Pessimistic December demand outlook prompts supply-chain production cuts

Polysilicon

Deliveries this week are primarily from Tier-1 makers and some previous orders from Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers, with order placement in December showing a clear divergence.

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-55/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 47-52/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

Tier-1 leading manufacturers have held recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices firm at RMB 51–53/kg, while high-priced spot deals have seen lower volumes. Downstream weakness continues to put mild pressure on the lower-end price range.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, inventory and spot order prices come in at USD 15–16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for domestic U.S. polysilicon hold steady, while spot prices have shown signs of rising as buyers seek to hedge against policy-related risks.

In China, discussions on the implementation of anti-price war stockpiling policies are still underway, with concrete guidelines pending. Polysilicon inventories are increasing as downstream procurement slows. Overall oversupply persists without improvement, even with signs of further deterioration. Tier-1 makers have a higher tolerance for inventory levels and remain committed to sustaining prices in line with the policy, making near-term price-cutting for inventory clearance unlikely. Prices for December orders remain in line with November levels. 

However, some mid- and small-scale producers, facing heightened risks, continue to deliver deals at lower prices. It is worth noting that while manufacturers plan to resume production in 1Q26, some are weighing production cuts amid weak downstream demand, underscoring the increasingly divergent market outlook.
 

Wafer

The wafer market remains weak this week, with prices across all formats continuing to decline since last Thursday. Although some offers are now below mainstream averages, low transaction volumes and the lack of contract-based deals mean these prices have yet to form a reliable range. Market sentiment remains largely wait-and-see.

By wafer format:

•    183N: Since last Thursday, quotes have fallen further, pushing the mainstream average down to RMB 1.20/piece. Few lower-priced offers have surfaced, but these remain case-specific and are not reflected in contract pricing. With demand subdued, transactions at this level are limited this week, and price support remains under pressure.

•    210RN: This week, prices stand at RMB 1.20–1.25/piece. Leading manufacturers continue to hold quotes at high levels, yet actual transaction prices have trended lower, with some buyers securing more flexible terms in negotiations. Still, low-end transactions remain limited. The market shows a wide price band but limited effective transactions, underscoring the cautious sentiment on both the seller and buyer sides.

•    210N: While this format remains relatively better supported, its transaction prices have slipped to RMB 1.53–1.55/piece. With year-end project procurement tapering off and wafer inventories remaining high, some manufacturers are testing lower price levels, but market acceptance is limited, resulting in subdued trading activity this week.

Overall, end-demand remains weak, and uncertainty around potential polysilicon stockpiling continues to cap any near-term rebound in wafer prices. Manufacturers generally expect a sharp reduction in ingot production in December; if these cuts materialize, they may provide some price support. In the short term, wafer prices still face downside risk next week and may remain in a low, volatile range. Subsequent trends will hinge on the extent of production cuts, policy developments, and the pace of demand recovery.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week: 

183N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (down) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.29/W 

210RN: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.275/W (down) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.27-0.275/W 

210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (down) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W

Cell price declines persist this week amid sluggish demand.

Looking ahead, cell price outlook remains under pressure. While leading manufacturers have initiated large-scale production cuts for December and some cell makers are following suit, most producers are still formulating their strategies. Initial assessments indicate that the scale of planned reductions in the cell segment will be insufficient to fundamentally resolve the current oversupply. With market expectations for December demand remaining subdued, cell prices are likely to stabilize at best in the near term.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week; in China, price quotes have stayed at RMB 0.29-0.295/W. Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

The average export price for 183N cells from China has slipped further to USD 0.039/W this week. India’s procurement demand has weakened noticeably, confirming that price peaks have passed.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.

With the release of preliminary AD/CVD rates on Indonesia and Laos approaching and reciprocal tariff measures in effect, many cell makers in these countries have shifted exports toward India. Direct cell shipments to the U.S. have dropped significantly.
 

Module prices in China

As the year draws to a close, market demand continues to be subdued. The volume of order deliveries is gradually declining, with visibility for new orders remaining limited. Upstream, prices have dipped again this week, and module prices have also started to slip toward year-end. Although some Chinese local project prices have seen rises, feedback suggests that these increases have yet to translate into higher delivery prices. Recent market focus has shifted to the industry association’s price cap policy and the progress of the proposed polysilicon stockpiling plan, both of which are still underway.

TOPCon module prices in China:

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700+ W high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.

Given recent price corrections, HJT module prices fell back to around RMB 0.78/W last week. Current prices for mainstream 715–720 W modules stand at RMB 0.71–0.76/W, and forthcoming public quotes are expected to align with this level. Higher-power 720–740 W modules exhibit a wider price gap, with top-end prices reaching RMB 0.83–0.84/W.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate. Rumor has it that late 2025 may see changes.

BC module prices in Europe have also started dropping, with European manufacturers reporting inventory pile-up for 640 W modules, resulting in a downward price trend.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.