Wafer prices shift lower amid ongoing market standoff

Polysilicon

Transaction activity this week remains similar to last week, driven mainly by Tier-1 makers and previous contracts from some Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers. The continued decline in wafer and cell prices has led to a wait-and-see sentiment among buyers, resulting in no new ordersbeing signed this week.

Overall average prices this week: 

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-55/kg 

• Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 47-52/kg 

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

Tier-1 leading manufacturers have held recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices firm at RMB 51–53/kg, while some small-volume spot deals are still concluded at RMB 54-55/kg. Downstream weakness continues to put mild pressure on the lower-end price range.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 17-18/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The Section 232 investigation has prompted many producers to consider securing more non-Chinese polysilicon supply during the current window period. Due to rising risk factors, spot prices for U.S.-origin materials have shown an upward trend.

In China, discussions on the implementation of anti-price war stockpiling policies are still underway, with recent news generally viewed as supportive. However, as the policy framework remains under review and detailed guidelines are yet to be released, its short-term impact on price recovery appears limited. While a few manufacturers have secured long-term supply contracts through the end of December to mitigate potential risks, these cases remain limited. The majority of market participants continue to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach.

For now, market dynamics remain largely dictated by end-market demand. Polysilicon inventories continue to climb as downstream procurement slows, and the oversupply has yet to improve, with signs of further strain. Whether conditions stabilize will hinge on actual production cuts in November. Prices remain steady for now mainly because manufacturers are more tolerant of inventory accumulation and facing pressure to avoid price competition, making near-term clearance sales unlikely. Overall, polysilicon prices are expected to hold steady in November, with limited room for slight softening at the low end.
 

Wafer

As anticipated, wafer prices continue to decline this week. Last week’s lower price range has become the mainstream transaction level and continued to edge down in recent days, reflecting weak supply–demand dynamics and persistent downward pricing pressure.

By wafer format:

• 183N: Low-priced deals at RMB 1.25/piece have emerged this week. Although volumes are limited, they further lowered overall prices. With some quotes dropping below RMB 1.33/piece since last Thursday, the mainstream price has fallen to RMB 1.30/piece this week, and few transactions have reached RMB 1.25/piece, leaving the market with little effective price support.

• 210RN: Prices remain under pressure, with low-priced trades occurring frequently. Weak supply–demand conditions and cautious cell-side procurement continue to drive fragmented and volatile pricing. Although the market often reports transactions at RMB 1.25/piece, verified mainstream prices still hold at RMB 1.28–1.30/piece, with some discounted bulk deals occasionally reaching RMB 1.28/piece. Nonetheless, leading manufacturers are upholding a firm pricing stance, keeping the market in a prolonged stalemate.

• 210N: Continuing last week’s softening trend, prices are at the RMB 1.60–1.65/piece. With leading manufacturers scaling back stocking for ground-mounted projects, transactions at RMB 1.60/piece have emerged, shifting the average price downward to RMB 1.63/piece. As major producers issue new, lower quotes, price expectations have further declined.

Overall, buyers and sellers remain in a pricing standoff, and transaction activity is subdued. Wafer producers generally report slow shipments and indicate plans to adjust and reduce production. Although lower prices have sparked interest from some cell makers, high inventory levels continue to limit procurement. Wafer prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate at low levels next week.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:  

183N:  

• Average price: RMB 0.30/W (down) 
• Price range: RMB 0.30-0.305/W 

210RN:  

• Average price: RMB 0.28/W (flat) 

• Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W  

210N:  

• Average price: RMB 0.30/W (flat) 

• Price range: RMB 0.295-0.30/W

N-type cells by format:

• 183N: Prices slip again this week, following last week’s trend. Short-term procurement demand ahead of India’s Approved List of Cell Manufacturers (ALCM) implementation in June 2026 has been largely exhausted. Since Southeast Asian cells are exempt from India’s Basic Customs Duty (BCD) and upcoming anti-dumping duties on China, Indian producers have accelerated cell purchases from Southeast Asia, further weakening demand for Chinese cells.

• 210RN: Average price sits at RMB 0.28/W. Shipment volumes remain sluggish, leading to rising inventories. Module makers are pressing prices down to RMB 0.275/W, but no cell makers have accepted this level so far.

• 210N: Price declines continue amid falling China’s domestic demand. Low-priced orders have been delivered at RMB 0.295/W, gradually pushing the overall price range downward.
   

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:  

• The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week; in China, however, price quotes for this format has started to decrease from above RMB 0.3/W to RMB 0.295/W.

• Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

• As mentioned last week, recent export volumes have sharply declined due to U.S. tariffs.

N-type cell prices in USD:

• The average export price for 183N cells from China holds at USD 0.041/W this week. 

• Demand for Chinese cells has been exhausted earlier, lowering China’s export prices.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells utilizing non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.

With the release of preliminary AD/CVD rates on Indonesia and Laos approaching and reciprocal tariff measures in effect, many cell makers in these countries have shifted exports toward India. Direct cell shipments to the U.S. have dropped significantly.
 

Module prices in China

As the year draws to a close, market demand continues to be subdued.

The volume of order deliveries is gradually declining, with visibility for new orders remaining limited.

Following recent price drops in upstream wafers and cells, module prices have also begun to slip, with signs of a downward trend emerging.

Recent market focus has shifted to the industry association’s price cap policy and the progress of the proposed polysilicon stockpiling plan, both of which are still underway.

TOPCon module prices in China:

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W

• Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700+ W high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.

Outlook for Q4:

Demand has started to ease in October, and some manufacturers have reported lower-than-expected order volumes. Module prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the second half of October as China’s domestic demand gradually declines.

As demand drops further in the year-end, market focus is expected to shift toward order signing and production plans for 1Q26, with some manufacturers likely to adjust production schedules in advance to align with the demand cycle for 2026.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate.

Rumor has it that late 2025 may see changes.

BC module prices in Europe have also started to decline, with European manufacturers reporting inventory pile-up for 640 W modules, resulting in a downward price trend.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability term