Prices to see more evident drop after May 1

1. In India, domestically produced modules will be changed to TOPCon products, and the export price from China will be removed.

2. In the U.S., the public pricing for PERC modules will be cancelled, and the pricing for domestically produced TOPCon modules will be added.

3. In Europe, the public pricing for PERC modules will be cancelled.
 

Polysilicon

This week, spot market transactions for polysilicon have been low, with most manufacturers waiting until after International Workers’ Day. Prices for polysilicon chunks stay flat but price range is starting to move down. Leading manufacturers in China are trying to stabilize prices and slow the decline. However, weak demand and existing inventory levels at ingot manufacturers result in buyers offering RMB 36–37/kg, below the sellers’ quote of RMB 39–40/kg. No deals have been settled yet this week.China-made granular polysilicon is mainly from major suppliers, with small volumes traded this week. Due to weak market conditions, prices dropped to RMB 35–37/kg. With end-market demand slowing, manufacturers expect to slightly reduce production in May.In recent months, US policy changes have disrupted polysilicon shipments, leading to a wait-and-see sentiment in manufacturing, cautious downstream buying, and a slip in average prices to USD 19/kg.

Prices are falling due to weaker demand, while ingot manufacturers still hold enough stock for 1-1.5 months. Their short-term strategy focuses on using up inventory to gain leverage in April-May, the same as reported last week. Smaller firms with limited stock will have a small number of deals by late April but will not affect overall average prices. Large transactions still depend on major players' negotiations and are likely to be settled in early May.

In May, low electricity prices during the hydropower season may lead some producers to resume part of their previously idled capacity. But with weak demand and polysilicon makers’ high inventory level, most plan is to keep production steady. Some may cut production or start maintenance early, so overall production is likely to dip slightly.
 

Wafer

With weak demand and falling cell prices, wafer prices continue to decline. Mainstream specifications have seen further price drops, and market sentiment remains subdued.

Prices for most specifications have dropped:

•    183N: RMB 1.05/piece

•    210RN: RMB 1.18/piece

•    210N: RMB 1.38/piece

This week, wafer buyers and sellers continue their tough negotiations. Some buyers delay orders or push prices down to lower purchase costs. For 183N wafers, mainstream prices drop to RMB 1.05/piece, with some deals as low as RMB 1–1.02/piece, showing a clear downward shift. For 210RN, most deals are within RMB 1.15–1.2/piece, but the mainstream price is now RMB 1.18/piece, with some manufacturers negotiating and closing deals at RMB 1.15/piece. More low-priced deals are expected soon. 210N prices fall from RMB 1.5/piece to 1.38/piece, with some quotes even hitting RMB 1.35/piece, showing continued weakness. P-type wafer prices have stayed stable at RMB 1.05–1.2/piece, though Chinese are deals mostly settled at the lower end due to weak demand.

With the International Workers’ Day holiday approaching, most manufacturers have cut May production plans. If cell prices keep falling after the holiday, wafer prices may drop further and affect production. The market faces both high inventory levels and costs exceeding prices. In the short term, wafer prices are expected to stay weak.
 

Cell

P-type (182P) cell prices this week: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.29/W (slipped) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.295/W (sustained) 

China’s demand for p-type cells is primarily for small, scattered orders, with overall order volume sharply shrinking. Most of the current production is now being shipped to non-China markets, and significant price fluctuations are unlikely in the short term.

N-type cell prices of all formats dropped this week: 

183N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.27/W 

•    Price range: RMB 0.265-0.28/W 

210RN: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.275/W 

•    Price range: RMB 0.27-0.28/W 

210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W 

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.29/W

Cell production in April is higher than in other sectors, causing prices to sharply collapse as downstream demand weakens. Manufacturers initially expected that a significant MoM reduction in May production would bring a market recovery. However, InfoLink’s research shows that only a few manufacturers have clear production cuts for May, while most are still taking a wait-and-see approach and maintaining output at April levels.

Cell production cuts for May are weaker than expected. Even though current prices have fallen below the average cost line, the severe supply-demand imbalance suggests that prices may further drop. If production levels do not adjust after the holiday, prices could still fall back to the lows seen in the second half of 2024, potentially dragging down wafer prices.
 

China Module

Module prices now stabilize around RMB 0.70/W before the International Workers’ Day, but the decline has accelerated faster than expected. Some major manufacturers have cut prices by RMB 0.02–0.03/W, reigniting price competition. Ground-mounted projects average RMB 0.67–0.69/W this week. For distributed generation projects, shrinking demand has pushed average prices down to RMB 0.68–0.71/W, with many new May orders even signed at RMB 0.65–0.67/W. Some manufacturers have reportedly started cutting prices by RMB 0.01/W weekly, reflecting faster price reductions and implying poor demand expectations for May and June.

Module production in May is likely to decline. Many low-price orders signed earlier are now being renegotiated, with discussions around delivery delays or bundled shipments. Some manufacturers have reduced production by 0.5–1 GW. The sluggish market may persist into June or July, depending on how demand unfolds.

Module prices this week:

182mm PERC glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.62–0.70/W (sustained)

HJT:

•    RMB 0.72-0.85/W 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.72-0.74/W

BC:

•    N-TBC: RMB 0.75-0.80/W (new orders for distributed projects) 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.74-0.78/W (fewer deliveries due to high prices)
 

Non-China Module

Non-China module prices remain mostly stable this week:

•    TOPCon: USD 0.08- 0.095/W

•    HJT: USD 0.095-0.12/W

•    PERC: USD 0.07-0.08/W

•    N-TBC: USD 0.10-0.11/W

TOPCon module prices by region:  

• Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W. In India, modules made with Chinese cells and assembled locally are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have recently begun sourcing cells from Southeast Asia.

2.    Modules are delivered at around USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices for distribution-based and distributed projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W.

• Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with reduction in recent and future orders, leading to signs of price decline. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.08-0.085/W.  

• Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. In the Brazilian market, two pricing ranges are observed to coexist.

• Middle East:

Prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W for bulk procurement, while earlier high-priced locked-in orders are still being executed at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

• The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. tariff policies, suppliers and project developers are actively negotiating new quotes. Current trading prices have slightly increased, approaching USD 0.27–0.30/W. Considering trade risks, price quotes for locally manufactured modules are also trending upward, with prices above USD 0.40/W gradually becoming more common.