussed question of whether n-type wafer supply can meet the surging demand from n-type cells, probing into the future of TOPCon technology.

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Derek Zhao Infolink
Derek Zhao
Senior Solar Analyst

Derek has 10+ years of experience in the PV industry. Prior to joining InfoLink Consulting, he served for Tier-1 solar equipment suppliers, BOM manufacturers, and vertically integrated companies, providing technical supports, as well as market, product, and technology management. Derek now serves as a senior analyst at PV InfoLink, division of InfoLink Consulting. His work primarily involves the analysis of technology routes across the PV supply chain, offering clients clear-cut, up-to-date insights of manufacturing technologies and advice on relevant strategies.


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