Wafer prices slide further while cells prepare to hold the line

Polysilicon

In the first week of December, most orders remain under negotiation. Consistent with last week, deliveries this week are primarily from Tier-1 makers and some previous orders from Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers, with order placement in December showing a clear divergence.

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-55/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 47-52/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

Tier-1 leading manufacturers have held recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices firm at RMB 51–53/kg, while high-priced spot deals have seen lower transaction volumes. Downstream weakness continues to put mild pressure on the lower-end price range. Signs of further slipping have emerged in new order negotiations, with some smaller-scale manufacturers offering prices near the bottom. 

While the average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, inventory and spot order prices come in at USD 15–16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon have held steady, while spot prices have shown signs of rising as buyers seek to hedge against policy-related risks. Nonetheless, purchasing conditions for U.S.-produced polysilicon remain stringent, and some orders under discussion have yet to be finalized.

Although the impact of China’s anti–price war stockpiling policies has yet to be seen, short-term price cuts aimed at inventory depletion remain unlikely because most suppliers are still reluctant to sell below costs. As a result, prices for December orders stay in line with November levels.

Polysilicon inventories continue to rise as downstream procurement slows, with inventory at some individual producers now approaching 290,000 MT in stock. The persistent oversupply may be worse without improvement. Furthermore, production cuts in December have been limited, suggesting that inventory pressure will intensify through 1Q26.

As mentioned in the past few weeks, some mid- and small-scale manufacturers, unable to withstand heightened risks, are delivering at lower prices, with transactions now observed near RMB 50/kg.

It is worth noting that while manufacturers plan to resume production in 1Q26, some are weighing production cuts amid sluggish downstream demand, underscoring the increasingly divergent market outlook.
 

Wafer

Wafer price declines continue this week. Although higher-priced orders reflect firm contract prices, trading volumes at these levels remain low. With inventories still piling up, the market has yet to show any meaningful signs of price stabilization.

Market sentiment has shifted from caution in prior weeks to closely monitoring whether the announced December production cuts in the ingot segment will be sufficient to ease supply–demand imbalance. As multiple ingot makers have now released clearer cutback plans, the overall utilization rate is widely expected to drop sharply.

Further production cuts may provide some price support; nevertheless, whether the support can stabilize market conditions still hinges on end-market demand recovery. 

By wafer format:

183N

•    Mainstream price: RMB 1.18/piece

•    Low-end transactions: down to RMB 1.15/piece

•    Buyers have started pushing for even lower prices, though these levels have not yet resulted in firm transactions and therefore lack reference value. If demand remains weak, further price dip cannot be ruled out next week. However, as production cuts gradually take effect, near-term price stabilization remains likely.

210RN

•    Mainstream price: RMB 1.23/piece

•    Direct procurement: as low as RMB 1.18/piece

•    Some manufacturers have reduced inventory via low-priced deals toward month-end.

210N

•    Mainstream price: RMB 1.50/piece

•    Low-end transactions: down to RMB 1.48/piece

•    With year-end project demand diminishing, prices may continue fluctuating at low levels in the short term, though ongoing production adjustments may help temper further declines.

Despite the gradual implementation of production cuts on the wafer side, downstream demand remains subdued, making it difficult for the supply–demand imbalance to improve significantly in the near term. Given ongoing negotiations involving lower bid prices, wafer prices may face downward pressure next week.

Over the longer term, whether prices can stabilize will depend on:

•    The actual extent of production cuts

•    The pace of inventory depletion

•    The degree of demand-side pull
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week: 

183N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (flat)

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.29/W

210RN: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.275/W (flat)

•    Price range: RMB 0.27-0.275/W

210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (flat)

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W

Led by top manufacturers, the cell segment has initiated large-scale production cuts this month, with 210RN output share declining notably. Some producers are attempting to hold prices at RMB 0.285/W this week, but no deals have been concluded at this level.

Overall, despite significant production cuts on the cell side, persistent weak demand and market volatility may still lead some manufacturers to reduce production even further. With sentiment largely cautious, price trends will depend on upstream–downstream negotiations, and cell prices are expected to hold steady in the near term.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week; in China, price quotes have stayed at RMB 0.29-0.295/W. Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and directly exported to the U.S. Shipments remain limited, with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

The average export price for 183N cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week. Production cuts in China align with weakening Indian demand, supporting short-term price stability.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., prices stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module prices in China

As the year draws to a close, market demand continues to be subdued. The volume of order deliveries is gradually declining, with visibility for new orders remaining limited. Upstream, prices have dipped again this week, and module prices have also started to slip toward year-end. The high-price range has declined this week, with overall transaction prices gradually narrowing. Recent market focus has shifted to the industry association’s price cap policy and the progress of the proposed polysilicon stockpiling plan, both of which are still underway.

TOPCon module prices in China:

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700+ W high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.

HJT module prices:

Current prices for mainstream 715–720 W modules stand at RMB 0.71–0.76/W, and forthcoming public quotes are expected to align with this level. Higher-power 720–740 W modules exhibit a wider price gap, with top-end prices reaching RMB 0.83–0.84/W.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate. Rumor has it that late 2025 may see changes.

BC module prices in Europe have also started dropping, with European manufacturers reporting inventory pile-up for 640 W modules, resulting in a downward price trend.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.