Major manufacturers sealed long-term orders earlier this month. Prices for sporadic orders inch further, despite smaller order volume in recent terms. Trading prices range widely, coming in at RMB 292-310/kg and averaging RMB 294/kg.
Polysilicon prices rise evidently, given low real production volume this month and the manufacturing accident that directly causes losses in real production volume. Lines undergoing maintenance will resume production in August, albeit at a slower pace. Tight supply persists, despite new production lines incessantly coming online, pushing production output in August higher than in July. Another round of aggressive negotiations between buyers and sellers are expected in early August. Prices will stay elevated in the short term.
Investigation of InfoLink covers polysilicon prices at which orders have been delivered from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday and have been signed recently. We track mainstream prices and provide feedback for the industry. Therefore, changes and future price trend will gradually emerge during periods of higher order volume. Prices for sporadic orders are to be heeded.
From August onwards, mono-Si wafer prices will be posted based on 155μm of thickness in accordance with market trend.
Limited polysilicon supply crimps wafer production volume. The short supply keeps prices on an upward trend. Leading wafer manufacturers released new pricings later this month. On 21 July, Zhonghuan raised prices for 210mm wafers with a thickness of 155μm by RMB 0.38/piece to RMB 9.93/piece, a 4% increase. On 25 July, Longi announced to have adjusted the thickness of its p-type M10 wafers to 155μm, and prices upwardly by 4% to RMB 7.54/piece. Prices for p-type M6 cells with a thickness of 160μm are marked up by 4.1% to sit at RMB 6.33/piece.
Tier-2 and Tier-3 wafer manufacturers follow suit. Overall, mono-Si wafer prices increase. Upstream prices hold up, as wafer production volume fails to meet downstream demand in July. Future price trend hinges on cell, module utilization rates, and supply-demand condition that may affect market acceptance.
As wafers settle for 3-4% of price increases, leading cell manufacturers strike the first blow to raise prices on higher production costs, whilst the rest offer price quotes in the same fashion. Overall, price quotes sit at RMB 1.28/W for M6 and G12 cells, coming in at RMB 1.3/W for mainstream M10 cells.
Despite increased cell prices, Tier-1 module makers are still in a wait-and-see mode. Some of them purchase in small volumes through previous orders, long-term orders, and strategic partnerships. Meanwhile, Tier-2 module makers post stronger inventory draws.
Demand for M6 cells is scant. As a result, module makers are more likely to give in during price negotiations.
Cell prices rise in accordance with wafer price hikes this week. Trading prices for M6, M10, and G12 cells come in at RMB 1.28/W, RMB 1.29-1.3/W, and RMB 1.28/W, respectively.
M10 cell prices will advance next week, as trading prices and price quotes for which still see some differences for now, and given the unabating supply tightness. Presently, as cell prices limit up, more and more module makers suspend purchases. After businesses roll out internal sales plans and market strategies, possible changes in module utilization rates will affect the rising momentum of upstream prices.
Module price trend is little changed, with the low-price range slightly up, as more projects are stuck in a state of inertia. Glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at RMB 1.92-2.05/W (inland transport costs excluded), and their glass-glass counterparts at RMB 1.93-2.05/W (inland transport costs excluded). Most deliveries at the low-price range of RMB 1.9-1.93/W are mid and small-scale makers delivering previous inventories.
Module makers and end users are locked in stand-off throughout the month. Only few new orders for glass-backsheet modules are delivered at RMB 1.95/W for utility-scale ground-mounted projects. Most module makers deliver orders previously signed at RMB 1.92-1.93/W. As for distributed projects, the increase of delivering prices slows down. This week, mainstream delivering prices for glass-backsheet modules come in at RMB 1.97-2.05/W. Price quotes mounted by RMB 0.01-0.02/W in tandem with supply chain prices.
Prices stabilize in overseas markets. The Asia-Pacific region sees prices rise marginally, coming in at USD 0.267-0.275/W (FOB). In Australia, prices stay at last week’s level, sitting at USD 0.28-0.285/W. In the U.S., prices sustain at USD 0.33-0.38/W, and USD 0.55-0.58/W for locally made modules.
In Europe, glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at USD 0.265-0.285/W, and USD 0.285-0.29/W on the spot market. Price quotes for new orders in August continue increasing but may lose momentum in the future. The European market appears rather reserved. Future price trend hinges on the outcome of seller-buyer negotiations.
N-type cell and module
The market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. G12 HJT modules are expected to be available by the end of the third quarter. We will decide whether we should post the spot price of G12 HJT products in the fourth quarter of the year, considering mass production activities of all manufacturers.
N-type cells are set to be more expansive due to higher production costs. However, most cell manufacturers are delivering previously signed orders this week, as prices are still subject to change, sustaining at RMB 1.36-1.45/W for M6 HJT cells.
M10 and G12 TOPCon cells have not seen much trading by far, mostly purchased for in-house capacities, with prices coming in at RMB 1.3-1.37/W for the time being.
Module prices temporarily sustain this week, coming in at RMB 2.15-2.2/W for M6 HJT modules, and USD 0.285-0.33/W in overseas markets.
M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 2.06-2.11/W for monofacial ones, RMB 2.09-2.15/W for bifacial ones, and around USD 0.28-0.31/W in overseas markets.