Wafer and cell prices hold firm; module quotes rise across the board

Polysilicon

While a preliminary framework for polysilicon manufacturers’ self-regulation has taken shape, weak downstream demand continues to hinder the pass-through of price increases. No transactions have been concluded at new prices this week, and several leading producers have adopted a wait-and-see approach and suspended quotes.

Recent deliveries continue to be dominated by earlier orders. Overall average prices this week: 

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-55/kg 

•    Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 47-51/kg 

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg 

Tier-1 leading manufacturers have kept recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices firm at RMB 51–53/kg, while high-priced spot deals have seen lower transaction volumes. Downstream manufacturers, constrained by elevated costs and price declines, have increased their procurement of non-mono-grade polysilicon in Q4.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, inventory and spot order prices come in at USD 15–16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon have held steady, while spot prices have shown signs of rising as buyers seek to hedge against policy-related risks. Nonetheless, purchasing conditions for U.S.-produced polysilicon remain stringent, and some orders under discussion have yet to be finalized.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Although manufacturers have reached a consensus on controlling output in 1Q26, the effectiveness will hinge on the actual implementation of production cuts. 

As the first quarter is traditionally a seasonal low, transaction volumes are set to remain limited amid subdued demand. Manufacturers should be alerted to the risk of further inventory buildup during Q1. 

Looking ahead, end-market demand is likely to gradually recover toward the end of 1Q26, which could support a pickup in transactions and help stabilize prices across the supply chain.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have risen sharply this week, posting a clear week-on-week increase. As industry self-regulation discussions continue to gain traction, wafer makers have broadly raised quotes. In addition, sustained increases in silver paste prices have pushed cell prices higher, indirectly supporting the rationale for higher wafer quotes. With most producers expecting further upside, shipment willingness remains low, and the market is generally adopting inventory control strategies.

By wafer format:

•    183N: The mainstream transaction prices remain at RMB 1.25/piece this week. While some low-priced transactions at RMB 1.23/piece are still observed, overall trading continues to center around RMB 1.25/piece. Notably, current shipment constraints stem less from weak downstream demand and more from sellers’ withholding supply amid expectations of further price increases, signaling a shift from passive destocking to proactive supply control.

•    210RN: Prices have risen significantly this week, with most transactions concluded at RMB 1.35/piece, marking a clear increase from last week. However, trading volumes remain limited due to expectations of further price increases. While some low-priced shipments have persisted, most producers are unwilling to move prices lower, keeping quotes firm and price expectations tilted upward.

•    210N: This format has maintained the lowest price dispersion among all formats this week. Despite limited trading volume, some deals are still delivering, with prices holding at RMB 1.55/piece.

Overall, continued momentum around industry self-regulation is likely to keep wafer prices firm in the near term. However, entering January, cell makers may face combined pressure from rising silver paste costs and weak end-market demand, raising the risk of utilization rate cuts. This could dampen wafer procurement and constrain the upside potential for wafer prices.

In addition, most wafer producers remain focused on whether polysilicon prices will rise as expected. With the latest round of quotes yet to see broad transaction volumes, future price trends remain subject to further observation. For next week, the possibility of further wafer price increases appears relatively high.
 

Cell in China

N-type cell price hikes have continued this week: 

•    183N:   

Average price: RMB 0.34/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0.32-0.34/W 

•    210RN:   

Average price: RMB 0.34/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0.31-0.34/W 

•    210N:   

Average price: RMB 0.34/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0.32-0.34/W

Following last week’s implementation of RMB 0.32/W quotes across all cell formats, cell makers have raised quotes again and tightened shipments through inventory withholding. This week, transaction prices have increased to RMB 0.34/W. As of December 24, Tier-1 cell makers have further held prices firm, generally offering new quotes above RMB 0.36/W across all formats.

Driven by industry self-regulation initiatives and mounting cost pressure from surging silver prices, cell manufacturers are actively pushing prices above production cost levels. However, it is important to note that these cell price increases have not yet been reflected in the module segment. Pricing sentiment between the cell and module segments remains sharply divided, and upstream–downstream price negotiations persist. As with last week, weak demand remains unresolved. Should cell price hikes fail to pass through to modules and end markets, the cell segment may face another round of large-scale production cuts in January 2026.
 

Cell in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

Driven by rising silver cost pressure, the average export price for 182P cells from China has increased to USD 0.041/W this week; in China, delivery prices have risen to RMB 0.32-0.33/W. Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and directly exported to the U.S. shipment volumes see steep reductions, with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has increased to USD 0.041/W this week. It is worth noting that although delivery prices outside China have edged up recently, many Chinese exporters have suspended shipments to overseas clients and reopened negotiations in order to lift prices. As a result, prices in USD are lagging behind prices in RMB, though further increases are expected to be in line with price trends in China. For higher-end Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., price quotes stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module in China

Following the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), leading module makers have broadly responded to industry self-regulation initiatives and gradually begun to raise module quotes. Current market feedback indicates that this round of price increases is generally at RMB 0.02–0.04/W.

As price-hike signals have become clearer, transactions in the distributed generation (DG) channel have moved up first. At present, Chinese mainstream DG module transaction prices are at RMB 0.68–0.71/W.

Meanwhile, the rapid rise in silver prices has placed significant cost pressure on the cell segment. Some cell makers have responded by holding back inventories and raising prices to pass through risks, further reinforcing price-increase expectations across the supply chain. So far, however, module prices have not fully reflected this cost pass-through. Whether higher cell prices can be effectively transmitted to the module segment will hinge on downstream acceptance and actual transaction follow-through, which remains to be closely monitored.

On the demand side, year-end seasonality has led to softer market conditions. Deliveries in China are declining, new order visibility remains limited, and non-China markets have largely scaled back procurement ahead of the winter holiday season.

TOPCon module prices in China: 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W 

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.71/W

In the HJT segment, average transaction prices have been revised again this week, rising to RMB 0.76/W, corresponding to mainstream HJT module power ratings of 720–725 W. Higher-power 730–740 W modules exhibit a wider price gap, with top-end prices reaching RMB 0.78-0.84/W.
 

Module in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific are mostly at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Overall prices have remained unchanged at USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate. Rumor has it that late 2025 may see changes.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W, while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms, and companies have begun engaging testing agencies and law firms to prepare compliance documentation.