Weak demand in June keeps market stuck in stalemate

Polysilicon

Some polysilicon orders have been concluded this week, but the ingot segment still holds inventory, keeping overall procurement slow. Only some small-volume deals have been finalized, and most supply comes from smaller manufacturers, while top makers keep prices steady.

Some new orders are trading at RMB 35–37/kg this week, with the overall price range slipping. China-made granular polysilicon has seen steady deliveries, but supply chain conditions have driven mainstream prices down to RMB 34–35/kg. U.S. policy changes have disrupted non-Chinese polysilicon makers’ shipments, resulting in a cautious sentiment in manufacturing. Newly-signed orders have been under negotiation recently, with fewer purchases and an average price holding at USD 19/kg.

Large-volume deals hinge on ongoing negotiations among major producers, which remain unsettled. Despite mixed market signals, polysilicon suppliers aim to stabilize prices and are assessing potential production cuts, while only a few have confirmed maintenance plans, and most show no capacity increases. Significant production cuts are likely around June to August, aligning with weak end-user demand. Some suppliers facing higher inventory levels are also weighing capacity adjustments to maintain stable annual output.
 

Wafer

This week, wafer prices have continued last week's trend, showing signs of stabilization. As manufacturers start cutting production and cell prices decline at a slower pace, market sentiment has slightly recovered.

Mainstream prices:

•    183N: RMB 0.95/piece

•    210RN: Mostly at RMB 1.08–1.10/piece, ranging RMB 1.05–1.10/piece

•    210N: RMB 1.30/piece (sustained)

Overall, prices appear to be bottoming out.

On the demand side, although overall momentum remains weak, end users are steadily shifting from 183N to 210RN, boosting 210RN's market share and price support. While polysilicon prices are still falling this week, 210RN cells are holding up better, helping stabilize wafer prices for now.

With policy-driven stocking coming to an end, downstream demand has weakened noticeably, and the market lacks short-term support for a price rebound. Most manufacturers are adjusting their utilization rates and production plans to ease pressure, which may help stabilize prices in the short term. However, if polysilicon and cell prices keep falling and demand stays weak, wafer prices could decline again. Overall, the wafer market is in a period of adjustment, and future prices will depend on actual production cuts and whether demand recovers.
 

Cell prices in China

P-type (182P) cell prices have sustained this week:

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W

China’s demand for p-type cells is primarily for small, scattered orders. Significant price fluctuations are unlikely in the short term.

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:

•    Average price: RMB 0.25/W (slipped)

•    Price range: RMB 0.25-0.255/W

210N:

•    Average price: RMB 0.27/W (slipped)

•    Price range: RMB 0.265-0.275/W

210RN:

•    Average price: RMB 0.265/W (sustained)

•    Price range: RMB 0.265-0.27/W

•    Low-end price increased from RMB 0.26/W to RMB 0.265/W

Cell order demand for June remains sluggish. Prices for 183N and 210N cells have continued to decline this week, while 210RN price has held steady as leading cell makers have gradually completed production line transitions and strived to stabilize prices. Low-end prices for 210RN have also edged up due to relatively stable demand.

Some cell makers have gradually reduced production in May. With cell prices now near production costs, many producers are struggling to sustain long-term operations. Given expectations of weaker end-user demand in June, whether cell prices can recover will depend on how effectively production cuts are carried out.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.036/W. The higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has slipped to USD 0.034/W this week. Due to low demand and falling prices in China, cell prices for new orders continue to decline, reaching as low as USD 0.032/W. For higher-end Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices have sat at USD 0.11–0.12/W, averaging USD 0.12/W.

The average price of Southeast Asian cells exported to the U.S. has remained flat over time. During June and July, before the end of the 90-day tariff window for the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, demand is still likely to stay well-supported. However, significant shifts in U.S. trade policies remain possible. InfoLink will continue to closely monitor developments.
 

Module prices in China

As with last week, recent price fluctuations have been minimal. Manufacturers are now focusing on stabilizing prices and maintaining controlled deliveries, with signs of price sustain emerging across the supply chain.

For modules: 

•    Tier-1 TOPCon manufacturers have set floor prices for new orders at RMB 0.65–0.66/W.

•    Low-priced deliveries are now being limited in volume.

•    Due to production cuts, supply shortages have reappeared for some popular formats.

•    Spot prices for new orders are now stable at RMB 0.67–0.72/W.

•    Utility-scale projects are delivered at RMB 0.66–0.67/W.

In early May, demand was mainly driven by previously secured projects. However, demand support in the latter half of the month appears weak, with high market uncertainty. The sluggish market will likely persist through July and August. How manufacturers adjust their strategies will affect future price stability and needs close attention.

Module prices this week: 

TOPCon glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.62-0.72/W

•    Bulk orders: RMB 0.67-0.68/W

•    Low-priced deals are becoming less common.

PERC glass-glass: 

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT: 

•    RMB 0.72-0.85/W  

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.73-0.75/W 

N-TBC:

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.7-0.86/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.78/W
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Module prices in non-China markets hold steady this week.

TOPCon module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W. In India, modules made with Chinese cells and assembled locally are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have recently begun sourcing cells from Southeast Asia.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W. With installation rush ending in China, Chinese companies are shifting more shipments overseas. After Intersolar Europe, prices start to decline. In H2, prices for ground-mounted projects are expected at USD 0.080–0.085/W.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil see prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.09/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. tariff policies, suppliers and project developers are actively negotiating new quotes. Current trading prices have slightly increased, approaching USD 0.27–0.30/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally made modules are also trending upward, with quotes above USD 0.40/W gradually becoming more common.