G12R cell prices rise with modules for distributed projects set to follow

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices hold steady this week.

China-made polysilicon chunks:

• Spot prices sit at RMB 37-43/kg.

• Major manufacturers deliver at RMB 40-42/kg.

• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers deliver at RMB 39-40/kg.

• Some manufacturers aim to raise prices to RMB 43/kg, but the market acceptance remains unclear.

China-made granular polysilicon:

• Primarily supplied by major manufacturers, priced at RMB 37-39/kg.

• Mid- and lower-tier manufacturers are still negotiating new orders.

• February orders: Mostly fulfilling previous agreements with new orders gradually being settled. However, the trading volume of new orders remains low.

• Manufacturers are cautious about demand in March and April and are worried about a potential price drop in the supply chain after the current installation rush ends.

• Polysilicon producers are strategizing accordingly, and production schedules must be closely monitored.

• Polysilicon production remains steady but at a slightly reduced capacity, reflecting cautious demand outlooks.

• Shipments are flat, but inventory depletion is slower, indicating sluggish end-user demand.
   

Wafer

Wafer prices stay flat this week.

P-type wafer trading prices this week:

• M10: RMB 1.1-1.15/piece (stay still)

• G12: RMB 1.7/piece (stay still)

As p-type wafers have become customized products, demand in China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

N-type wafer trading prices this week: 

• M10 183N: RMB 1.18/piece (stay still)

• G12R: RMB 1.3/piece (stay still)

• G12N: RMB 1.55/piece (stay still)

Reportedly, some manufacturers are considering raising price for March.

Price expectations:

• 183N wafers: RMB 1.2/piece

• 210RN wafers: RMB 1.35/piece

These adjustments are linked to slight rebounds in both cell and module prices. Transactions at these price levels may materialize as early as next week.
 

Cell

P-type cell prices this week:

M10:

• Average price: Stable at RMB 0.33/W

• High price: Decreased to RMB 0.34/W

• Price range: RMB 0.32-0.34/W

High p-type cell prices are driven by strong non-China demand. However, prices may slip as demand falls after India's fiscal year-end installation surge concludes in late March.

N-type cell prices this week:

M10:

• Average price: Stable at RMB 0.29/W

• Price range: RMB 0.285-0.295/W

G12:

• Average price: Stable at RMB 0.295/W

• Price range: RMB 0.29-0.295/W

G12R:

• Average price: Increased to RMB 0.29/W

• High price: Increased to RMB 0.295/W

• Price range: RMB 0.28-0.295/W

Reasons for price hikes:

• Short-term supply-demand imbalance due to rising end-user demand before the implementation of China’s May 31 New Policy.

• Higher production ratio of G12R modules has been set for March, affecting delivery cycles between module and cell manufacturers.

Price Details:

• Most trading prices land at RMB 0.29-0.295/W.

• Price hikes are mainly seen among leading manufacturers.

• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers have sustained prices this week.

N-type cell price outlook for March:

Upward price forecast due to:

• Planned price hikes for wafers in the coming weeks.

• Anticipated price hikes by cell manufacturers to offset rising costs.

• Clearer module orders leading to stronger demand.

Prices will likely increase in March but WILL hinge on supply-demand dynamics for each format.
 

Module

Module prices this week show price hikes for distributed projects:

• Driven by rush installations due to the upcoming China’s May 31 New Policy deadline, especially in C&I distributed projects.

• Spot prices increased to RMB 0.65-0.7/W, with an upward trend towards RMB 0.7-0.72/W.

• Price implementation is still under observation.

Ground-mounted projects:

• New order volumes are limited, given the 2-month window before the policy deadline.

• New order prices have slightly increased by RMB 0.01-0.02/W, with more deals now at RMB 0.65-0.67/W.

• Cost increases have pressured manufacturers, making low-price deliveries (RMB 0.6-0.65/W) unsustainable.

• Since late February, manufacturers have been reducing or pausing deliveries of low-price orders. They are negotiating with end users for revised prices and delivery terms, with talks expected to conclude in March.

• However, given limited end-user acceptance, price increases may be modest, rising by RMB 0.01-0.02/W.
   

Module prices this week: 

TOPCon: 

• Delivery prices: RMB 0.62-0.72/W 

• Lower-price range (RMB 0.62-0.65/W) has significantly narrowed.

• Average price: Has rose to RMB 0.67-0.7/W

182mm PERC glass-glass: 

• RMB 0.60–0.68/W 

• RMB 0.72-0.85/W 

• Lower-price range has slightly increased by RMB 0.01-0.02/W. 

N-TBC: 

• RMB 0.69–0.78/W

Non-China module prices stabilize this week: 

• TOPCon: USD 0.085-0.09/W 

• HJT: USD 0.09-0.11/W 

• PERC: USD 0.065-0.08/W

Short-term price rises are being discussed due to:

• Manufacturers' cautious production schedules in recent months

• Tight deliveries for popular formats
   

TOPCon module prices by region:  

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon. 

Reportedly, Pakistan may impose an import duty starting mid-2025, resulting in rising price quotes. However, the final prices will hinge on official confirmation.

Modules are delivered at USD 0.09/W in Australia. The overall futures delivery price in Europe remains at USD 0.088-0.092/W. Negotiations for H2 prices are ongoing, and ground-mounted project prices will likely rise from the previous level of USD 0.08-0.083/W to USD 0.085/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.085-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with previous orders delivered at USD 0.09-0.095/W.

US market prices are impacted by policy changes, leading to weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders keep falling and are likely to drop further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes sit at USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.20/W.