Global PV Customs Data Analysis Report
Uncover country-level insights and supply chain dynamics across six key markets.
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| Author | Jonathan Chou |
| Updated | October 09, 2025 |
On September 29, 2025, India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry released its final recommendation of anti-dumping (AD) duty rates PV cell and module imports from China, proposing a three-year tariff period. The investigation commenced on September 30, 2024, covering the period from April 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024. Unlike the U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) system, India typically does not conduct annual reviews of duty rates or apply them retroactively to imports before the initiation of an investigation. Therefore, once the duties are officially imposed, rates generally remain unchanged throughout the validity period.
Notably, the DGTR itself does not have the authority to impose duties; the final decision on whether and when to implement the tariffs rests with India’s Ministry of Finance (MOF). Based on previous PV-related AD cases involving auxiliary materials such as glass and encapsulant, the MOF typically announces the final imposition within one to three months after the DGTR’s recommendation.
Duty rates set at 0–30%, with further restrictions on transshipment trade
*The AD investigation follows the lesser duty rule, imposing tariffs at the lower of the dumping margin or injury margin.
In its AD investigation, identified 118 Chinese producers that export to India. Among the three sampled companies, Jinko and Trina were assigned a 0% AD rate, while Aiko received 23%. An additional 18 cooperating but non-sampled Chinese producers were assigned 23%, while all other Chinese producers were assigned 30%. In addition, India has tightened restrictions transshipment. Products manufactured in Southeast Asia and re-exported to India via China are also subject to a 30% duty.
Cell imports to stay high before duties; mid- to long-term decline inevitable
As India’s Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) for modules already bars foreign modules from government-funded projects, the current recommended AD duties will have limited impact on module imports. By contrast, considering the ALMM for cells is scheduled to take effect in June 2026 and assuming AD duties are imposed in November to December 2025, Indian manufacturers may begin stockpiling cells as early as October 2025 to avoid the duties, driving a renewed rise in near-term imports that could remain elevated through year-end.
According to InfoLink’s calculations based on customs data, India imported 5.9 GW and 6.5 GW of cells from China in July and August, up by 69% and 10% MoM, respectively. In addition to stocking ahead of the AD duties, multiple policies have also driven India’s short-term demand for cell imports, as explained below.
- China’s anti–price war policies: Such policy support has fueled expectations of rising Chinese product prices since July 2025, prompting Indian manufacturers to accelerate stocking.
- ALMM postponement: The Indian government postponed the enforcement of the ALMM for cells on government projects from those tendered after December 9, 2024, to those tendered after September 2025, while keeping the grid-connection deadline unchanged in June 2026. This has driven demand for cell imports.
- India’s GST rate reduction: On September 22, 2025, the Indian government reduced the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on cells, modules, and other renewable energy products from 12% to 5%, further improving market affordability for PV products.
While pre-duty stocking is expected to drive demand and boost imports in the short term, the overall impact will be temporary. With the ALMM for cells scheduled to take effect in June 2026, cell manufacturers serving the Indian market will face significant challenges and an inevitable medium- to long-term decline in imports. In the long run, India’s market will gradually shift toward importing upstream wafers and even polysilicon, focus on expanding domestic production capacity, and may pursue technology partnerships with Chinese and other foreign manufacturers to enhance supply-chain self-sufficiency.
