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Updated September 30, 2020

Polysilicon

Mono-Si wafer manufacturers have placed orders for polysilicon recently in preparation for full capacity utilization during China’s National Day holiday from Oct. 1-7. With mono-grade polysilicon orders having been signed before mid-October, major Chinese polysilicon producers are now filling orders. Not much trading is going on recently, so prices for mono-grade polysilicon remained constant from last week, with the trading prices staying at RMB 93-96/W and RMB 94/W in average. It seems that most mono-Si wafer makers have enough stocks until mid-October.

Bargaining and buyer/seller standoff are expected amid a new round of price negotiation after holiday ends. From a supply perspective, GCL’s lab in Xinjiang began to increase production output in October, with around 2,700 MT is expected, while Lesan-based Yongxiang reopened its older production lines, which is expected to produce 700 MT. With most mono-Si wafer makers operating at full capacity, supply of polysilicon is slightly short of demand.

Polysilicon supply for multi-Si wafers increases slightly as Chinese polysilicon producers resume operation and some multi-Si wafer makers will close during the holiday. As supply increases while demand declines, prices for multi-grade polysilicon trended downwardly this week, with the trading prices ranging from RMB 61-65/kg and RMB 63/kg in average. 

In foreign markets, the trading volume is low, as buyers are unwilling to purchase polysilicon at a high price and their stocks are adequate. This week saw little change in polysilicon prices compared with last week’s level, with mono-grade polysilicon priced at USD 10.2-10.7/kg and multi-grade polysilicon at USD 7.2-7.7/kg.
 

Wafer 

Mono-Si wafer prices hold ground due to stable mono-grade polysilicon prices in September, a balanced supply and demand of mono-Si products, and downstream customers’ preparation of stocks ahead of the National Day. Overall, with polysilicon prices remaining stable, mono-Si wafer giant Longi has kept its pricing unchanged for October, with the market prices for G1 and M6 respectively sitting at RMB 3.03-3.08/piece and RMB 3.18-3.23/piece in China.

Trading prices in overseas markets saw a marginally increase, with prices for G1 coming in at USD 0.395-0.400/piece and M6 at USD 0.414-0.419/piece. The Chinese pricings offered by Zhonghuan Solar, another leading mono-Si wafer manufacturer, are lower than Longi’s by RMB 0.05/piece for both G1 and M6, whereas prices for overseas markets are identical with that of Longi.

Multi-Si wafer prices showed little change this week as manufacturers were busy stocking up ahead of holiday and multi-grade polysilicon prices stay at a high level. The trading prices in China and overseas remained stable at RMB 1.55-1.65/piece and USD 0.203-0.215/piece, respectively. As demand from cell manufacturers slowed amid costs pressure and worsening COVID-19 outbreak in India, and multi-grade polysilicon prices started to decline this week, multi-Si wafer prices are unable to hold ground for the short term and a downward trend will become pronounced after the holiday. 
 

Cell 

Mono-Si cell prices remained pretty much unchanged as manufacturers are busy stocking up for the upcoming National Day holiday. While demand is shifting to M6, price decreases slowed for G1 as supply reduces after some capacities are switched to produce larger cells. The average prices declined marginally to RMB 0.85-0.86/W this week. This week also saw an increasingly distinguishment between Tier-1 and Tier-2 manufacturers, whose mainstream market prices came in at RMB 0.85-0.88/W and RMB 0.82-0.83/W, respectively.

As demand for M6 is strong in the second half and capacities have yet to fully come online, M6 cell prices remain stable, with the average price staying at RMB 0.93/W. Most orders for October were signed with prices above RMB 0.9/W. Price decreases in mono-Si cells will slow in October, when demand grows and supply remains modest. It’s expected that mono-Si cell prices may stay at a certain level in Q4.

While multi-Si wafer prices are stable now, the average prices for multi-Si cell prices hover at RMB 2.6–2.65/piece temporarily due to relatively high costs. As multi demand continues to shrink and multi-Si cell prices can no longer decrease, the ramifications of this development is penetrating upstream.
 

Module 

As the high season returns, overall demand in Q4 is higher than that in Q3 despite deferred demand caused by price hikes across the supply chain in Q3 in China and abroad. So, module prices will remain stable in the September-October period, with prices for utility-scale PV projects staying at RMB 1.58-1.6/W.

For the spot price, prices quoted recently vary in accordance to sales of module manufacturers in Q4; the quotes are mostly high, with modules based on M6 wafers being offered at as high as RMB 1.58-1.65/W. In overseas markets, prices seem to be stable for Q4 to Q1 2021 for now. The recent trading prices stayed at above USD 0.2/W, and the spot prices hovered around USD 0.22/W.

With the high season returning and the production capacity expansion for PV glass capacity falling behind that for modules, shortage of PV glass will persist until the end of this year. So, average price quotes for October’s orders for PV glass have significantly increased – from RMB 30/m2 to RMB 35/m2 for 3.2-mm coated glass; prices for some small orders are even quoted at RMB 36-37/m2. 2.0-mm coated glass rose from RMB 24/m2 for September to RMB 28/m2 for October, up by more than 15%. Despite the price surge, trading is still going on one after another due to supply shortage, and it’s expected that prices will continue to rise marginally for orders to be signed in early October.