Plunging demand fuels supply chain price negotiations

Polysilicon

Suppliers remain in a stalemate with fewer transactions after the Dragon Boat Festival. Buyers, still holding some polysilicon inventory, are pushing prices down to RMB 32–34/kg, though no significant volumes have been traded at this level. For sellers, this is a challenging period. Few orders have been finalized, and current buyer offers are below production costs. Tier-1 suppliers sustain prices.

Some new orders are trading at nearly RMB 35–36/kg this week, with the trading price range slipping. China-made granular polysilicon has seen steady deliveries, with mainstream prices staying at RMB 34–35/kg. U.S. policy changes have disrupted non-Chinese polysilicon makers’ shipments, resulting in a cautious sentiment in manufacturing. Newly-signed orders have been under negotiation recently, with fewer purchases and an average price holding at USD 19/kg.

Large-volume deals hinge on ongoing negotiations among major producers, which remain unsettled. Despite mixed market signals, polysilicon suppliers aim to stabilize prices and are assessing potential production cuts, while only a few have confirmed maintenance plans, and most show no capacity increases. Some manufacturers have slightly increased production due to capacity reallocation in June. Significant production cuts are expected around July to August, aligning with typically sluggish end-user demand.
 

Wafer

In early June, end-user demand (especially ground-mounted projects) is gradually falling, leading to a subtle shift in market sentiment.

Wafer prices have remained largely flat this week. While RN prices have seen a slight decline, they have been in line with recent trends amid stable supply-demand dynamics.

Mainstream transaction prices:

•    183N: RMB 0.93–0.95/piece (sustained)

•    210RN: RMB 1.07–1.08/piece (slipped)

•    210N: RMB 1.30/piece (sustained)

In early June, wafer production plans saw a slight MoM decline but remained largely aligned with cell demand. With most wafer manufacturers operating below cash cost, further price cuts are difficult to sustain. Notably, weakening demand for 210N modules has placed pressure on cell manufacturers. As a result, 210N cell prices continue to slip; whether this trend will further push down 210N wafer prices remains to be seen.
 

Cell in China

P-type (182P) cell prices have sustained this week: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W 

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W 

China’s demand for p-type cells is primarily for small, scattered orders. Significant price fluctuations are unlikely in the short term.

N-type cell prices this week: 

183N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.25/W (sustained) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.24-0.25/W

210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.265/W (slipped) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.26-0.27/W

210RN: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.265/W (sustained) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.265-0.27/W

Overall, cell prices diverge by format due to varying supply-demand dynamics. Prices for 210RN remain stable and may increase slightly, supported by completed production line transitions and relatively strong demand in June. In contrast, 183N and 210N cells face weaker demand due to competition from 210RN, and despite prices nearing production costs, further price declines remain likely.
 

Cell in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD: 

The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.036/W. The higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

The average export price for 183N cells from China has slipped to USD 0.033/W this week. Due to low demand and falling prices in China, cell prices for new orders continue to decline. For higher-end Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices have sat at USD 0.11–0.12/W, averaging USD 0.12/W.

The average price of Southeast Asian cells exported to the U.S. has remained flat over time. During June and July, before the end of the 90-day tariff window for the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, demand is still likely to stay well-supported. However, significant shifts in U.S. trade policies remain possible. InfoLink will continue to closely monitor developments.
 

Module in China

Although some manufacturers had considered raising prices, weak demand through early Q3 has kept increases limited. Most manufacturers are prioritizing stable pricing and delivery. Overall prices remain flat from last week. Low-priced deliveries are now being limited in volume. Due to production cuts, supply shortages have reappeared for some popular formats. However, rising export returns from non-China markets and growing module inventories are putting pressure on the market, with some spot prices showing signs of low-priced clearance.

In early May, demand was mainly driven by previously secured projects. However, demand support in the latter half of the month appears weak, with high market uncertainty. The sluggish market will likely persist through July and August. How manufacturers adjust their strategies will affect future price stability and needs close attention.

Module prices this week: 

TOPCon glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.62-0.72/W

•    Bulk orders: RMB 0.67-0.68/W

•    New orders remain at RMB 0.67-0.73/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.66-0.67/W

•    Low-priced deals, mainly for earlier ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.60–0.63/W

PERC glass-glass: 

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT: 

•    RMB 0.72-0.83/W  

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.73-0.75/W 

•    Overall deliveries may decline.

N-TBC: 

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.78-0.85/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.74-0.78/W

•    Overall price quotes exclude distributor and inventory resale pricing.
 

Module in non-China markets

Non-China markets hold steady this week, with minor price changes in Europe reflecting recent adjustments. Most companies are waiting for potential updates during the upcoming SNEC exhibition.

TOPCon module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W. In India, modules made with Chinese cells and assembled locally are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have recently begun sourcing cells from Southeast Asia.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W. With installation rush ending in China, Chinese companies are shifting more shipments overseas. After Intersolar Europe, prices start to decline. In H2, prices for ground-mounted projects are expected at USD 0.080–0.085/W.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.09/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. tariff policies, suppliers and project developers are still negotiating new quotes. Current trading prices are approaching USD 0.27–0.30/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally made modules are also trending upward.