Wafer and cell price declines persist

Polysilicon

Deliveries this week are primarily from Tier-1 makers and some previous orders from Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers. Some negotiations for new orders are ongoing but have yet to be finalized.

Overall average prices this week:  

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-55/kg  

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 47-52/kg  

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

Tier-1 leading manufacturers have held recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices firm at RMB 51–53/kg, while high-priced spot deals have seen lower volumes. Downstream weakness continues to put mild pressure on the lower-end price range.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, inventory and spot order prices come in at USD 15–16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for domestic U.S. polysilicon hold steady, while spot prices have shown signs of rising as buyers seek to hedge against policy-related risks.

In China, discussions on the implementation of anti-price war stockpiling policies are still underway, with concrete guidelines pending. Polysilicon inventories are increasing as downstream procurement slows. Overall oversupply persists without improvement, even with signs of further deterioration. Whether conditions will stabilize hinge on actual production cuts in November. Tier-1 makers have higher tolerance for inventory levels and remain committed to sustaining prices in line with the policy, making near-term price-cutting for inventory clearance unlikely. However, some mid- and small-scale producers, facing heightened risks, continue to deliver deals at lower prices.

Polysilicon prices in November are expected to stay largely flat; minor slips in the low-end price range remain possible.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices continue to decline this week, extending last week’s trend. Under subdued demand and mounting inventory pressure, mainstream average prices of all wafer formats have moved lower once again. Although Tier-1 wafer makers are holding quotes firm, transaction prices have clearly shifted downward. Most quotes have yet to be finalized, as cell makers remain cautious with low purchasing willingness.

By wafer format:

•    183N: Mainstream average price has fallen to RMB 1.28/piece, with some deals negotiated to conclude at RMB 1.25/piece. Prices below RMB 1.25/piece are mostly attributed to non-prime A-grade material or stock held by traders. Given weak demand and inventory overhang, price support continues to erode, leaving further downside risks.

•    210RN: Prices are now converging with those of 183N, with mainstream levels also at RMB 1.28/piece. Transaction prices have continued to trend down early this week, though Tier-1 manufacturers maintained firm quotes at RMB 1.30/piece, resulting in a market characterized by “firm quotes but weak transactions.” Some manufacturers have offered discounts to stimulate shipments, widening the gap between quotes and transaction prices.

•    210N: This format remains relatively supported compared with others. Mainstream transaction prices hold at RMB 1.60/piece, though the prevailing average price has continued to decrease. With year-end China’s project procurement tapering and cell makers carrying high inventories, buying momentum remains constrained and market pressure persists.

With prevalent buyer caution and no new positive policy catalysts, many wafer makers have started cutting production. Even though leading manufacturers have sustained prices, underlying supply–demand dynamics remain weak with limited signs of short-term improvement. Wafer prices are set to face further downside risk and fluctuate at low levels next week.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:

•    Average price: RMB 0.295/W (down)

•    Price range: RMB 0.29-0.30/W

210RN:

•    Average price: RMB 0.28/W (flat)

•    Price range: RMB 0.275-0.28/W

210N:

•    Average price: RMB 0.29/W (down)

•    Price range: RMB 0.29-0.295/W

This week, prices have declined across all formats. 183N prices have softened on weaker Indian demand. 210RN’s average price holds steady, but sluggish orders have led to gradual deliveries of last week’s low-priced deals at RMB 0.275/W. In line with prior expectations, 210N prices continue to fall amid subdued Q4 demand from utility-scale projects.

Looking ahead, efforts to stabilize wafer prices and rising silver costs have pushed some cell manufacturers into negative cash flow. Although a major producer announced production cuts in mid-November, most specialized cell makers have not followed suit. 

With production cuts still trailing the pace of demand decline, prices are expected to stay weak until broader output reductions occur, and inventories are substantially drawn down.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:  

The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week; in China, price quotes have stayed at RMB 0.29-0.295/W. Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has slipped to USD 0.040/W this week. Procurement demand in the Indian market has been exhausted earlier than expected, keeping China’s export prices likely to hold steady at best.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.

As mentioned last week, with the release of preliminary AD/CVD rates on Indonesia and Laos approaching and reciprocal tariff measures in effect, many cell makers in these countries have shifted exports toward India. Direct cell shipments to the U.S. have dropped significantly.
 

Module prices in China

As the year draws to a close, market demand continues to be subdued. The volume of order deliveries is gradually declining, with visibility for new orders remaining limited. Following recent price drops in upstream wafers and cells, module prices have also begun to slip, with signs of a downward trend emerging.

Recent market focus has shifted to the industry association’s price cap policy and the progress of the proposed polysilicon stockpiling plan, both of which are still underway.

TOPCon module prices in China:

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700+ W high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate. Rumor has it that late 2025 may see changes.

BC module prices in Europe have also started to decline, with European manufacturers reporting inventory pile-up for 640 W modules, resulting in a downward price trend.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.