Large-scale cell inventory lockups sustain prices; market awaits self-regulation outcome

Polysilicon

In recent weeks, policy signals and market rumors have prompted producers to announce preliminary self-regulation measures and production control plans. These initiatives aim to stabilize polysilicon prices and provide upward support across the supply chain. As a result, mainstream suppliers have raised spot quotes for mono-grade polysilicon to above RMB 65–67/kg, while granular polysilicon quotes have increased to around RMB 62/kg.

However, the newly raised polysilicon quotes have not been translated into actual transactions, given that downstream price hikes have yet to be materialized amid weak end-market demand. Deliveries this week continue to be dominated by earlier orders.

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-55/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 47-51/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

Tier-1 leading manufacturers have kept recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices firm at RMB 51–53/kg, while high-priced spot deals have seen lower transaction volumes.

Downstream manufacturers, constrained by elevated costs and price declines, have increased their procurement of non-mono-grade polysilicon in Q4.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, inventory and spot order prices come in at USD 15–16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon have held steady, while spot prices have shown signs of rising as buyers seek to hedge against policy-related risks. Nonetheless, purchasing conditions for U.S.-produced polysilicon remain stringent, and some orders under discussion have yet to be finalized.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Although manufacturers have reached a consensus on controlling output in 1Q26, the effectiveness will hinge on the actual implementation of production cuts.

As the first quarter is traditionally a seasonal low, transaction volumes are set to remain limited amid subdued demand. Manufacturers should be alerted to the risk of further inventory buildup during Q1.

Looking ahead, end-market demand is likely to gradually recover toward the end of 1Q26, which could support a pickup in transactions and help stabilize prices across the supply chain.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices this week are broadly on par with last week’s levels, with mainstream transaction prices showing no significant changes. Notably, most wafer makers have rolled out a new round of quotes starting December 16, generally at slightly higher levels than the earlier quotes. However, during the transition between previous and new prices, actual transaction volumes have remained limited. Some suppliers have opted to temporarily hold back shipments, positioning for potential price upside.

Quote increases this week have been largely sentiment-driven. On the upstream side, expectations for higher polysilicon prices have strengthened amid continued discussions around industry self-regulation. Although spot transactions have yet to reflect actual price increases, these expectations have nonetheless provided cost support for wafers. In addition, sustained increases in silver paste prices, together with recent broad-based price hikes in the cell segment, have improved the perceived justification for higher wafer quotes. Accordingly, the market generally expects new wafer quotes to gain some degree of acceptance in transactions.

By wafer format:

183N

•    Mainstream transactions: RMB 1.18/piece (flat)

•    Low-end transactions: Although RMB 1.15/piece were reported starting December 11, no actual deliveries were seen at the level this week.

•    Supplier behavior: Some manufacturers have locked inventories and held back shipments at the current higher quotes, indicating continued expectations for further price upside.

210RN

•    Mainstream transactions: RMB 1.20–1.23/piece (flat)

•    New quotes: Some suppliers have attempted to lift quotes to RMB 1.25/piece, but transactions have largely stayed within the previous range.

•    Shipment control: Some producers have begun to tighten shipment volumes by slowing their delivery pace.

210N

•    Mainstream transactions: RMB 1.50/piece (flat)

•    Price dispersion: Limited price divergence has suggested that this format continues to enjoy stronger support under the current supply–demand dynamics.

Market outlook:

•    Potential for another price adjustment: Wafer makers may consider another round of quote increases in the near term, but the outcome depends on downstream acceptance.

•    Low short-term downside risk: With production cuts gradually taking effect, alongside quota constraints and shipment control, the pace of inventory build-up has slowed.

•    As a result, a sharp near-term price drop seems unlikely.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices have all increased this week:

183N:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.3/W (up)

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.3/W

210RN:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.3/W (up)

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.3/W

210N:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.3/W (up)

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.3/W

Amid a sharp rise in silver prices, leading cell manufacturers lifted quotes for all three formats to RMB 0.30/W last week to cover cash costs, with only limited procurement from some integrated module makers. Tier-1 producers have suspended shipments for orders priced below RMB 0.30/W, prompting Tier-2 and Tier-3 players to follow suit and lock inventories. Excluding OEM orders, cell manufacturers have largely halted deliveries this week.

As of December 17, leading cell manufacturers have quoted prices at RMB 0.32/W or above across all formats. However, as these increases have yet to be passed through to the module segment, pricing sentiment between cells and modules has diverged amid concerns over weak end-market demand.

The extent to which module manufacturers will accept cost-driven cell price hikes remains unclear. Most cell producers are therefore awaiting the outcome of the self-regulation meeting on December 18 before providing further quotes.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China remains at USD 0.039/W this week; in China, price quotes have stayed at RMB 0.29/W.

Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and directly exported to the U.S. shipment volumes see steep reductions, with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China holds at USD 0.039/W this week. Amid higher prices in China, widespread shipment suspensions by cell manufacturers have triggered renegotiations and delivery delays, with prices expected to rise in line with China’s price trends. For higher-end Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., price quotes stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module prices in China

Driven by the sharp rise in silver paste prices, the cell segment has moved first to lock inventories and raise prices under mounting cost pressure, prompting the supply chain to prepare revised quotes. While module transaction prices have yet to rise broadly, some leading players have already updated their offers. Whether cell price increases can be passed through to the module segment will hinge on the ability to transfer cost pressures as well as the scale of production cuts across both segments.

On the demand side, year-end seasonality has led to softer market conditions. Deliveries in China are declining, new order visibility remains limited, and non-China markets have largely scaled back procurement ahead of the winter holiday season. Meanwhile, industry association price cap measures and polysilicon self-regulation initiatives continue to progress in an orderly manner.

TOPCon module prices in China:

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

HJT module prices:

•    Current prices for mainstream 715–720 W modules stand at RMB 0.71-0.73/W, and forthcoming public quotes are expected to align with this level.

•    Higher-power 720–740 W modules exhibit a wider price gap, with top-end prices reaching RMB 0.76-0.84/W.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Overall prices have remained unchanged at USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate. Rumor has it that late 2025 may see changes.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W, while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms, and companies have begun engaging testing agencies and law firms to prepare compliance documentation.