Price support builds across the supply chain amid self-regulation signals

Polysilicon

Although recent news has been positive, industry self-regulation and production control measures remain undetermined(, providing limited support to the market. Consistent with last week, deliveries this week are primarily from Tier-1 makers and some previous orders from Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers, with order placement in December showing a clear divergence.

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-55/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 47-52/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

Tier-1 leading manufacturers have held recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices firm at RMB 51–53/kg, while high-priced spot deals have seen lower transaction volumes. Downstream weakness continues to put mild pressure on the lower-end price range. Signs of further slipping have emerged in new order negotiations, with some smaller-scale manufacturers offering prices near the bottom. Downstream manufacturers, constrained by elevated costs and price declines, have increased their procurement of non-monograde polysilicon in Q4.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, inventory and spot order prices come in at USD 15–16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon have held steady, while spot prices have shown signs of rising as buyers seek to hedge against policy-related risks. Nonetheless, purchasing conditions for U.S.-produced polysilicon remain stringent, and some orders under discussion have yet to be finalized.

Although the self-regulation measures have yet to be seen, short-term price cuts aimed at inventory depletion remain unlikely because most suppliers are still reluctant to sell below costs. As a result, prices for December orders stay in line with November levels.

Polysilicon inventories continue to rise as downstream procurement slows, with inventory at some individual producers now approaching 290,000 MT in stock. The persistent oversupply may be worse without improvement. Furthermore, production cuts in December have been limited, suggesting that inventory pressure will intensify through 1Q26.

As mentioned in the past few weeks, some mid- and small-scale manufacturers, unable to withstand heightened risks, are delivering at lower prices, with transactions now observed near RMB 50/kg.

It is worth noting that while manufacturers plan to resume production in 1Q26, some are weighing production cuts amid sluggish downstream demand, underscoring the increasingly divergent market outlook.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices show initial signs of stabilizing this week after a sustained decline, with mainstream transaction averages holding near last week’s levels. While some suppliers continue to post a wider range of low-end quotes, the overall price spread has narrowed, and sentiment has shifted from pessimism to caution. Stable polysilicon prices further underpin the market’s weakly steady pattern.

By wafer format:

•    183N: Mainstream price remains at RMB 1.18/piece. Although some deals were concluded at RMB 1.15/piece this week, these have not become mainstream.

•    210RN: Mainstream prices are at RMB 1.20–1.23/piece. Low-priced transactions at RMB 1.15–1.18/piece persisted, reflecting ongoing buyer pressure on costs. However, expectations of production cuts and indications of stockpiling have prompted some manufacturers to retract earlier low offers. Consequently, despite a wider transaction range this week, the price focus has shifted back to mainstream levels.

•    210N: Prices remain firm, with mainstream transactions holding at RMB 1.50/piece. The degree of market divergence is noticeably lower than in other formats, underscoring the stronger price support for this specification.

On the supply–demand side, wafer inventory accumulation has begun to slow as December production cuts take effect. However, the extent of voluntary production cuts and actual output control remains uncertain, and recent price volatility is largely tied to short-term restocking driven by meeting-related and stockpiling signals. Ahead of the next industry meeting, wafer prices are expected to remain in a narrow range. Next week should see mainly steady prices with some potential for a mild rebound, while the likelihood of a significant downward shift in mainstream prices remains low.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.28/W (down) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W 

210RN:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.275/W (flat) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.27-0.28/W 

210N:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.28/W (down) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W

This week, transaction prices for 183N and 210N cells have fallen, primarily due to gradual deliveries of last week’s lower-priced orders; price gap among manufacturers has widened, with both formats still seeing deals at RMB 0.285/W.

For 210RN cells, significant production cuts by leading manufacturers have provided price support. Some suppliers also raised their quotes to RMB 0.28–0.285/W this week. However, transaction prices remain split:

•    Tier-1 makers: mostly at RMB 0.275–0.28/W

•    Tier-2 and Tier-3 makers: still at RMB 0.27–0.275/W

Following substantial production cuts across the cell segment in December, the early-month proposals by some manufacturers to cut production to stabilize prices have yet to be materialized. The market remains in a state of price negotiation this week.

However, with silver prices continuing to rise, cell production costs are climbing further and are now approaching or even exceeding cash cost levels.

In the near term, cell prices are likely to hold steady and start building upward momentum.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China remains at USD 0.039/W this week; in China, price quotes have stayed at RMB 0.29/W.

Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and directly exported to the U.S. shipment volumes see steep reductions, with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China holds at USD 0.039/W this week. Production cuts in China align with weakening Indian demand, supporting short-term price stability.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., price quotes stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module prices in China

As the year draws to a close, market demand continues to be subdued. The volume of order deliveries is gradually declining, with visibility for new orders remaining limited.

Recent market focus has shifted to the industry association’s price cap policy and the progress of the proposed polysilicon stockpiling plan, both of which are still underway.

TOPCon module prices in China:

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700+ W high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.

HJT module prices:

•    Current prices for mainstream 715–720 W modules stand at RMB 0.71–0.76/W, and forthcoming public quotes are expected to align with this level.

•    Higher-power 720–740 W modules exhibit a wider price gap, with top-end prices reaching RMB 0.83–0.84/W.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate. Rumor has it that late 2025 may see changes.

BC module prices in Europe have also started dropping, with European producers reporting inventory pile-up for 640 W modules, resulting in a downward price trend.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W, while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.